全球移民体系的形成

根据米歇尔-奥利斯（Michel Oris）的课程改编

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全球化的经济和社会史，16-21 世纪

地结构与乡村社会： 前工业化时期欧洲农民分析 ● 旧政体的人口制度：平衡状态 ● 十八世纪社会经济结构的演变： 从旧制度到现代性 ● 英国工业革命的起源和原因] ● 工业革命的结构机制 ● 工业革命在欧洲大陆的传播 ● 欧洲以外的工业革命：美国和日本 ● 工业革命的社会成本 ● 第一次全球化周期阶段的历史分析 ● 各国市场的动态和产品贸易的全球化 ● 全球移民体系的形成 ● 货币市场全球化的动态和影响：英国和法国的核心作用 ● 工业革命时期社会结构和社会关系的变革 ● 第三世界的起源和殖民化的影响 ● 第三世界的失败与障碍 ● 不断变化的工作方法： 十九世纪末至二十世纪中叶不断演变的生产关系 ● 西方经济的黄金时代： 辉煌三十年（1945-1973 年） ● 变化中的世界经济：1973-2007 年 ● 福利国家的挑战 ● 围绕殖民化：对发展的担忧和希望 ● 断裂的时代：国际经济的挑战与机遇 ● 全球化与 "第三世界 "的发展模式

这是一幅展示 1850 年至 1914 年间全球移民的历史场景。画面中的人群身着当时的服饰，携带着行李和个人物品。

在十九世纪到二十世纪初的过渡时期，在各国经济日益一体化和第一波全球化浪潮的推动下，全球移民潮逐渐形成。在这一时期，世界处于动荡之中，随着商品、服务和人口的不断流动，世界之间的联系日益紧密。在全球化刚刚起步的时代，出现了大规模的移民网络，为人们提供了跨越国界、寻找光明前景的新途径。1850 年至 1914 年间，经济一体化空前发展，各国纷纷开放移民和贸易，为全球经济结构奠定了基础，也为全球范围内人员、货物和服务的动态流动铺平了道路。经济增长和投资增加为更便捷的移民铺平了道路，而日益先进的交通工具的发展则为移民提供了支持，使人们能够比以往任何时候都走得更快、更远。在这一历史篇章中，各行各业的人们冒险前往以前似乎无法到达的土地，为当代移民制度奠定了基础，并塑造了国际移民的长期动态。

移徙的理论方法

移徙理论是一门学科，旨在破解人口流动背后的驱动力，确定个人离开原籍地前往另一地的原因。它关注多种因素--经济因素，如寻找工作机会；政治因素，如不稳定或冲突局势；环境因素，如自然灾害；以及社会和文化因素，如集体规范和习俗的变化。这一理论并不局限于研究移民的原因，而是扩展到这些人口迁移的多重复杂影响，从融合、社会互动和社会变革等方面分析对移民本身以及对东道国社区的影响。简而言之，移徙理论提供了一个分析框架，用于理解移徙如何以及为何塑造了过去和现在的社会。

不同的移民理论为研究人口流动的原因和影响提供了一系列方法。这些理论并不相互排斥，往往相互补充，从而更全面地了解移徙动态。

经济理论认为移徙是一种理性的经济选择。个人被视为经济行为主体，他们会根据工资差异、就业机会和提高生活水平的追求来决定移徙。人力资本理论和推拉模型是这一观点的一部分，强调了地区之间的经济差异如何吸引移民前往相对繁荣的地区。

政治理论则将移民主要归因于政治因素，如战争、政治压迫、迫害以及寻求人权或安全。这些理论强调，在许多情况下，移民不是一种选择，而是生存的需要，从而导致难民和寻求庇护者的流动。

环境理论强调环境变化和灾害对移民的影响。它们解释了自然灾害、气候变化和环境退化如何迫使社区迁移，以寻求更安全、更可持续的生活条件。

社会和文化理论承认社会和文化因素在移民决策中的重要性。其中包括社会网络、家庭期望、文化传统和性别规范的影响。这些理论认为，移民不仅是对物质条件的反应，也是对社会愿望和文化身份的反应。

每种理论都为理解移徙的一个方面提供了分析工具，但在实践中，移徙的原因往往是这些因素的复杂组合，反映了人类经历和全球背景的多重性。

经典移民模式的基础

经典的移民模式通常被称为新古典模式或成本效益模式，其前提是移民决定是个人对迁移相关成本和收益进行理性评估的结果。在此框架下，潜在移民将离开的经济和个人成本（如旅行费用、社会和家庭网络的损失以及进入陌生环境的固有风险）与预期收益（如更好的工作机会、更高的工资以及生活质量的改善）进行对比分析。以农民为例，该模型假定他将评估移民的直接成本（如旅费和在新地方定居）和间接成本（如与家人和社区分离）。然后，他会将这些成本与预期收益（如收入增加、获得更好的服务或个人和政治安全）进行比较。如果预期收益超过成本，该理论就表明农民更有可能做出迁移的决定。这是一种功利主义的计算方法，也可以考虑移民家庭成员的收益和成本，而不仅仅是个人的收益和成本。这一模式已被用于解释从农村到城市以及从低收入国家到高收入国家的移民潮。然而，这一模式也受到了批评，因为它过于简单化，没有考虑到可能影响移民决定的非经济因素或结构性限制。当代的移民研究认为，移民是一个复杂的过程，受到一系列相互影响的经济、社会、政治和环境因素的影响。

移徙的成本效益模式侧重于对移徙决定进行经济分析。根据这一模式，"收益 "的概念是移民国实际工资与原籍国实际工资之差的函数。实际工资的定义是工资的购买力，即根据特定地点的生活成本调整后的名义工资。国家间购买力的差异会影响移民的决定。在瑞士这样的国家，由于生活成本相对较高，高薪可能无法转化为高购买力。另一方面，如果美国提供较高的实际工资，即在考虑生活成本后，工资允许更大的储蓄和消费能力，这可能会鼓励潜在移民移居美国，前提是他们有财力承担最初的移民成本。这种模式虽然有助于理解移民经济学，但也有其局限性，因为它没有考虑到可能影响移民决定的许多其他因素。这些因素包括但不限于个人和家庭因素、移民政策、工作条件、个人安全以及现有的社会网络。此外，这种模式假定移民能够充分获取信息并根据信息采取行动，而现实情况并非总是如此，移民往往面临着巨大的不确定性和限制。

推/拉理论通常与移民地理学联系在一起，其重点是将个人推出原籍国的力量和将其拉入目的地国的力量。推动因素包括失业、贫困、饥荒、政治或社会冲突以及自然灾害等负面因素。拉动因素则是吸引移民前往新地点的积极因素，如工作机会、更好的生活条件、政治稳定、安全以及侨民社区的存在。这一理论超越了成本效益模型的简单经济等式，尽管它仍然深受经济因素的影响。例如，一个劳动力市场繁荣、工资水平高的国家可能是一个强大的拉动因素，而艰苦的生活条件则可能是一个强大的推动因素。不过，推/拉理论也承认非经济因素的影响。移民可能会受到文化因素的吸引，如目的地国已有家庭成员或社区成员，也可能会受到社会问题的排斥，如原籍国的歧视或迫害。

就移徙而言，完美市场的概念意味着工人的完全流动性，个人可以根据经济信号无摩擦地从一个市场流动到另一个市场。然而，移徙决定很少是在真空中做出的，往往受到非经济因素的强烈影响。经济决定与人际关系和个人情况交织在一起。新古典主义理论可能认为，一个人会为了在洛杉矶获得一份收入更高的工作而迁徙，但这一决定可能会受到其他因素的阻碍，如配偶的职业、家庭的稳定性、社会网络，甚至是对一个地方的情感依恋。非严格意义上的货币 "交易成本 "的重要性，如分离或背井离乡的情感成本，在简化的经济模型中并不总是被考虑在内。个人是复杂的存在，其决定受到多种因素的影响，从经济限制到个人价值观、家庭义务和主观偏好。因此，移民与许多其他生活选择一样，是复杂计算的结果，超出了传统经济模型的范围。因此，研究移民问题的经济学家和其他研究人员必须考虑到影响移民决策的各种动机和制约因素。这就需要采用多学科方法，综合经济学、社会学、心理学、地理学和政治学的观点，全面把握移民的动态。

迁移成本分析： 直接和间接成本

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移民决定包含一系列成本，这些成本并不局限于直接费用。直接成本是最显而易见的，包括与搬迁、在新地点安家以及领取第一份工资之前的初始费用相关的成本。这些成本可能相当可观，通常代表着移民的重大投资，尤其是在国际迁移的情况下。另一方面，机会成本则更为微妙，它代表了一个人在选择一种方案而不是另一种方案时所放弃的东西。就移民而言，这可能包括买回土地的机会或利用其他人离开时产生的其他经济机会的机会。这些机会成本需要与移民可能带来的好处（如收入增加或生活条件改善）进行权衡。失去社会关系是移民的另一个重大代价。家庭和社区网络在情感和实际支持个人方面发挥着至关重要的作用。与家人、朋友和原籍社区分离会对移民产生深远的心理影响，尤其是在孤独、隔离和难以融入新的社会环境方面。这些无形成本可能难以量化，但在决策过程中却至关重要。此外，移民可能需要一段适应期，在此期间，移民可能会面临语言障碍、歧视或难以找到与其技能和资历相符的工作等障碍。这些挑战可能导致额外的经济和心理成本。移民决定是一个复杂评估的结果，综合了经济因素、机会成本、无形损失和社会心理挑战。这就需要进行深入分析，超越简单的经济模型，并考虑到移徙的人文因素。

移徙背景下的经济预期是一个试图从概率和预期收益的角度评估移徙潜在益处的概念。将找到工作的概率与预期工资结合起来的等式是量化预期收益的一种方法，它是可用信息和目的地劳动力市场预期条件的函数。信息在这一计算中起着至关重要的作用。对目的地国的劳动力市场条件、工作机会和工资水平了如指掌的移民可以做出更加明智的决定，并有可能最大限度地提高其经济预期。移民网络、招聘机构和媒体往往在传播这些信息方面发挥着关键作用。然而，这其中也有不确定因素。经济状况可能瞬息万变，1921 年美国的经济衰退就导致了裁员和对移民敌意的增加。这种经济波动可将表面上安全的赌注变为高风险，突出了移民经济预期的不稳定性。因此，考虑风险和不确定性是移民经济理论的一个重要方面。移民可以通过了解情况、在劳动力需求旺盛时期移民或选择移民政策较为稳定的国家来尽量降低风险。然而，由于国家经济和政策本身的不可预测性以及移民的个人情况，风险永远不可能完全消除。经济预期为预测移民的好处提供了一个框架，但必须谨慎看待，要考虑到移民过程中经常出现的风险和不确定性。

流动因素： 人力资本的作用

人力资本在理解与移徙相对应的不流动性方面发挥着核心作用。旅行成本是决定一个人是否有能力移徙的基本要素。由于原籍国的贫困或其他不利条件，最有可能从移徙中获益的人往往恰恰是那些无力承担移徙初期费用的人。这种移民悖论是移民研究领域的一个主要问题。生活贫困的人可能缺乏经济资本来支付旅费、签证费、初期住宿费和其他与移民相关的费用。但人力资本并不局限于财政资源，它还包括教育、技能、工作经验和社会网络，这些都能促进移徙或不流动。教育程度较高、拥有专业技能和良好社会网络的人更容易找到合法移民的机会，并能获得帮助他们克服经济和监管障碍的资源。另一方面，那些缺乏这些人力资本属性的人可能会发现自己处于受限的不流动状态，尽管他们有移民的愿望或需求，但却无法实现。此外，移民的决定往往受到人力资本投资回报计算的影响。如果潜在移民认为其人力资本的收益在目的地国得不到认可或回报（例如，由于职位低或歧视），他们可能会不顾经济困难而选择留下。

本地化知识的概念反映了特定地理、文化或经济环境下特有的知识和技能的重要性。在 19 世纪，由于世界不同地区的农业实践、气候条件、土壤耕作和工作方法存在明显差异，技能的本地化尤为突出。19 世纪的日内瓦农民可能已经掌握了适应瑞士农业条件的技能和知识，但这些技能和知识可能无法直接转移到截然不同的环境中，如美国西部荒野。栽培技术、水资源管理、作物种类和季节条件差异很大，使得某些知识具有原产地的特殊性。丹麦人的例子说明，受过良好教育、在多个领域拥有丰富知识的人如何能够更好地适应新环境并取得成功。多样化的教育和较高的文化水平可以使移民更具应变能力，能够重新调整自己的技能，以满足新居住地的需求。这可能是丹麦移民成功的原因之一，他们能够运用更广泛、适应性更强的技能来应对在新家园面临的挑战。这个例子突出说明了技能的可转移性在移民中的重要性。在当今世界，教育和职业培训通常旨在使个人掌握可在各种情况下应用的可转移技能，以提高他们的流动性和移民成功的机会。

投资，尤其是对土地等财产资产的投资，可以起到锚定作用，并影响迁移或停留的决定。尤其是土地所有者，他们可能不愿意迁移，因为他们在土地上进行了大量的投资，包括资金和个人投资。土地不仅是收入来源，还代表着家族遗产、身份认同的一部分以及社会和情感稳定的地方。如果土地是家族世代相传的财产，如果土地与特定的社会地位相关联，或者如果房地产市场的情况使出售土地无法在其他地方收回同等的投资，那么出售或放弃土地的决定就会特别困难。这类资产通常被认为是流动性差的资产，也就是说，无法在不造成重大价值损失的情况下将其迅速转化为现金。相反，租户一般没有同样的限制。由于与房产没有深厚的经济或情感联系，他们可以更加灵活地应对其他地方的机会。在经济变化或不稳定时期，这种流动性可以成为一种优势，使他们能够在其他地区或国家寻求新的就业或生活机会。然而，即使是租房者也可能面临流动性障碍，如目的地地区住房稀缺和成本高昂，或对社区的其他形式投资，如社会网络和职业关系。因此，对财产和其他形式资产的投资可能会对移民决定产生重大影响，成为强化不流动性的锚定因素，使离开的决定更加昂贵和复杂。

社会网络是移民过程的重要组成部分，对移民的成功与否起着决定性作用。这些由家人、朋友、熟人、同胞甚至社区组织组成的网络提供了重要的支持，有助于在目的地国定居和融入。对于新移民来说，在移民社区内建立联系可以极大地帮助他们应对复杂的劳动力市场和住房系统。例如，社区成员可以分享有关工作机会的信息，为新移民推荐职位，或就如何在新环境中有效地寻找工作提供建议。他们还可以提供或介绍负担得起的住房选择，这对于初到一个国家、还不熟悉当地规范和程序的人来说尤为重要。除了在找工作或住房方面提供实际帮助外，社交网络还可以提供重要的情感和心理支持。移民可能是一种与世隔绝的经历，拥有一个支持网络可以帮助移民克服孤独感，帮助他们适应新的文化。社会网络也可能在移民的最初决定中发挥作用。网络移民理论认为，移民与目的地国同胞之前建立的联系会促进每一次移民行为。这些联系降低了移民的成本和风险，而他们创造的新机会可能会鼓励其他人跟进。然而，原籍国强大的社会网络也有可能成为阻碍移民的固定因素。离开亲密关系和完整社会结构的前景可能是决定离开的主要阻碍因素。

移民系统动力学和移民潮

过去的移民制度和移民浪潮塑造了我们今天生活的世界。特别是在 19 世纪下半叶至 20 世纪初这一时期，人口大规模流动，主要是从欧洲流向美洲，也有在世界其他地区之间流动。大西洋体系 "指的是欧洲移民向北美和南美的大规模流动。这一系统的特点是数千万人移居国外，他们离开原籍国的原因多种多样，包括寻找土地、躲避迫害或政治动乱以及寻找经济机会。爱尔兰、意大利、德国和斯堪的纳维亚等欧洲国家是美国的主要移民来源国，美国当时鼓励移民，以增加其广阔领土上的人口，促进其经济增长。太平洋体系 "是指亚洲人，主要是中国人和日本人，向太平洋周边国家，如美国（特别是加利福尼亚和夏威夷）、加拿大和澳大利亚的移民。这些地区的种植园、铁路和其他快速发展的工业对劳动力的需求推动了这些移民。然而，亚洲移民往往面临着严重的歧视和排斥政策，这些政策限制了他们的移民权和公民权利。这些移民制度不仅仅是历史现象，它们给东道国和母国社会留下了持久的烙印，塑造了这些国家的人口、经济、文化和政治。在这些移民浪潮中建立起来的侨民社区继续影响着国际关系、贸易和国家间的文化交流。如今，"移民体系 "一词也可用于描述更为现代的移民模式，包括拉丁美洲与美国之间、非洲与欧洲之间以及亚太地区内部的移民流动。这些体系受到全球经济、政治和环境因素以及接收国移民政策的影响。

尽管跨大西洋移民流向北美洲的人数最多，但南美洲和非洲在同一时期也接收了欧洲移民，尽管程度较低。在南美洲，阿根廷、巴西和乌拉圭等国已成为欧洲移民的主要目的地。例如，阿根廷在 19 世纪末和 20 世纪初积极鼓励欧洲移民，以增加国家人口和发展经济。意大利人和西班牙人尤其在这些移民中占了很大比例，他们的影响至今仍可见于这些南美国家的文化和社会中。就非洲而言，向英法殖民地的人口迁移往往与种植园、矿山和基础设施建设以及殖民管理对劳动力的需求有关。例如，英国人移居南非、肯尼亚和罗得西亚（今津巴布韦）等国，而法国人则前往阿尔及利亚和西非等地区。这些移民到非洲的特点往往是建立了小规模的欧洲人社区，他们在殖民结构下保持着特权地位。许多移民试图利用殖民地的经济机会，却无意永久定居。这些移民对南美洲和非洲产生了深远的影响，导致了社会、经济和政治变革。在南美洲，这导致了文化多样性的增加和多元文化社会的出现。在非洲，殖民主义和欧洲人口定居的后果更为复杂，其特点往往是剥削和社会政治紧张局势，甚至在殖民地独立后依然存在。这些人口迁移说明了移民的动机和背景多种多样，并表明即使规模很小，移民也对世界各地的社会发展产生了持久的影响。

根据移民的原籍国和抵达时间，移民美国的时期通常被分为所谓的 "老移民 "和 "新移民"。

老移民（1880 年以前）： 在这一时期，大多数移民来自北欧和西欧国家，特别是英国、德国和斯堪的纳维亚国家。这些第一波移民在美国的早期发展中发挥了重要作用，并给美国文化，尤其是英语，留下了持久的烙印。德国和斯堪的纳维亚移民也带来了他们自己的语言、文化和传统，但随着时间的推移，英语成为了主要语言，这反映了英国移民的优势以及英语在美国经济、政治和社会生活中的重要性。

新移民（1880 年后）： 19 世纪末，移民的特征开始发生变化。越来越多的移民来自南欧和东欧，特别是意大利、俄罗斯和其他斯拉夫国家。这股新的移民潮与美国快速的工业化和城市发展相吻合，为不断扩张的工厂、建筑和基础设施吸引了大量工人。吸引这些移民的往往是经济机会的承诺，以及逃离本国的经济困境、政治限制或迫害。

从旧移民到新移民的转变反映了美国和欧洲的经济和社会变化。旧移民帮助殖民地和早期美国各州奠定了文化和语言基础，而新移民则促进了文化多样性，并在 19 世纪末和 20 世纪初的经济扩张中发挥了关键作用。这些人口迁移也带来了融合方面的挑战，引发了社会紧张局势，导致二十世纪初出现了排外主义时期，并通过了更严格的移民法。尽管如此，美国仍然是一个移民历史和移民对其社会和经济所作贡献留下深刻烙印的国家。

初来乍到者在东道国社会中占据主导地位，而新移民则努力融入社会，这是包括美国在内的许多移民背景的共同历史特征。在第一波移民潮中抵达美国的移民有时间优势，可以扎根美国、积累财富、创建社会和政治网络，并学习如何适应新环境。在大规模移民潮开始到来之前，这些早期抵达的移民就有机会定居并融入社会，他们往往能够利用不断扩张的国家所提供的机会，如购买廉价土地或获得有影响力的政治职位。尤其是土地的获取，使许多早期移民成为成功的地主，赋予他们相当高的经济和社会地位。同样，在政治舞台上，他们往往能够更好地参与公共生活并影响政策决定，尤其是与移民法和外交政策相关的政策决定。较晚抵达的移民，尤其是 1880 年后的 "新移民"，往往发现美国社会已处于结构化进程中，经济、社会和语言障碍较高。由于语言、宗教和习俗不同，这些群体面临着更大的偏见和歧视，被认为更难融入社会。在这样一个环境中，有影响力的职位大多已由第一批移民占据，新移民往往只能从事收入微薄的工作，生活条件岌岌可危，在社会中处于边缘地位。第一批移民和新移民在经历上的差异反映在围绕同化、文化多元化和美国身份定义等问题的历史紧张关系中。接连不断的移民潮不断重塑着美国社会，每个移民群体都为美国的多样性和复杂性做出了贡献，尽管他们在寻求融入和认可的过程中面临着不同的挑战。

推动洲际移民的因素

交通对移民的影响

19 世纪，交通对洲际移民至关重要，从根本上改变了人们长途旅行和在新地方定居的能力。以前的旅程漫长而危险，但随着蒸汽轮船的出现，远洋航程变得更快、更安全、更可预测。这些轮船可以运载大量乘客，使更多的人可以进行移民。与此同时，铁路的发展彻底改变了陆路交通。这些网络将各国内陆与海港连接起来，方便了人们前往登船港口，并在抵达目的地后对内陆地区进行殖民。例如，在美国，铁路使移民能够遍布全国，这对西部的发展和征服至关重要。这些交通方面的进步对世界经济和人口产生了深远影响。它们不仅鼓励了大规模移民，而且由于劳动力的涌入和新土地的开发，还促进了东道国的经济增长。尤其是农业，由于有了大片土地，农业得到了蓬勃发展，吸引了那些寻求逃离欧洲过多人口和恶劣经济条件的人们。此外，大量货物的运输能力迅速推动了世界贸易，促进了相互关联的全球经济的出现。移民在这一过程中发挥了关键作用，他们在原籍国和新家园之间运输货物和思想，加强了各大洲之间的经济和文化联系。19 世纪运输技术的进步是洲际移民时代的关键因素，通过前所未有的人员流动和经济交流的增加，帮助塑造了我们的现代世界。

19 世纪运输成本的降低对跨洋移民的增加起到了重要作用。成本的降低主要归功于海运组织的改进。美国的保护主义限制进口，导致许多船舱使用率低下的船只离港，为应对这种情况，航运公司想方设法使其返回美国的航程更有利可图。在此背景下，移民公司应运而生。这些公司专门从事移民运输，优化利用原本空着的船舱空间。它们不仅降低了移民的票价，还增加了载客量，从而将过去无利可图的成本转化为有利可图的机会。此外，这些公司开始积极将美国作为目的地进行宣传，利用广告以土地、工作和更美好生活的承诺吸引移民。他们播放美国田园生活的画面和成功故事，鼓励人们踏上旅途。这种广告利用了人们的希望和愿望，助长了向美国的大规模人口流动。运输成本的下降和移民公司的营销努力共同刺激了大规模移民，使越来越多的欧洲人踏上了前往美洲的旅程，并塑造了两大洲的人口和经济概况。

人口结构转型对移民的影响

18 世纪，原始工业的兴起和收入来源的多样化标志着欧洲开始了一场深刻的经济和社会变革。在这一时期，生活条件的改善导致死亡率下降，这一趋势在 19 世纪随着公共卫生的改善、疫苗接种和抗生素的使用等医学进步而加速。

然而，在死亡率下降的同时，出生率在 19 世纪的大部分时间里仍然居高不下。出生和死亡之间的这种不平衡导致了人口的快速增长，直到 1875 年出生率开始下降时，人口增长才开始放缓。从高死亡率和高出生率到低死亡率和低出生率的人口转变在 20 世纪 50 年代在发达国家普遍完成，导致人口压力减小。

欧洲人口的强劲增长对经济产生了重大影响，尤其是对处于工作年龄的年轻一代。随着越来越多的人进入劳动力市场，而经济并不总是能提供足够的就业机会，许多欧洲人发现自己面临着机会匮乏的问题。这导致移民人数增加，因为人们要到国外寻找新的机会，特别是在美洲，那里有土地，对劳动力的需求很高，可以支持工业化和经济扩张。

移民起到了安全阀的作用，既减轻了人口压力，又为移民提供了创造更美好生活的机会。交通和通信的进步促进了这一移民过程，使洲际旅行更加方便，费用更低，从而使大部分人口能够参与 19 世纪的大移民运动。

城市化和工业化的影响

德国人在第一波移民美国的浪潮中占有重要地位，移民高峰出现在十九世纪。这一时期正值德国面临各种经济和政治压力，包括拿破仑战争的后果、农业危机以及政治和宗教限制，这些因素驱使许多德国人到其他地方寻求更好的生活。然而，随着德国进入工业革命的第二波浪潮，情况开始发生变化。工业化改变了德国的经济，为繁荣的城市和新兴的工业创造了新的就业机会。由于德国的经济前景变得更具吸引力，这起到了减少移民的作用。

从 19 世纪 80 年代起，随着奥托-冯-俾斯麦首相领导下的工业化进程加快以及新兴福利国家的发展，德国的生活质量和经济机会都得到了提高。例如，制造业、工程和化工领域的工作变得更加丰富，薪酬也更高。与此同时，德国的移民人数也在下降，因为越来越少的人认为有必要离开祖国去寻找工作或经济机会。此外，德国的保护主义经济政策，如保护新兴产业的进口关税，也促进了经济的繁荣和自给自足。这使得留在德国比移民更具吸引力。

在这种情况下，德国人向美国和其他国家移民的人数减少，可以看作是日益工业化的德国经济条件改善和就业机会增加的直接结果。几十年前，德国人可能认为移民是一个可行的选择，但现在，他们找到了新的理由留在这个未来前景光明的国家。

政治、土地结构和经济危机的影响

第一次全球化发生在十九世纪末二十世纪初，其特点是国际贸易和资本流动急剧增加，人口大规模跨国流动。虽然这一时期带来了前所未有的经济增长和新市场的开放，但也出现了经济危机和萧条，其中一些危机和萧条因政府政策而加剧。欧洲的农业结构通常以小型农场和集约农业为基础，它们发现自己与美国的大规模机械化农业形成了直接竞争。由于运输成本降低以及仓储和物流方面的创新，廉价的美国小麦大量涌入欧洲市场，导致农产品价格暴跌。这对欧洲农民造成了毁灭性影响，因为他们无法与生产成本更低的美国小麦竞争。

1873-1890 年的农业大萧条就是一个显著的例子。引发这次大萧条的原因不仅是美洲廉价农产品的涌入，还有欧洲的一系列歉收，这加剧了价格的下跌和农民的经济压力。当时的政治体制以不同的方式应对这场危机。一些政权采取保护主义措施，试图保护当地农民，而另一些政权则鼓励移民，以此缓解农村地区的人口和经济压力。这些政策的效果各不相同，有的成功稳定了当地农业市场，有的则导致贸易紧张和国际移民增加。第一次全球化带来了重大的经济挑战。这个时代的危机和萧条往往是全球化市场力量和政策干预之间复杂相互作用的结果，凸显了适应日益相互关联的经济现实的困难。

意大利的情况： 移民与农业危机

The Great Agricultural Depression of 1873-1890 was a major catalyst for waves of emigration from Europe to the United States, with Italy being a striking example of this phenomenon. The agricultural situation in Italy, particularly in the period leading up to and during this depression, was marked by feudal structures and an outdated agrarian system.

In 1873, the Italian peasantry was still operating within a framework in which land was predominantly held by the nobility and religious orders. This ownership structure limited economic opportunities for small farmers and agricultural workers, who were often subjected to harsh working conditions and endemic poverty. The arrival of cheap agricultural products from America, such as wheat, exacerbated these conditions by causing local prices to plummet, making the situation of farmers even more precarious.

In Veneto and other parts of Italy, the collapse of the agricultural system and the resulting economic depression led many people to emigrate. Seeking to escape poverty and economic stagnation, many Italians saw emigration as an opportunity to build a new life in countries offering better economic prospects, notably the United States. This emigration was often envisaged as a temporary solution, with the hope of returning to Italy once savings had been made, but for many it has become permanent.

This pattern of emigration was not unique to Italy. Other countries in the Mediterranean basin, facing similar challenges with their obsolete agrarian systems and the economic pressure of competition from global markets, also experienced large waves of emigration. These population movements have had a significant impact on the countries of origin and destination, changing the demography, economy and even the cultural fabric of these societies.

Famine in Ireland and Migratory Consequences

The Great Irish Potato Famine of 1845 to 1847 was a tragic and significant episode in the history of migration. Ireland's dependence on the potato, a staple food for a large proportion of the population, made the country particularly vulnerable to potato blight, which destroyed crops. This disaster occurred in a context where Ireland was largely rural, with archaic agricultural structures and a population mainly made up of poor farmers.

Ireland's colonial relationship with Britain exacerbated the crisis. British policies prohibiting Ireland from industrialising, despite its proximity to major industrial centres such as Manchester, prevented the economic development that might have offered alternatives to agricultural dependence. So when the famine struck, there was no industrial sector to absorb the surplus labour or mitigate the economic impact.

The famine, coupled with epidemics and repressive policies towards the poor and beggars, led to a massive humanitarian crisis. As a result, around two million Irish emigrated, most of them to the United States. This wave of emigration had a profound impact on Ireland, significantly reducing its population, and on the United States, where Irish immigrants formed large communities and influenced culture and society.

The famine in Finland in 1860 offers an interesting parallel. Like Ireland, Finland, then under Russian rule, suffered from external policies that limited its economic development and increased its vulnerability to agricultural crises. These examples illustrate how colonial and imperial policies can have devastating effects on sub-dominant populations, often leading to massive migratory movements in response to economic and humanitarian crises.

The Jewish Residence Zone in Russia and its Implications

The Russian Jewish Residence Zone, established in the present-day territories of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, was a significant and often tragic part of Jewish history between 1791 and 1917. Established by Catherine the Great, this zone was a huge 'ghetto' where the Jews of Russia were forced to live. Although it restricted freedom of movement and imposed severe economic limitations, the Residence Zone also became an important centre for Jewish culture and education. Institutions such as the Hebrew University in Vilnius were established there, testifying to a flourishing cultural and intellectual life despite the restrictions. The situation for Jews in the Zone of Residence deteriorated sharply from 1881 onwards, with the assassination of Tsar Alexander II. This event triggered waves of anti-Semitic violence, known as pogroms, which resulted in the death, destruction of property and worsening living conditions for many Jews. The pogroms intensified in 1905, following Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, with Jews often used as scapegoats for the frustrations and failures of the Russian Empire.

This violence and continued oppression led to a significant wave of emigration of Jewish populations from the Residence Zone. Many Jews chose to migrate to North America, particularly the United States, in search of security, freedom and better economic opportunities. This migration had a considerable impact both on the communities they left behind and on the societies into which they integrated, bringing with them their culture, knowledge and resilience. Jewish migration from the Area of Residence to other parts of the world is a poignant example of how persecution and political instability can lead to massive population movements, redefining communities and identities across the globe.

The Role of Port Cities in Attracting the United States

The mass migrations of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries had a profound influence on the development of many European cities, particularly port cities, but in a different way from what might be expected. On the one hand, some migrants who arrived in European ports hoping to continue their journey to other destinations found themselves forced to settle in these cities because they lacked the financial means to continue their journey. These port cities, such as Hamburg, Liverpool and Marseille, have seen their population and cultural diversity grow significantly, with the formation of new ethnic communities and a notable contribution to the economic and cultural life of these cities.

On the other hand, the decision of some migrants to stay in these port cities was also based on an economic calculation. After comparing real wages - i.e. wages adjusted for the cost of living - in their country of origin with those in the destination country, some concluded that the economic situation was ultimately more advantageous in Europe. This decision was often influenced by disillusionment with the myth of countries such as the United States, perceived as lands of opportunity but where the reality could prove more difficult in terms of language barriers, lack of skilled employment opportunities, and discrimination.

Migration not only transformed the host societies in America, but also had a considerable impact on European cities, changing their demography and urban development. These port cities have become crossroads for diverse cultures, shaping their unique character and playing an important role in the history of migration.

Migration Causality Modelling

The continuity of migration, even after the end of a specific crisis, can be understood by taking into account the complexity and interdependence of the factors that influence migration. Migration is not triggered by a single event or condition, but rather results from a combination of factors that interact and complement each other. One of the crucial elements is the cumulative effect of previous migrations. Previous migrations create diaspora communities in destination countries, which in turn encourage and facilitate the arrival of new migrants. This form of chain migration means that population movements can continue even after the initial cause has disappeared. Crises, in addition to their immediate impact, can bring about lasting societal and cultural changes. These changes can permanently alter economic and social structures, as well as people's aspirations and expectations, which can continue to motivate migration long after the crisis is over. In addition, perceptions and expectations play an important role. Perceived opportunities abroad, often idealised through the success stories of previous migrants, may continue to motivate migration. These perceptions can persist even when reality is different, fuelling continued migration. Protracted economic and political conditions resulting from previous crises can also fuel migration. For example, major economic transformations or high unemployment persisting after the end of the crisis can drive people to seek better opportunities elsewhere. The migration policies of destination countries and international legislation also influence the continuity of migration. More liberal policies and agreements facilitating migration can encourage a continuous flow of migrants. Finally, once migration becomes a viable and recognised option, it can become a standard response to economic or social challenges, even in the absence of an acute crisis. This social and economic inertia can maintain the movement of populations long after the problems that initially motivated it have been resolved. Taken as a whole, migration is a dynamic and multifactorial process, where various social, economic, political and personal factors intermingle, often creating a momentum that perpetuates migration beyond its initial causes.

The Irish potato crisis of 1845, also known as the Great Famine, was a major trigger for Irish emigration to the United States. This disaster, combined with the development of steam navigation making transatlantic travel more accessible and affordable, coincided with the perception of the United States as a place of dreams and opportunity. These factors led to a mass emigration of two million Irish, a movement that continued even after the famine was over.

The fact that migration continued even after 1914, when average wages in Ireland and the US had become similar, illustrates the complexity of the reasons for migration. This suggests that decisions to migrate are not solely dependent on immediate economic considerations, but also on wider and sometimes more nuanced factors. Firstly, emigration had already created established networks in the United States. These Irish diaspora communities offered support, information and opportunities for newcomers, making migration to the US more attractive and less risky. Secondly, perceptions and expectations of the US as a land of opportunity continued to play a major role. The 'American dream', fuelled by stories of success and an idealisation of life in the United States, maintained its appeal, even though the economic reality had become less favourable. Thirdly, the long-term effects of the Great Famine and British policies in Ireland may have left deep economic and social scars, influencing the decision to continue emigrating. The collective memory of the famine, as well as the quest for greater political and economic stability, may have contributed to continued emigration. Finally, migration, once it has become common practice, can be self-sustaining. The decision to migrate is often influenced by the actions of those who left before, creating a chain migration phenomenon that can persist regardless of initial economic conditions. Although average wages may have levelled out between Ireland and the US, other factors such as social networks, cultural perceptions, history and established migration dynamics have continued to motivate Irish people to migrate to the US.

Empowerment of migration flows is a crucial concept in understanding why migration often continues even after the initial causes have disappeared. This phenomenon implies that, once migration begins in response to certain conditions or crises, it tends to develop its own dynamic that sustains it beyond the resolution of these initial conditions. In the case of Irish emigration to the United States, for example, the Great Famine was the trigger. However, once Irish communities were established in the US and migrant networks were created, these networks began to play an autonomous role in promoting and facilitating further migration. Diaspora communities not only provide information and support to new arrivals, but also create a sense of belonging and connection with the destination country, regardless of the economic or political conditions that initially motivated the migration. In addition, chain migration, where migrants follow family members, friends or fellow citizens to the destination country, is becoming an important driver of continued migration. These social and family networks may be more influential in migration decisions than economic or political factors. In addition, perceptions and expectations can also play a role in empowering migration flows. Myths and narratives around destination countries, such as the "American dream" in the context of the United States, continue to attract migrants even if the economic reality is different from the idealised image. Migration flows, once initiated, can acquire an autonomy from their original causes. Social networks, cultural expectations and chain migration dynamics help to maintain and amplify these flows, even in the absence of the conditions that initially triggered them. This explains why migration can continue at a sustained pace even after the circumstances that triggered the initial migration movement have changed or disappeared.

Much of the explanation for the empowerment of migration flows, particularly in the context of Irish migration to the USA, lies in the role of social networks and communication between migrants and their families back home. When an Irish migrant settles in the United States, the letters and information he or she sends to his or her family in Ireland play a crucial role in the continuation of the migration. These letters offer reliable and practical information about life in the United States, including advice on immigration procedures, job opportunities, areas to live in and areas to avoid. This direct and reliable communication builds the confidence of family and friends back in Ireland, as it comes from sources they know and trust. It creates a tangible link between the country of origin and the country of destination, reducing the uncertainty and perceived risk associated with migration. By providing a social network and support, settled migrants encourage other family and community members to join them. This phenomenon is a typical example of chain migration, where migrants follow in the footsteps of those who came before them, creating established migration patterns and reinforcing the dynamics of migration flows. Furthermore, those who choose to migrate are often the most open and enterprising individuals, those who are willing to take risks and seek out new opportunities. This can lead to a kind of self-perpetuating selection, where those who remain in their country of origin are often more conservative or less inclined to take risks. Irish migration to the United States illustrates how social networks and communication between migrants and their families can create and maintain migration flows. These dynamics also show how migration can transform not only host societies, but also communities of origin, often shaping the composition and attitudes of these populations over the long term.

Integration and Assimilation: The American Case

Social Dichotomy: Dominants (WASP) vs Dominated

The integration and assimilation of immigrants in the United States has always been a complex process, influenced by pre-existing power dynamics and social structures. In the American context, White Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPs) have long been the dominant group, both politically and economically. This dominance reflects the legacy of the old migration, mainly British, Scandinavian and German, which formed the basis of American society from its beginnings.

These groups, because of their ethnic origins and religious affiliation (Protestant), have often been seen as the 'core' of American identity. They have played a major role in shaping the political and economic institutions of the United States and have long held a privileged position in the country's social and cultural hierarchy.

The election of John F. Kennedy as President in 1960 marked a significant turning point in American history. Kennedy was not only of Irish origin, but also Catholic, which distinguished him from the WASP profile traditionally associated with American political leaders. His presidency symbolised a degree of openness in American society and indicated an evolution in the acceptance of ethnic and religious groups that had previously been marginalised or kept out of the spheres of power.

Kennedy's presidency also reflected and perhaps contributed to wider changes in American society regarding the integration and assimilation of different ethnic and religious groups. His success as the first Irish-Catholic President challenged some of the traditional norms and expectations of who could achieve power in American society.

Immigrant Community Formation and Urban Segmentation

The empowerment of migratory flows has played a key role in the formation of immigrant communities and the segmentation of space in American cities, as evidenced by neighbourhoods such as Chinatown and Little Italy. This phenomenon is explained by the tendency of migrants to join family members or acquaintances who have already settled in the destination country. These family and social networks offer vital support to new arrivals, making it easier for them to settle in and integrate.

In this context, migrants tend to group together with other members of their community, creating ethnic enclaves within cities. These neighbourhoods, such as Chinatown for Chinese immigrants or Little Italy for Italian immigrants, serve as gathering places where cultural traditions, language and social practices can be preserved and passed on. They also provide a space where migrants can support each other, both economically and socially.

As far as the Italian mafia is concerned, its emergence in the United States is linked to the challenges faced by Italian immigrants, particularly in terms of protection against aggression and discrimination. In the absence of adequate support structures and faced with marginalisation, some members of the Italian community turned to clandestine organisations for protection and to advance their interests. However, it is important to note that these organisations, although sometimes presented as protectors of the community, often engaged in criminal activities and had a complex and sometimes negative impact on the communities they claimed to serve.

These ethnic neighbourhoods and community structures are evidence of how immigrants have shaped and continue to shape the cultural and social landscape of American cities. They reflect the challenges, coping strategies, and contributions of immigrants to American society.

Integration Challenges for New Immigrants

Sedimentation theory in the context of immigration to the United States provides a framework for understanding how different waves of immigrants are integrated into American society and how perceptions and treatments of these groups change over time. This theory suggests that each new wave of immigrants initially experiences integration challenges, including experiences of discrimination and racism, but that these challenges diminish with the arrival of later groups.

In the case of the 'new wave' immigrants, mainly Italians and Slavs, who arrived in the United States in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, they faced significant integration challenges. Because of their cultural, linguistic and religious differences from the Protestant Anglo-Saxon majority, these groups were often perceived as 'outsiders' who were difficult to assimilate.

According to sedimentation theory, these groups were subject to prejudice and initial marginalisation. However, with the arrival of new waves of immigrants, previously marginalised groups began to be perceived as more integrated or 'Americanised'. For example, Irish and German immigrants, who had previously been discriminated against, saw their status improve relatively with the arrival of Italian and Slavic immigrants. This dynamic illustrates a pattern where the latest arrivals are often the most marginalised and face the greatest degree of discrimination. As these groups settle, integrate economically and politically, and as new groups arrive, the perception and treatment of these earlier immigrant communities changes.

This theory simplifies a complex reality and that integration and assimilation are multifactorial processes influenced by many factors, including government policies, economic conditions, and broader social attitudes. Nevertheless, sedimentation theory offers a useful insight into how integration dynamics can evolve within a society with successive waves of immigration.

Consequences of Industrialisation on American Society

At the end of the nineteenth century, America underwent significant changes in its economic and social landscape, due in part to the end of the Wild West conquest and rapid industrialisation. The closing of the western frontier, often symbolised by the 1890 census declaring the end of the American 'frontier', marked a turning point in the opportunities available to immigrants and American citizens.

For decades, westward migration had been a route for many Americans and immigrants to become landowners. This westward expansion, although tragically conflictive and devastating for the indigenous populations, was seen as an opportunity for prosperity and individual success, symbolised by access to land ownership. However, with the effective end of this expansion, the opportunities for owning land and establishing oneself as an independent farmer diminished considerably. At the same time, the United States underwent rapid industrialisation, with the development of large factories and the growing need for labour in urban areas. Immigrants arriving at this time therefore found themselves in a different situation to previous generations. Instead of turning to agriculture and land reclamation, they turned to industrial jobs, becoming employees in factories often characterised by difficult working conditions, low wages and long hours.

This transition had several implications. Firstly, it meant a shift in the American dream from land ownership to industrial employment. Secondly, the influx of labour helped to keep wages low, creating difficult economic conditions for many workers, both immigrants and native-born. Thirdly, it reinforced the class divide, as the ability to own land, a symbol of success and independence, became less and less accessible. The end of the Wild West conquest and industrialisation marked a major period of transition in American history, redefining the opportunities and challenges facing immigrants and citizens alike. These changes also helped to shape the country's socio-economic structure, with repercussions that were felt well beyond this period.

In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the United States experienced a decline in social fluidity, making upward mobility more difficult for many. This period saw the emergence and popularisation of certain American myths, notably that of the self-made man and the cowboy, which reflected the ideal of individual success and independence. However, the historical and social reality of these myths was often more complex and diverse than popular representations suggest. The myth of the self-made man, which celebrates an individual's ability to rise socially and economically through hard work and ingenuity, gained popularity during this period. This myth was reinforced by stories of entrepreneurs and industrialists who, starting from nothing, built up fortunes and prosperous businesses. However, this narrative often masked the structural barriers and inequalities that made such upward mobility difficult for the majority of people, particularly immigrants, ethnic minorities and the working classes. As far as the cowboy myth is concerned, the popular image of the cowboy as a heroic, solitary and fearless figure of the American West was largely white and masculinised. Nevertheless, historical reality shows that cowboys were in fact very diverse racially and ethnically. Many were black, Asian, Hispanic and Native American. This diversity reflects the multicultural nature of the American frontier, although this reality has frequently been obscured in dominant cultural narratives and representations. This period in American history saw the emergence of powerful myths about individual achievement and adventure, which were both a source of inspiration and, at times, a veil over more complex social and economic realities. Declining social mobility and increasing difficulties of economic ascent contrasted with these idealised narratives, revealing the tensions between the American ideal and the lived experiences of many citizens and immigrants to the United States.

Rising Xenophobia and Migration Restriction Policies

Xenophobia and border closures in the United States developed in two distinct phases, reflecting the tensions and changes in American society at the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth.

The period from the end of the 19th century (1890 - 1900) was marked by a rise in xenophobia, largely due to the massive arrival of new wave immigrants, particularly from Italy, Russia and other Eastern and Southern European countries. These immigrants, often Catholic or Jewish, differed culturally and religiously from the predominantly Protestant populations of Anglo-Saxon and Germanic origin. Their arrival caused concern among some sections of the American population, who feared that these new arrivals would not be able to assimilate or that they would threaten jobs and economic stability. This period saw the emergence of nativist movements and restrictive laws, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, which aimed to limit the immigration of certain groups. The end of the First World War marked a second phase of xenophobia and border closures. This period was characterised by an intensification of anti-immigrant sentiment, exacerbated by post-war fears of political radicalism (such as communism and anarchism) and an economic recession. The "Red Scare" of 1919-1920, a period of intense fear of communism in the United States, was often associated with immigrants, particularly those from Eastern Europe. In response to these fears, the United States passed increasingly restrictive immigration laws, such as the Quota Acts of 1921 and 1924, which introduced strict quotas based on national origins and significantly reduced immigration from many countries.

These two periods reflect the tensions and challenges faced by the United States in integrating successive waves of immigrants into a rapidly changing society. The xenophobia and restrictive policies of the time had a lasting impact on the US immigration landscape, shaping both the perceptions and experiences of immigrants and US migration policies for decades.

During the first period of xenophobia in the United States at the end of the nineteenth century, specific racism targeting Asians and African-Americans was noticeable. This racism was partly fuelled by the fear that whites would become a minority in the face of a perceived increase in the Asian and black population. This feeling was reinforced by demographic changes, notably the decline in the birth rate from 1875 onwards, which was more pronounced among affluent whites than among the often economically disadvantaged black and Asian communities. This fear of being swamped by non-white populations led to discriminatory policies and racial laws. For example, the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was one of the first and most significant of these laws, banning the immigration of Chinese workers. It set a precedent for further discriminatory legislation against Asians.

Japan's victory over Russia in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 exacerbated these fears in the United States, fuelling concerns about the 'rise' of Asia and a possible threat to Western supremacy. This perception led to increased mistrust of Japanese immigrants and the establishment of immigration quotas and restrictions specifically targeting Asians. These policies reflected and reinforced racist and xenophobic attitudes already present in American society. Racism at this time was not only directed against Asians, but also affected African-Americans, who continued to face segregation and systemic discrimination in many parts of the country. Despite the abolition of slavery after the Civil War, Jim Crow laws in the South and other forms of institutionalised discrimination kept African Americans in an inferior position socially, economically and politically.

After the First World War, the United States experienced a second wave of xenophobia and border closures, influenced by complex economic, social and political factors. During the war, immigration to the United States dropped considerably, while the American economy was heavily mobilised for the production of weapons and military equipment. With the end of the war in 1918, immigration resumed, fuelled by large numbers of European refugees seeking to escape the devastation and upheaval caused by the war. Initially, this wave of immigration did not pose a major problem, as the war industries were still active. However, with the return to a peaceful economy in 1920, the situation quickly changed. Military orders ceased, leading to mass redundancies and an economic recession. American trade unions, already preoccupied with unrest and strikes, began to blame the influx of new immigrants for unemployment and falling wages. These concerns were exacerbated by the fear of communism, particularly in relation to immigrants from Eastern Europe, where communism was gaining influence.

Against this backdrop of fear of communism, economic tensions and unemployment, attitudes towards immigrants hardened. The 1920s saw the adoption of restrictive immigration laws, such as the Quota Acts of 1921 and 1924, which severely limited immigration from many countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe and Asia. At the same time, the United States withdrew from the international scene, despite its key role in the creation of the League of Nations after the First World War. This withdrawal and the tightening of immigration quotas reflected a growing desire for isolationism and a distrust of foreign influences. The period after the First World War was therefore a crucial one in the history of the United States, marked by economic tensions, rising anti-communism and hardening attitudes towards immigrants. These factors helped shape American immigration policy and national identity for decades to come.