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===1973-1974 年和 1979-1980 年石油冲击的影响和反响===
===1973-1974 年和 1979-1980 年石油冲击的影响和反响===
The year 1973 represented a major turning point for Western economies, particularly in terms of their dependence on oil. The oil crisis of 1973, triggered by the Yom Kippur War, had a profound impact on the world economy, particularly on Western countries. The Yom Kippur War began with a surprise attack by Arab armies on Israel. The Israeli counter-attack provoked a significant reaction from the Arab oil-producing countries. In response to Western support for Israel, these countries, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), decided to drastically reduce their oil production. This reduction in supply, combined with persistently high demand, has led to a spectacular rise in oil prices. The price of oil tripled in 1973, making the Western economy much more expensive to run. This rise in energy costs led to widespread inflation and affected many sectors of the economy, including transport, manufacturing and even home heating. This crisis has highlighted the vulnerability of Western economies to fluctuating oil prices and their dependence on imported oil. It also stimulated the search for alternative sources of energy and reflection on energy policies and energy security, concerns that remained relevant in the decades that followed.
1973 年是西方经济的一个重要转折点，尤其是在对石油的依赖方面。赎罪日战争引发的 1973 年石油危机对世界经济，尤其是西方国家产生了深远影响。赎罪日战争始于阿拉伯军队对以色列的突然袭击。以色列的反击引起了阿拉伯产油国的强烈反应。作为对西方支持以色列的回应，这些石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员国决定大幅削减石油产量。供应的减少加上需求的持续高涨，导致了石油价格的惊人上涨。石油价格在 1973 年上涨了两倍，使西方经济的运行成本大大增加。能源成本的上涨导致了广泛的通货膨胀，并影响到许多经济部门，包括运输、制造甚至家庭取暖。这场危机凸显了西方经济受油价波动影响的脆弱性及其对进口石油的依赖性。危机还促使人们寻找替代能源，并对能源政策和能源安全问题进行反思，这些问题在随后的几十年中一直备受关注。


The second oil crisis in 1979 served as a stark reminder to European countries and other industrialised nations of their heavy dependence on imported oil. This crisis was triggered by a number of factors, not least the Iranian revolution, which led to a significant drop in oil production in Iran, one of the main oil exporters at the time. The drop in Iranian production, combined with fears of increased political instability in the region, led to a sharp rise in oil prices. Prices almost doubled, with considerable economic effects around the world. As with the first oil shock in 1973, this price rise had a direct impact on economies that relied heavily on imported oil, particularly European economies. The second oil shock highlighted the vulnerability of oil-importing countries and underlined the need to diversify energy sources. This led to a growing awareness of the need to develop alternative and renewable energy sources, as well as to improve energy efficiency. In addition, the crisis has stimulated increased interest in national and international energy policies aimed at reducing dependence on oil and enhancing energy security.
1979 年的第二次石油危机让欧洲国家和其他工业化国家清醒地认识到它们对进口石油的严重依赖。这次危机是由多种因素引发的，尤其是伊朗革命导致当时的主要石油出口国之一伊朗的石油产量大幅下降。伊朗产量的下降，加上对该地区政治不稳定加剧的担忧，导致石油价格急剧上涨。价格几乎翻了一番，对全球经济造成了相当大的影响。与 1973 年的第一次石油冲击一样，这次价格上涨对严重依赖进口石油的经济体，特别是欧洲经济体产生了直接影响。第二次石油冲击凸显了石油进口国的脆弱性，强调了能源多样化的必要性。这使人们日益认识到开发替代能源和可再生能源以及提高能源效率的必要性。此外，危机还激发了人们对旨在减少对石油的依赖和加强能源安全的国家和国际能源政策的更大兴趣。


===Consequences of the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1973===
===1973 年《布雷顿森林协定》终止的后果===
The end of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1973 marked a decisive turning point in the international monetary system. Set up in 1944, these agreements had established a system of fixed exchange rates, in which the currencies of the member countries were linked to the US dollar, itself convertible into gold. The dissolution of this system led to profound changes in global economic dynamics. With the break-up of the Bretton Woods agreement, exchange rates are no longer fixed but floating, meaning that they can vary freely in response to market forces. This transition to floating exchange rates has introduced a much higher level of uncertainty and volatility into international economic relations. Exchange rate stability, hitherto guaranteed by the Bretton Woods system, was fundamental to international trade and investment. The end of this stability has had major consequences. Currencies considered to be weak were particularly vulnerable to speculation and were often devalued. In addition, as the US dollar was no longer pegged to gold, its value became subject to greater fluctuations, adding to the uncertainty and complexity of international trade. This period of transition also required adjustments in national economic policies and prompted further reflection on the mechanisms for regulating foreign exchange markets and international monetary cooperation. The end of the Bretton Woods agreements marked a new era in world finance, characterised by greater flexibility but also by greater currency instability.
1973 年《布雷顿森林协定》的终止标志着国际货币体系的一个决定性转折点。这些协定于 1944 年制定，建立了一个固定汇率体系，其中成员国的货币与美元挂钩，美元本身可兑换成黄金。这一体系的解体导致全球经济动态发生了深刻变化。随着布雷顿森林协定的解体，汇率不再是固定的，而是浮动的，这意味着汇率可以随着市场力量的变化而自由变动。向浮动汇率的过渡给国际经济关系带来了更大的不确定性和波动性。迄今由布雷顿森林体系保证的汇率稳定是国际贸易和投资的基础。这种稳定性的终结产生了重大影响。被认为疲软的货币特别容易受到投机行为的影响，往往会贬值。此外，由于美元不再与黄金挂钩，其价值波动也变得更大，增加了国际贸易的不确定性和复杂性。这一过渡时期也要求各国调整经济政策，并促使人们进一步思考外汇市场和国际货币合作的监管机制。布雷顿森林协定的结束标志着世界金融进入了一个新时代，其特点是灵活性更大，但货币的不稳定性也更强。


The formation of the European Union (EU) and its evolution in monetary policy reflect a response to the challenges posed by exchange rate fluctuations, particularly after the end of the Bretton Woods agreements. Initially, the EU was primarily a free trade market, where the free movement of goods, services and capital was a fundamental principle. However, exchange rate volatility after 1973 posed significant challenges to maintaining economic and trade stability within the Union. In response to this instability, several European countries took the initiative of linking their currencies to the Deutschemark, which was considered to be one of the strongest and most stable currencies at the time. This gave rise to the "European currency snake", a mechanism designed to limit exchange rate fluctuations between certain European currencies. The currency snake was an attempt to stabilise exchange rates by keeping them within limited fluctuation margins against the Deutschemark. The European currency snake can be seen as a precursor to the deeper monetary integration that led to the creation of the euro. By attempting to stabilise exchange rates between the currencies of the member countries, this mechanism laid the foundations for closer economic and monetary cooperation in Europe. It has also underlined the importance of monetary policy coordination for the success of a free trade market, particularly in a context where economies are closely interconnected. The European monetary snake was an important step in the process of European integration, ultimately leading to the creation of the euro and the establishment of Economic and Monetary Union, which has strengthened economic integration and monetary stability within the EU.
欧洲联盟（欧盟）的成立及其货币政策的演变反映了对汇率波动带来的挑战的回应，尤其是在布雷顿森林协定结束之后。最初，欧盟主要是一个自由贸易市场，货物、服务和资本的自由流动是其基本原则。然而，1973 年后的汇率波动对维持欧盟内部的经济和贸易稳定构成了重大挑战。为了应对这种不稳定性，一些欧洲国家主动将本国货币与当时被认为是最坚挺、最稳定的货币之一的德国马克挂钩。这就产生了 "欧洲货币蛇"，一种旨在限制某些欧洲货币之间汇率波动的机制。欧洲货币蛇 "试图通过将汇率保持在相对于德国马克的有限波动幅度内来稳定汇率。欧洲 "货币蛇 "可以被视为深化货币一体化的先驱，而货币一体化的深化导致了欧元的诞生。通过试图稳定成员国货币之间的汇率，这一机制为欧洲更紧密的经济和货币合作奠定了基础。它还凸显了货币政策协调对于自由贸易市场成功的重要性，尤其是在各经济体紧密相连的情况下。欧洲货币蛇形结构 "是欧洲一体化进程中的重要一步，最终促成了欧元的诞生和经济与货币联盟的建立，加强了欧盟内部的经济一体化和货币稳定性。


The link between the "European monetary snake" and the 1973 oil crisis, as well as the labelling of oil in dollars, is indeed significant in the context of monetary developments in Europe. The oil crisis highlighted the vulnerability of European economies to fluctuations in the US dollar, since oil, a vital resource, was mainly traded in dollars. This situation exacerbated the effects of the oil crisis in Europe, making European economies even more sensitive to variations in the dollar exchange rate. Against this backdrop, the "European currency snake" was an attempt to stabilise European currencies by pegging them to the Deutschemark, thereby reducing their vulnerability to fluctuations in the dollar. By harmonising the values of the various European currencies around the Deutschemark, the member countries sought to mitigate the impact of external shocks and promote greater economic stability within Europe. The adoption of the euro can be seen as a continuation and amplification of this logic. The euro began as a financial currency, used in accounting and financial transactions, before becoming a real currency in circulation. This process was both a simplification - replacing several national currencies with a single common currency - and a major political decision, reflecting a deep commitment to European unification and integration. The creation of the euro marked an important stage in the process of European integration. It represented not only monetary unification but also a shared commitment to deeper economic integration. This underlined the willingness of EU member countries to work closely together to address global economic challenges, and to consolidate their integration to strengthen their economic stability and prosperity.
从欧洲货币发展的角度来看，"欧洲货币之蛇 "与 1973 年石油危机以及以美元标示石油之间的联系确实意义重大。石油危机凸显了欧洲经济易受美元波动影响的脆弱性，因为石油这一重要资源主要以美元交易。这种情况加剧了石油危机对欧洲的影响，使欧洲经济对美元汇率的变化更加敏感。在此背景下，"欧洲货币蛇 "试图通过将欧洲货币与德国马克挂钩来稳定欧洲货币，从而降低其受美元波动影响的脆弱性。通过围绕德国马克协调各种欧洲货币的价值，成员国试图减轻外部冲击的影响，并促进欧洲内部经济的进一步稳定。欧元的采用可以看作是这一逻辑的延续和放大。欧元最初是一种金融货币，用于会计和金融交易，后来才成为真正的流通货币。这一过程既是一个简化过程--用单一的共同货币取代多个国家货币--也是一个重大的政治决定，反映了对欧洲统一和一体化的坚定承诺。欧元的诞生标志着欧洲一体化进程进入了一个重要阶段。它不仅代表着货币的统一，也代表着对深化经济一体化的共同承诺。这凸显了欧盟成员国密切合作应对全球经济挑战、巩固一体化以加强经济稳定和繁荣的意愿。


===Analysis of the slowdown in productivity gains===
===对生产率增长放缓的分析===
During the period in question, Western economies, particularly in Europe and the United States, faced a significant slowdown in productivity gains, which posed considerable challenges to their economic growth. After a period of rapid productivity growth in the decades following the Second World War, largely due to technological innovations and improvements in industrial efficiency, the 1970s marked a change. The pace of productivity gains began to decline, a phenomenon attributable to a number of factors, including a plateau in technological innovation, reduced investment in certain key sectors, and saturation in the improvement of existing production processes. This slowdown in innovation has had a direct impact on productivity growth. Innovation is a key driver of productivity growth, and when it falters, this tends to slow the economy as a whole. This can be the result of reduced investment in research and development, a lack of revolutionary new technologies, or the difficulty of continuing to improve existing production methods. Alongside this slowdown in productivity growth, Western economies have also experienced periods of high inflation and rising unemployment, a situation often referred to as 'stagflation'. This combination of economic stagnation and high inflation has presented a complex challenge for policymakers. Traditional measures to combat inflation could exacerbate the problem of unemployment, and vice versa, making management of the economy particularly difficult. These economic challenges required nuanced policy responses and led to reforms in various areas. Governments have had to revise their monetary policies, regulate the labour market more effectively and encourage innovation and investment to stimulate growth and combat economic stagnation. This period has therefore been marked by a search for balance between various economic objectives, while trying to navigate a changing global economic environment.
在这一时期，西方经济体，尤其是欧洲和美国，面临着生产率增长显著放缓的问题，这对其经济增长构成了巨大挑战。在第二次世界大战后的几十年里，主要由于技术创新和工业效率的提高，生产率出现了快速增长。生产率提高的速度开始下降，这一现象可归因于多种因素，包括技术创新的停滞、某些关键部门投资的减少以及现有生产流程改进的饱和。创新放缓对生产率增长产生了直接影响。创新是生产力增长的主要驱动力，一旦创新出现问题，往往会导致整个经济放缓。这可能是研发投资减少、缺乏革命性新技术或难以继续改进现有生产方法的结果。在生产力增长放缓的同时，西方经济体也经历了高通胀和失业率上升的时期，这种情况通常被称为 "滞胀"。经济停滞和高通胀的结合给政策制定者带来了复杂的挑战。打击通货膨胀的传统措施可能会加剧失业问题，反之亦然，这使得经济管理变得尤为困难。这些经济挑战要求采取细致入微的政策应对措施，并导致各个领域的改革。各国政府必须修订货币政策，更有效地调控劳动力市场，鼓励创新和投资，以刺激增长，消除经济停滞。因此，这一时期的特点是在各种经济目标之间寻求平衡，同时努力驾驭不断变化的全球经济环境。


==Inflation: Origins and Consequences==
==通货膨胀： 起源与后果==


Inflation, which translates into higher retail prices, is closely linked to the law of supply and demand. This fundamental economic principle states that when demand for goods and services exceeds available supply, prices tend to rise. Conversely, if supply is abundant and demand is low, prices tend to fall. In a context where consumption is high and supply is unable to keep up, as you mentioned, upward pressure on prices arises, leading to inflation. This can happen for a variety of reasons, such as limitations in production capacity, logistical problems, or shortages of raw materials. On the other hand, if the economy is able to produce goods and services at low cost and in sufficient quantity to meet demand, inflation can be kept relatively low. During a normal period, an inflation rate of 9% is indeed considered high. Such a level of inflation can reduce the purchasing power of consumers and have a negative impact on the economy. In the European context of the time you mention, characterised by economic challenges such as oil shocks and exchange rate variations after the end of the Bretton Woods agreements, a high inflation rate was not unusual. These external factors, combined with domestic economic policies, contributed to higher than normal inflation. This period of high inflation posed considerable challenges for European governments and central banks, which had to find ways of balancing economic growth with inflation control, often by adjusting monetary and fiscal policies. Managing inflation has become a major concern, underlining the importance of prudent and responsive economic policy in maintaining economic stability.
通货膨胀会导致零售价格上涨，这与供求规律密切相关。这一基本经济原理表明，当商品和服务的需求超过现有供应时，价格就会上涨。反之，如果供应充足而需求不足，价格就会下降。在消费高而供应跟不上的情况下，就像你提到的，就会产生价格上涨的压力，从而导致通货膨胀。出现这种情况的原因有很多，如生产能力有限、物流问题或原材料短缺。另一方面，如果经济能够以较低的成本生产足够数量的商品和服务来满足需求，通货膨胀率就会保持在相对较低的水平。在正常时期，9%的通胀率确实算是高的。这样的通胀水平会降低消费者的购买力，对经济产生负面影响。在您提到的那个时代的欧洲，布雷顿森林协定结束后，石油冲击和汇率变动等经济挑战层出不穷，高通胀率并不罕见。这些外部因素加上国内经济政策，导致通货膨胀率高于正常水平。这一时期的高通胀给欧洲各国政府和中央银行带来了巨大的挑战，它们必须找到平衡经济增长和控制通胀的方法，通常是通过调整货币和财政政策。管理通胀已成为人们关注的一个主要问题，凸显了审慎和反应灵敏的经济政策在维护经济稳定方面的重要性。


Inflation can occur in different ways and with varying intensity, depending on economic circumstances and the policies implemented by individual countries. The oil shocks of the 1970s are classic examples of external factors causing rapid and high inflation, often referred to as "inflationary surges". These shocks led to a sudden increase in energy costs, which spread throughout the economy and caused prices to rise rapidly. Apart from these exceptional events, inflation can be more gradual and sustained, often referred to as 'substantial inflation'. This type of inflation develops over a longer period and can be the result of various factors, such as expansionary monetary policies, rising production costs, or strong demand outstripping available supply. The way in which different countries have managed inflation over this period varies considerably. France and Germany, for example, adopted distinct approaches to dealing with inflation. Germany, in particular, has been recognised for its strict monetary policy and commitment to price stability, often attributed to the influence of the Bundesbank, its central bank. This policy has helped to keep inflation rates relatively low in Germany compared to other countries. France, on the other hand, has also implemented effective policies to control inflation, although its economic strategies and challenges have been different. French policies have often included a combination of price controls, fiscal policies and sometimes monetary devaluations to manage inflation. These differences in inflation management reflect the diversity of economic contexts and policy approaches within European countries. They also illustrate how national economic and monetary policy strategies can significantly influence a country's overall economic performance.
通货膨胀会以不同的方式出现，其严重程度也各不相同，这取决于各国的经济状况和所实施的政策。20 世纪 70 年代的石油冲击是外部因素导致快速高通胀的典型例子，通常被称为 "通胀激增"。这些冲击导致能源成本突然增加，并波及整个经济，造成价格迅速上涨。除了这些特殊事件外，通货膨胀可能更加渐进和持续，通常被称为 "实质性通货膨胀"。这种类型的通货膨胀持续时间较长，可能是扩张性货币政策、生产成本上升或供不应求等各种因素造成的。在此期间，不同国家管理通货膨胀的方式大相径庭。例如，法国和德国采取了不同的方法来应对通货膨胀。尤其是德国，其严格的货币政策和对稳定物价的承诺得到了认可，这通常归功于其中央银行德国联邦银行的影响力。与其他国家相比，这一政策使德国的通货膨胀率保持在相对较低的水平。另一方面，法国也实施了有效的政策来控制通货膨胀，尽管其经济战略和面临的挑战有所不同。法国的政策通常包括价格控制、财政政策，有时还包括货币贬值，以管理通货膨胀。通胀管理方面的这些差异反映了欧洲各国经济环境和政策方法的多样性。它们还说明了国家经济和货币政策战略如何对一个国家的整体经济表现产生重大影响。


The 1970s and early 1980s represented a complex period for the global economy, characterised by challenges such as high inflation, slowing growth and rising unemployment. This period was particularly difficult for workers, as even in contexts of good economic performance, many experienced wage stagnation. Despite economic growth in some sectors, real wage increases were limited, which had a negative impact on people's purchasing power. This wage stagnation, coupled with an unstable global economic environment marked by oil shocks and political uncertainty, led to a period of economic insecurity for many citizens. Around the mid-1980s, the situation began to change for the better. The macroeconomic policies implemented by governments and central banks began to bear fruit, and many countries managed to emerge from the period of high inflation that had marked the previous decade. The fight against inflation was waged mainly through tighter monetary policies, including raising interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure. Although these measures were controversial because of their potential effects on economic growth and unemployment, they ultimately succeeded in stabilising the economies. The success of these policies in controlling inflation has been a major development for world economies. By regaining control of inflation, countries have created an environment more conducive to stable, long-term economic growth. This stabilisation helped to restore confidence in the capabilities of monetary and economic policies, laying the foundations for periods of economic prosperity in the years that followed. The lessons learned during this turbulent period have had a significant influence on future economic policies, demonstrating the importance of the responsiveness and adaptability of economic policies in the face of global challenges.
20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代初是全球经济的复杂时期，其特点是高通胀、增长放缓和失业率上升。这一时期对工人来说尤为艰难，因为即使在经济表现良好的情况下，许多工人的工资也停滞不前。尽管一些行业实现了经济增长，但实际工资增长有限，这对人们的购买力产生了负面影响。这种工资停滞不前的状况，再加上以石油冲击和政治不确定性为特点的不稳定的全球经济环境，导致许多公民陷入了经济不安全时期。大约在 20 世纪 80 年代中期，情况开始好转。各国政府和中央银行实施的宏观经济政策开始取得成效，许多国家成功摆脱了前十年的高通胀时期。抗击通胀的主要手段是紧缩货币政策，包括提高利率以减轻通胀压力。尽管这些措施因其对经济增长和失业率的潜在影响而备受争议，但它们最终成功地稳定了经济。这些政策在控制通胀方面的成功是世界经济的一大发展。通过重新控制通货膨胀，各国创造了一个更有利于长期稳定经济增长的环境。这种稳定有助于恢复人们对货币和经济政策能力的信心，为随后几年的经济繁荣时期奠定了基础。在这一动荡时期吸取的经验教训对未来的经济政策产生了重大影响，表明了经济政策在面对全球挑战时的反应能力和适应能力的重要性。


The contrast you describe between the economic crisis and the social crisis during the 1970s and 1980s is a complex and significant phenomenon. Although there was a small economic crisis around the 1980s, the social problems were more pronounced and persistent. On the one hand, there was wage stagnation, mass redundancies and high inflation, which created an employment crisis and reduced purchasing power for many workers. This situation led to considerable social tensions, as many people found themselves in a precarious financial situation. On the other hand, certain sectors have experienced different dynamics. For example, the import of American wheat contributed to a crisis in European agriculture, but it also led to a fall in food prices, which offered a form of compensation to consumers. This illustrates the complexity of the global economy, where changes in one sector can have unexpected effects on others. Despite these nuances, the years 1973, 1980 and 1985 were marked by relatively good economic growth. However, this growth was not uniformly beneficial in social terms. The antagonism between a growing economy and the social difficulties encountered by many citizens is a characteristic of what is known as "stagflation". This term describes an economic situation in which stagnation (marked by slowing economic growth and rising unemployment) coexists with inflation (a general rise in prices). Stagflation represents a particular challenge for economic policy, as traditional measures to stimulate growth or control inflation may not be effective or may even exacerbate the other aspect of the problem.
您所描述的 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代经济危机与社会危机之间的对比是一个复杂而重要的现象。虽然 20 世纪 80 年代前后出现了小规模的经济危机，但社会问题却更加明显和持久。一方面，工资停滞、大量裁员和高通胀造成了就业危机，降低了许多工人的购买力。这种情况导致社会关系相当紧张，因为许多人发现自己的经济状况岌岌可危。另一方面，某些部门也经历了不同的动态变化。例如，进口美国小麦导致了欧洲农业危机，但同时也导致食品价格下跌，为消费者提供了一种补偿。这说明了全球经济的复杂性，一个部门的变化可能会对其他部门产生意想不到的影响。尽管存在这些细微差别，1973、1980 和 1985 年的经济增长仍然相对较好。然而，从社会角度来看，这种增长并不都是有益的。经济增长与许多公民遇到的社会困难之间的对立是所谓 "滞胀 "的特征。滞胀 "是指经济停滞（以经济增长放缓和失业率上升为特征）与通货膨胀（物价普遍上涨）并存的经济状况。滞胀是经济政策面临的一个特殊挑战，因为刺激增长或控制通货膨胀的传统措施可能不会奏效，甚至会加剧问题的另一方面。


==The Evolution and Challenges of Unemployment==
==The Evolution and Challenges of Unemployment==

Version du 6 décembre 2023 à 22:37

根据米歇尔-奥利斯（Michel Oris）的课程改编[1][2]

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地结构与乡村社会： 前工业化时期欧洲农民分析 ● 旧政体的人口制度：平衡状态 ● 十八世纪社会经济结构的演变： 从旧制度到现代性 ● 英国工业革命的起源和原因] ● 工业革命的结构机制 ● 工业革命在欧洲大陆的传播 ● 欧洲以外的工业革命：美国和日本 ● 工业革命的社会成本 ● 第一次全球化周期阶段的历史分析 ● 各国市场的动态和产品贸易的全球化 ● 全球移民体系的形成 ● 货币市场全球化的动态和影响：英国和法国的核心作用 ● 工业革命时期社会结构和社会关系的变革 ● 第三世界的起源和殖民化的影响 ● 第三世界的失败与障碍 ● 不断变化的工作方法： 十九世纪末至二十世纪中叶不断演变的生产关系 ● 西方经济的黄金时代： 辉煌三十年（1945-1973 年） ● 变化中的世界经济：1973-2007 年 ● 福利国家的挑战 ● 围绕殖民化：对发展的担忧和希望 ● 断裂的时代：国际经济的挑战与机遇 ● 全球化与 "第三世界 "的发展模式

在对 1973 年至 2007 年经济发展的探索中，我们深入研究了塑造当代全球经济格局的关键时期。在这个以深刻变革和重大挑战为标志的时代，世界经历了重大的经济和社会转型。从 1973 年第一次石油冲击动摇了全球经济的基础开始，我们目睹了一系列重新定义国际经济关系、劳动力市场结构和环境资源管理的事件和政策。

这一时期还见证了新自由主义的兴起，撒切尔夫人和罗纳德-里根等人挑战了福利国家的原则，开创了市场自由化和经济全球化的时代。这些政策的影响，加上快速的技术变革和全球化，导致了就业结构的深刻变革，加剧了不平等现象，重塑了社会动态。

在探讨这一关键时期时，我们试图了解这三十四年间的决策、危机和创新如何不仅塑造了经济史的进程，而且还继续影响着当今的经济和社会现实。通过这本评论，我们可以深入了解塑造现代世界的各种力量，以及我们在全球经济不确定的未来中可以汲取的经验教训。

石油冲击和生态觉醒的全球影响

正如您所描述的那样，生态学和环境意识的演变可以追溯到 19 世纪，其中包括对环境科学领域的重大贡献。德国博物学家恩斯特-海克尔（Ernst Haeckel）于 1866 年提出了 "生态学 "一词，发挥了先驱作用。这个词源自希腊语 "oikos"，意为 "家园 "或 "环境"，"logos "意为 "研究"，海克尔用它来描述生物与环境以及生物之间关系的科学。这一定义为现代人理解生态互动奠定了基础。早在海克尔之前，法国物理学家约瑟夫-傅里叶在 1825 年就提出了温室效应的理论。他提出，地球的大气层可以像温室的外壳一样，保留热量，从而影响地球的气候。这一理论后来被瑞典化学家斯凡特-阿伦尼乌斯（Svante Arrhenius）验证，他建立了大气中二氧化碳浓度与地球温度之间的关系，为我们现在了解气候变化奠定了基础。与此同时，英国博物学家乔治-帕金斯-马什于 1864 年强调了人类活动对自然的影响。他在书中强调了人类活动改变环境的方式，是最早承认人类对生态影响的人之一。这些发现和理论为现代生态学和环境科学奠定了基础。然而，尽管这些概念是在 19 世纪提出的，但它们并没有立即导致政策或公众观念的重大改变。直到二十世纪，人们才充分认识到这些理念的重要性，从而将其更深入地融入环境政策和公众意识中。

  • 恩斯特-海克尔（Ernst Haeckel），1860 年。

  • 斯凡特-奥古斯特-阿伦尼乌斯

1972 年罗马俱乐部的 "停止增长 "报告是全球对环境和经济问题认识的一个重要转折点。该报告汇集了政治家、学者和科学家，将不同领域的专业知识结合起来，在全球范围内对科学生态学进行了理论探讨。报告的核心是模拟人类活动与自然环境之间的相互作用。研究小组利用先进的计算机模型模拟人类活动对自然的影响及其对人类社会的潜在反馈。这些模型揭示了地球环境极限和资源有限的现实，而在此之前，媒体很少报道这一概念。报告中最引人注目的内容之一涉及煤炭和石油等基本资源。罗马俱乐部提请人们注意，这些资源不仅是有限的，而且无节制的开采可能导致资源枯竭。鉴于石油在西方国家经济中的核心作用，油田枯竭的模型尤其敲响了警钟。报告还强调，即使是可再生资源也不是取之不尽、用之不竭的。过度开采会导致不归路，即超过自然再生能力，从而导致资源枯竭。"停止增长 "在提高人们对生态极限和可持续资源管理必要性的认识方面发挥了至关重要的作用。它为更深入地讨论可持续发展和经济政策对环境的影响铺平了道路，极大地影响了此后几十年的生态和经济思想。

1973 年阿以赎罪日战争引发的第一次石油冲击标志着世界意识到资源，尤其是石油有限性的关键时刻。埃及和叙利亚军队对以色列的袭击导致石油输出国组织（欧佩克）成员国采取重大报复行动，减少了石油生产和销售。这一行动导致油价暴涨，多个国家出现石油短缺，尤其是在西方工业化国家。这次石油冲击对全球经济产生了深远影响，但也在提高世界对不可再生能源依赖性的认识方面发挥了重要作用。一年前，罗马俱乐部在其 "停止增长 "报告中发出警告，提醒人们过度开发有限自然资源的危险，这次事件增强了这些警告的合理性。登月旅行，特别是美国国家航空航天局的阿波罗任务，也在改变世界对地球的看法方面发挥了作用。从太空看地球提供了一个独特而统一的视角，强调了地球的有限性和脆弱性。正如你所描述的那样，地球的这种 "外部化 "促使人们日益认识到地球是一个共同的星球，并对国际关系产生了重大影响。它强化了这样一种观念，即环境挑战需要合作和全球性的方法。1973 年的石油危机，加上太空探索和罗马俱乐部的警告，促使人们从根本上改变了对地球资源的认识和管理方式，从而制定了更加注重可持续性和环境问题国际合作的政策。

联合国环境与发展会议（通常称为 1992 年里约会议）标志着世界在处理发展和环境保护问题的方式上迈出了决定性的一步。会议将可持续发展的概念引入了国际政策的核心，这一概念旨在平衡经济和社会发展的需要与为子孙后代保护自然资源的需要。里约会议确立的可持续发展原则代表着模式的重大转变。它认识到经济增长不应以牺牲环境为代价，并强调在规划和实施发展政策时必须考虑对环境的长期影响。这一理念鼓励各国重新思考其经济进步的方法，使其朝着更加可持续和环境友好的方向发展。会议还强调了国家利益与全球化之间的矛盾。气候变化和生物多样性丧失等环境挑战不分国界，需要国际合作才能有效应对。这对代表世界的体系提出了挑战，因为不同国家的利益和能力差异很大。里约会议为在全球范围内采取新的思维和行动方式奠定了基础，认识到人类的福祉与地球的健康密不可分。这一认识促使许多国家采取了更加可持续的政策和做法，并对此后几十年的国际讨论和行动产生了影响。

衰退： 1973 年至 1990 年的分析

标志着西方世界二十世纪末的大萧条具有不同于以往经济危机的独特性质和特征。这一时期由一系列经济现象所决定，这些现象共同造成了艰难而复杂的经济环境。这一时期最重要的现象之一是人均国民生产总值（GNP）的增长明显放缓。从 1971-1973 年到 1991-1993 年，人均国民生产总值的年增长率下降到 1.9%左右，与 1950-1971 年间 3.1%的平均增长率相比明显下降。增长放缓表明经济势头减弱，人均财富增长减少。这一时期的另一个特点是通货膨胀和经济停滞并存，这种现象通常被称为 "滞胀"。通货膨胀表现为物价的普遍上涨，与此同时，经济增长却很低或根本没有增长。这给政策制定者带来了独特的挑战，因为打击通货膨胀的传统战略可能会加剧经济停滞，反之亦然。此外，失业率上升是这一时期的另一个主要特征。失业率上升，加上经济增长放缓和通货膨胀，给许多人带来了不确定性和经济困难。这一时期并非传统意义上的经济危机。与以经济迅速深度萎缩为特征的经济衰退或经济萧条不同，这一时期更适合描述为一个长期的经济增长乏力阶段，同时伴随着各种其他经济问题。在这种情况下，需要采取创新的政治和经济对策来刺激经济增长，同时控制通货膨胀和失业。

经济增长放缓的动态变化

这一时期的经济增长放缓虽然不如 20 世纪 30 年代的大萧条那么严重，但也与过去的低经济增长时期有一些相似之处。与二战期间进行比较是恰当的，因为这一时期的特点也是经济不稳定和增长率起伏不定。需要注意的是，"衰退 "和 "萧条 "等经济术语通常是按照特定标准定义的。与衰退相比，萧条的特点通常是经济萎缩程度更深、持续时间更长。虽然 20 世纪末的经济放缓没有达到 20 世纪 30 年代大萧条的规模或严重程度，但它代表了一个经济困难的时期，增长停滞、通货膨胀率高、失业率上升。这一解释凸显了当时经济形势的复杂性，并说明了即使没有发生像 20 世纪 30 年代那样的重大经济危机，长期的经济衰退也会对社会和经济造成相当大的影响。因此，这一时期需要有针对性的政治和经济对策来应对这些独特的挑战。

经济放缓原因三部曲

1973-1974 年和 1979-1980 年石油冲击的影响和反响

1973 年是西方经济的一个重要转折点，尤其是在对石油的依赖方面。赎罪日战争引发的 1973 年石油危机对世界经济，尤其是西方国家产生了深远影响。赎罪日战争始于阿拉伯军队对以色列的突然袭击。以色列的反击引起了阿拉伯产油国的强烈反应。作为对西方支持以色列的回应，这些石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员国决定大幅削减石油产量。供应的减少加上需求的持续高涨，导致了石油价格的惊人上涨。石油价格在 1973 年上涨了两倍，使西方经济的运行成本大大增加。能源成本的上涨导致了广泛的通货膨胀，并影响到许多经济部门，包括运输、制造甚至家庭取暖。这场危机凸显了西方经济受油价波动影响的脆弱性及其对进口石油的依赖性。危机还促使人们寻找替代能源，并对能源政策和能源安全问题进行反思，这些问题在随后的几十年中一直备受关注。

1979 年的第二次石油危机让欧洲国家和其他工业化国家清醒地认识到它们对进口石油的严重依赖。这次危机是由多种因素引发的，尤其是伊朗革命导致当时的主要石油出口国之一伊朗的石油产量大幅下降。伊朗产量的下降，加上对该地区政治不稳定加剧的担忧，导致石油价格急剧上涨。价格几乎翻了一番，对全球经济造成了相当大的影响。与 1973 年的第一次石油冲击一样，这次价格上涨对严重依赖进口石油的经济体，特别是欧洲经济体产生了直接影响。第二次石油冲击凸显了石油进口国的脆弱性，强调了能源多样化的必要性。这使人们日益认识到开发替代能源和可再生能源以及提高能源效率的必要性。此外，危机还激发了人们对旨在减少对石油的依赖和加强能源安全的国家和国际能源政策的更大兴趣。

1973 年《布雷顿森林协定》终止的后果

1973 年《布雷顿森林协定》的终止标志着国际货币体系的一个决定性转折点。这些协定于 1944 年制定，建立了一个固定汇率体系，其中成员国的货币与美元挂钩，美元本身可兑换成黄金。这一体系的解体导致全球经济动态发生了深刻变化。随着布雷顿森林协定的解体，汇率不再是固定的，而是浮动的，这意味着汇率可以随着市场力量的变化而自由变动。向浮动汇率的过渡给国际经济关系带来了更大的不确定性和波动性。迄今由布雷顿森林体系保证的汇率稳定是国际贸易和投资的基础。这种稳定性的终结产生了重大影响。被认为疲软的货币特别容易受到投机行为的影响，往往会贬值。此外，由于美元不再与黄金挂钩，其价值波动也变得更大，增加了国际贸易的不确定性和复杂性。这一过渡时期也要求各国调整经济政策，并促使人们进一步思考外汇市场和国际货币合作的监管机制。布雷顿森林协定的结束标志着世界金融进入了一个新时代，其特点是灵活性更大，但货币的不稳定性也更强。

欧洲联盟（欧盟）的成立及其货币政策的演变反映了对汇率波动带来的挑战的回应，尤其是在布雷顿森林协定结束之后。最初，欧盟主要是一个自由贸易市场，货物、服务和资本的自由流动是其基本原则。然而，1973 年后的汇率波动对维持欧盟内部的经济和贸易稳定构成了重大挑战。为了应对这种不稳定性，一些欧洲国家主动将本国货币与当时被认为是最坚挺、最稳定的货币之一的德国马克挂钩。这就产生了 "欧洲货币蛇"，一种旨在限制某些欧洲货币之间汇率波动的机制。欧洲货币蛇 "试图通过将汇率保持在相对于德国马克的有限波动幅度内来稳定汇率。欧洲 "货币蛇 "可以被视为深化货币一体化的先驱，而货币一体化的深化导致了欧元的诞生。通过试图稳定成员国货币之间的汇率，这一机制为欧洲更紧密的经济和货币合作奠定了基础。它还凸显了货币政策协调对于自由贸易市场成功的重要性，尤其是在各经济体紧密相连的情况下。欧洲货币蛇形结构 "是欧洲一体化进程中的重要一步，最终促成了欧元的诞生和经济与货币联盟的建立，加强了欧盟内部的经济一体化和货币稳定性。

从欧洲货币发展的角度来看，"欧洲货币之蛇 "与 1973 年石油危机以及以美元标示石油之间的联系确实意义重大。石油危机凸显了欧洲经济易受美元波动影响的脆弱性，因为石油这一重要资源主要以美元交易。这种情况加剧了石油危机对欧洲的影响，使欧洲经济对美元汇率的变化更加敏感。在此背景下，"欧洲货币蛇 "试图通过将欧洲货币与德国马克挂钩来稳定欧洲货币，从而降低其受美元波动影响的脆弱性。通过围绕德国马克协调各种欧洲货币的价值，成员国试图减轻外部冲击的影响，并促进欧洲内部经济的进一步稳定。欧元的采用可以看作是这一逻辑的延续和放大。欧元最初是一种金融货币，用于会计和金融交易，后来才成为真正的流通货币。这一过程既是一个简化过程--用单一的共同货币取代多个国家货币--也是一个重大的政治决定，反映了对欧洲统一和一体化的坚定承诺。欧元的诞生标志着欧洲一体化进程进入了一个重要阶段。它不仅代表着货币的统一，也代表着对深化经济一体化的共同承诺。这凸显了欧盟成员国密切合作应对全球经济挑战、巩固一体化以加强经济稳定和繁荣的意愿。

对生产率增长放缓的分析

在这一时期，西方经济体，尤其是欧洲和美国，面临着生产率增长显著放缓的问题，这对其经济增长构成了巨大挑战。在第二次世界大战后的几十年里，主要由于技术创新和工业效率的提高，生产率出现了快速增长。生产率提高的速度开始下降，这一现象可归因于多种因素，包括技术创新的停滞、某些关键部门投资的减少以及现有生产流程改进的饱和。创新放缓对生产率增长产生了直接影响。创新是生产力增长的主要驱动力，一旦创新出现问题，往往会导致整个经济放缓。这可能是研发投资减少、缺乏革命性新技术或难以继续改进现有生产方法的结果。在生产力增长放缓的同时，西方经济体也经历了高通胀和失业率上升的时期，这种情况通常被称为 "滞胀"。经济停滞和高通胀的结合给政策制定者带来了复杂的挑战。打击通货膨胀的传统措施可能会加剧失业问题，反之亦然，这使得经济管理变得尤为困难。这些经济挑战要求采取细致入微的政策应对措施，并导致各个领域的改革。各国政府必须修订货币政策，更有效地调控劳动力市场，鼓励创新和投资，以刺激增长，消除经济停滞。因此，这一时期的特点是在各种经济目标之间寻求平衡，同时努力驾驭不断变化的全球经济环境。

通货膨胀： 起源与后果

通货膨胀会导致零售价格上涨，这与供求规律密切相关。这一基本经济原理表明，当商品和服务的需求超过现有供应时，价格就会上涨。反之，如果供应充足而需求不足，价格就会下降。在消费高而供应跟不上的情况下，就像你提到的，就会产生价格上涨的压力，从而导致通货膨胀。出现这种情况的原因有很多，如生产能力有限、物流问题或原材料短缺。另一方面，如果经济能够以较低的成本生产足够数量的商品和服务来满足需求，通货膨胀率就会保持在相对较低的水平。在正常时期，9%的通胀率确实算是高的。这样的通胀水平会降低消费者的购买力，对经济产生负面影响。在您提到的那个时代的欧洲，布雷顿森林协定结束后，石油冲击和汇率变动等经济挑战层出不穷，高通胀率并不罕见。这些外部因素加上国内经济政策，导致通货膨胀率高于正常水平。这一时期的高通胀给欧洲各国政府和中央银行带来了巨大的挑战，它们必须找到平衡经济增长和控制通胀的方法，通常是通过调整货币和财政政策。管理通胀已成为人们关注的一个主要问题，凸显了审慎和反应灵敏的经济政策在维护经济稳定方面的重要性。

通货膨胀会以不同的方式出现，其严重程度也各不相同，这取决于各国的经济状况和所实施的政策。20 世纪 70 年代的石油冲击是外部因素导致快速高通胀的典型例子，通常被称为 "通胀激增"。这些冲击导致能源成本突然增加，并波及整个经济，造成价格迅速上涨。除了这些特殊事件外，通货膨胀可能更加渐进和持续，通常被称为 "实质性通货膨胀"。这种类型的通货膨胀持续时间较长，可能是扩张性货币政策、生产成本上升或供不应求等各种因素造成的。在此期间，不同国家管理通货膨胀的方式大相径庭。例如，法国和德国采取了不同的方法来应对通货膨胀。尤其是德国，其严格的货币政策和对稳定物价的承诺得到了认可，这通常归功于其中央银行德国联邦银行的影响力。与其他国家相比，这一政策使德国的通货膨胀率保持在相对较低的水平。另一方面，法国也实施了有效的政策来控制通货膨胀，尽管其经济战略和面临的挑战有所不同。法国的政策通常包括价格控制、财政政策，有时还包括货币贬值，以管理通货膨胀。通胀管理方面的这些差异反映了欧洲各国经济环境和政策方法的多样性。它们还说明了国家经济和货币政策战略如何对一个国家的整体经济表现产生重大影响。

20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代初是全球经济的复杂时期，其特点是高通胀、增长放缓和失业率上升。这一时期对工人来说尤为艰难，因为即使在经济表现良好的情况下，许多工人的工资也停滞不前。尽管一些行业实现了经济增长，但实际工资增长有限，这对人们的购买力产生了负面影响。这种工资停滞不前的状况，再加上以石油冲击和政治不确定性为特点的不稳定的全球经济环境，导致许多公民陷入了经济不安全时期。大约在 20 世纪 80 年代中期，情况开始好转。各国政府和中央银行实施的宏观经济政策开始取得成效，许多国家成功摆脱了前十年的高通胀时期。抗击通胀的主要手段是紧缩货币政策，包括提高利率以减轻通胀压力。尽管这些措施因其对经济增长和失业率的潜在影响而备受争议，但它们最终成功地稳定了经济。这些政策在控制通胀方面的成功是世界经济的一大发展。通过重新控制通货膨胀，各国创造了一个更有利于长期稳定经济增长的环境。这种稳定有助于恢复人们对货币和经济政策能力的信心，为随后几年的经济繁荣时期奠定了基础。在这一动荡时期吸取的经验教训对未来的经济政策产生了重大影响，表明了经济政策在面对全球挑战时的反应能力和适应能力的重要性。

您所描述的 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代经济危机与社会危机之间的对比是一个复杂而重要的现象。虽然 20 世纪 80 年代前后出现了小规模的经济危机，但社会问题却更加明显和持久。一方面，工资停滞、大量裁员和高通胀造成了就业危机，降低了许多工人的购买力。这种情况导致社会关系相当紧张，因为许多人发现自己的经济状况岌岌可危。另一方面，某些部门也经历了不同的动态变化。例如，进口美国小麦导致了欧洲农业危机，但同时也导致食品价格下跌，为消费者提供了一种补偿。这说明了全球经济的复杂性，一个部门的变化可能会对其他部门产生意想不到的影响。尽管存在这些细微差别，1973、1980 和 1985 年的经济增长仍然相对较好。然而，从社会角度来看，这种增长并不都是有益的。经济增长与许多公民遇到的社会困难之间的对立是所谓 "滞胀 "的特征。滞胀 "是指经济停滞（以经济增长放缓和失业率上升为特征）与通货膨胀（物价普遍上涨）并存的经济状况。滞胀是经济政策面临的一个特殊挑战，因为刺激增长或控制通货膨胀的传统措施可能不会奏效，甚至会加剧问题的另一方面。

The Evolution and Challenges of Unemployment

The transition of unemployment from cyclical to structural during this period represents a significant change in the dynamics of the labour market. Cyclical unemployment is generally linked to temporary economic recessions and tends to diminish as the economy recovers. Structural unemployment, on the other hand, is more deeply rooted and can persist even when the overall economy shows signs of improvement. This phenomenon, where unemployment becomes persistent and less responsive to economic growth, was particularly marked in several countries during the 1970s and 1980s. This situation can be attributed to various factors, such as technological change, changes in the skills required on the labour market, regional imbalances and labour market rigidities. Germany's experience between 1958 and 1962 illustrates a striking contrast with this period. Germany had an exceptionally low unemployment rate, falling to around 1%, a situation close to full employment. This success was partly due to strong post-war economic growth, industrial reconstruction and modernisation, and effective economic policy. Other countries, such as Switzerland and Japan, also managed to achieve full employment during the Trente Glorieuses, a period of strong economic growth and social stability following the Second World War. These successes were the result of a combination of factors, including appropriate economic policies, a strong demand for labour, and in some cases, a highly skilled workforce and internationally competitive industry. However, with subsequent economic and social changes, including oil shocks, increased global competition and technological change, the unemployment challenge has evolved, leading to an increase in structural unemployment in many countries. This evolution has necessitated new approaches to employment and training policy to adapt to the changing realities of the labour market.

The concept of frictional unemployment plays an important role in labour market analysis, particularly in the United States where occupational mobility is more common. Frictional unemployment refers to the short, temporary transition period during which individuals change jobs. This type of unemployment is generally considered to be a normal and healthy aspect of the economy, reflecting the fluidity and flexibility of the labour market. In the United States, the labour market is characterised by relatively high occupational mobility, with individuals frequently changing jobs or careers throughout their working lives. This mobility is often seen as a positive feature of the US economy, as it enables a better match between workers' skills and employers' needs, thereby promoting innovation and economic efficiency. This tradition of changing jobs contributes to higher frictional unemployment, but it also makes the US labour market more dynamic. The ease of changing jobs encourages workers to seek out positions that better match their skills, interests and career goals. It also makes it easier for companies to adapt to market and technological changes by recruiting employees with the necessary skills. However, it is important to note that, while beneficial in many ways, high levels of frictional unemployment can also pose challenges, particularly in terms of job security for workers and the costs to businesses of recruitment and training. Effective management of frictional unemployment therefore requires policies that support both labour market flexibility and job stability for workers.

The difficulty of returning to the full employment levels of the Trente Glorieuses has effectively marked a turning point in the understanding and management of modern economies. The Trente Glorieuses, the post-war period up to the early 1970s, were characterised by exceptional economic growth, increased output and low unemployment rates in many developed countries. It was a period of reconstruction, technological innovation and sustained economic expansion. However, with the end of this period, marked in particular by the oil shocks of the 1970s and the slowdown in economic growth, the model of full employment began to crumble. The most significant change was the break in the traditional correlation between output and unemployment. Historically, there had been a fairly direct relationship: when output rose, unemployment fell, and vice versa. But since this period of change, this relationship is no longer so obvious. This new reality has manifested itself in the phenomenon where an increase in output does not necessarily lead to a reduction in unemployment. This can be explained by a number of factors, such as automation, which allows an increase in output without a corresponding increase in jobs, or structural changes in the economy, where the new jobs created require different skills to those lost. Breaking this traditional rule has meant that the economy can sometimes generate jobs, but not systematically. This development has posed significant challenges for economic and social policies, requiring more nuanced and tailored approaches to managing the labour market. It has also highlighted the importance of training and retraining, and the need for policies that encourage job creation in growth sectors.

The 1990s: Between Economic Renewal and Growing Uncertainty

Economic Renaissance: Back to Growth

During the 1990s, the United States enjoyed a period of remarkable economic prosperity, positioning itself as a hegemonic power on the world economic stage. The decade was characterised by strong economic growth, controlled inflation and significant job creation, consolidating the United States' dominant position in the global economy. US economic growth in the 1990s was driven by several key factors. One of the most important was the rapid expansion of the digital economy, notably with the emergence and popularisation of the Internet and information and communication technologies. These technological advances have transformed economic sectors and led to the creation of new markets and employment opportunities. For example, US GDP grew impressively during this period, from around $9.6 trillion in 1990 to over $12.6 trillion in 2000. At the same time, the US managed to keep inflation relatively low throughout the decade. This price stability was largely the result of effective monetary policies pursued by the US Federal Reserve. Under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve was able to navigate between stimulating economic growth and preventing inflation, by strategically adjusting interest rates. The inflation rate, which was around 5.4% in 1990, fell significantly to around 3.4% in 2000. This period was also marked by substantial job creation. The growth of the technology and service industries has opened up many new employment opportunities, helping to reduce unemployment and improve the quality of life of citizens. The unemployment rate in the United States fell significantly during this decade, from almost 7.5% in the early 1990s to around 4% by the end of the decade.

Collapse of the Stock Market Bubble: A New Reality

The bursting of the stock market bubble in 2001 marked a turning point in the US economy, bringing to an end an era of rapid economic growth and technological hegemony. This stock market crisis, which was closely linked to the bursting of the information and communication technology bubble, had a considerable and far-reaching impact well beyond the stock market. The stock market bubble of the 1990s was largely fuelled by speculative investment in the technology sector, particularly Internet companies and technology start-ups. Many of these companies, valued at astronomical sums despite often non-existent profits, saw their shares reach dizzying heights. However, this meteoric growth was based more on speculation than on solid economic foundations. When the bubble finally burst in 2001, many technology companies saw their value plummet, triggering a major stock market crisis and a loss of confidence in the technology sector. The economic impact of this crisis was profound. The US GDP growth rate, which had reached 4.1% in 2000, fell to around 1.2% in 2001. This marked slowdown was caused by a decline in investment in the technology sector, as well as a general drop in consumer and business confidence. This led to a slowdown in the economy as a whole, affecting various sectors and contributing to an increase in unemployment, particularly in the technology sector. The repercussions of the bursting of the stock market bubble extended far beyond the borders of the United States, affecting global markets and underlining the interconnected nature of the world economy. The crisis highlighted the risks associated with excessive speculation and overconfidence in fast-growing sectors. It has also demonstrated the need for greater regulation and oversight of financial markets to prevent similar crises in the future. In short, the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2001 not only marked the end of a period of economic prosperity in the United States, but also served as an important lesson in the volatility of financial markets and the importance of prudence in investment and economic management.

The paradox of the US economy in the 1990s and early 2000s lay in its ability to display apparent health while concealing underlying structural fragilities. This period was marked by robust economic growth, but this growth was partly underpinned by factors that also threatened its long-term stability. One of the main drivers of economic growth was household over-indebtedness. The positive economic climate of the 1990s encouraged consumers to increase their spending, often on credit. This rise in credit consumption stimulated the consumer and producer economy, making a significant contribution to economic growth. However, this model was based on the ability of households to repay their debts, an ability that could be jeopardised by a change in the economic context, such as a rise in interest rates or an economic slowdown. Businesses, particularly in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector, also contributed to this growth dynamic through over-indebtedness. In order to invest and innovate, many companies in the ICT sector have taken on large amounts of debt. While this debt has enabled rapid expansion and significant innovation, it has also made these companies vulnerable to market fluctuations and changes in financing conditions. An economic crisis occurs when the debt accumulated by both households and businesses can no longer be repaid. This creates difficulties not only for debtors, but also for lenders, who may find themselves faced with defaults and declining assets. In short, while debt played a key role in stimulating US economic growth, it also introduced an element of fragility, revealing an underlying vulnerability that could quickly turn a period of prosperity into an economic crisis.

The stock market bubble of the 1990s, particularly in the field of New Information and Communication Technologies (NICT), was a striking phenomenon characterised by a spectacular and ultimately unsustainable rise in the value of the shares of companies in the sector. This period saw a convergence of several factors that contributed to the formation of this speculative bubble. With the advent of the digital age and the explosion of Internet technologies, many innovative start-ups emerged, attracting the attention and investment of both large capitalist companies and small investors. The latter, often attracted by the prospect of quick profits, engaged in speculation, helping to artificially inflate the value of shares in NICT companies. This phenomenon has been accentuated by the opening up of markets and easier access to investment for the general public, leading to what is known as "popular capitalism". This term reflects the growing participation of individual investors in the stock market, often motivated by the attraction of rapid growth in stock market values in the NICT sector. However, the formation of the bubble revealed a growing divorce between the real economy and the financial economy. There was a significant distortion between financial value (the stock market valuation of companies) and real value (based on economic fundamentals such as revenues and profits). This situation led to a brutal corrective process when the bubble burst. Values, which were completely overestimated, collapsed, resulting in major losses for both private and individual investors. The bursting of the stock market bubble therefore led to an economic and social disaster, affecting not only companies in the NICT sector, but also the many investors who had bet on the continued rapid growth of stock market values. The crisis underlined the risks associated with excessive speculation and highlighted the dangers of a market disconnected from fundamental economic realities.

The financial crisis that began in the early 2000s and culminated in the crisis of 2008 is rooted in a series of problematic practices within listed companies, particularly in the New Information and Communication Technologies (NICT) sector. This period was characterised by the falsification of the balance sheets of many companies, a practice that misled investors and undermined confidence in the integrity of the financial markets. This was particularly damaging for investors in "popular capitalism", who depended on reliable and transparent information for their investment decisions. These dubious practices highlighted what can best be described as the 'structural demon' of the US economy: a growing reliance on debt. This trend has been exacerbated by the duality of the dollar, which is both a global reserve currency and a national currency, making monetary and financial management more complex. Excessive household debt, encouraged by years of easy credit and expansionary monetary policy, has created significant vulnerabilities in the economy. At the same time, excessive corporate debt has increased the risk of bankruptcies and market corrections. These factors, combined with a persistent negative trade balance, created fertile ground for the financial crisis of 2008. The crisis was triggered by the bursting of the housing bubble and exacerbated by the sub-prime crisis, where massive defaults on sub-prime mortgages triggered a meltdown in the banking and financial sector. This crisis revealed profound shortcomings in the global financial system, particularly in terms of financial market regulation and risk management. Ultimately, the run-up to the 2008 crisis was marked by a series of risky economic and financial decisions that ultimately led to one of the worst financial crises in modern history. The crisis highlighted the need for stricter regulation and improved governance in the financial sector, as well as the dangers of excessive reliance on debt and an economy based on speculation.

Towards the Financial Crisis of 2008: Premises and Triggers

The 2008 financial crisis, one of the most serious since the Great Depression, was indeed the result of a combination of interconnected factors that exposed the structural weaknesses of the global economy. This economic cataclysm can be attributed to several key causes. Firstly, excessive debt played a central role in the genesis of the crisis. Both households and businesses, particularly in the United States, took on large amounts of debt, often beyond their ability to repay. This dynamic was particularly pronounced in the property sector, where the practice of sub-prime mortgages encouraged the acquisition of property by borrowers with poor credit ratings. The US trade deficit also contributed to the crisis. A persistent trade imbalance led to a build-up of debt and increased dependence on foreign financing, leaving the US economy, and by extension the global economy, vulnerable to external shocks. The falsification of balance sheets by many companies has exacerbated the problem. This practice distorted cyclical assessments and misled investors, regulators and the public about the true health of companies and the financial market. When these manipulations were revealed, confidence in the financial markets collapsed. Finally, a growing distortion between the financial economy and economic fundamentals was an aggravating factor. Speculation on the financial markets, disconnected from the real economy, led to a dangerous overvaluation of financial assets. When the speculative bubble burst, it triggered a cascade of financial failures. The 2008 crisis was therefore the product of these interdependent factors, highlighting flaws in financial regulation, risk management and global economic imbalances. It highlighted the need for far-reaching reforms in the financial sector and triggered debates on the need to realign the financial economy with economic fundamentals.

The 2008 financial crisis revealed that traditional economic fundamentals are no longer the only determining parameters in analysing and understanding global economic dynamics. The introduction and growing importance of the financial parameter has added a significant layer of complexity and uncertainty to the global economy. The interaction between the real economy and financial markets has taken on a new dimension. Previously, financial markets were seen primarily as reflections of the real economy, meaning that financial market performance was largely dependent on economic fundamentals such as GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. However, with the rise of financialisation - the increasing importance of the financial sector in the overall economy - the relationship between the real economy and the financial markets became more complex and sometimes disconnected. Financial markets have begun to exert a more direct and sometimes dominant influence on the real economy. Complex financial products, speculative investment strategies and increased global integration of financial markets have created an environment where fluctuations in financial markets can have immediate and profound repercussions on the global economy, independently of traditional economic indicators. This new reality has introduced a greater degree of uncertainty into the global economy. Financial crises can now arise and spread rapidly, even in the absence of any apparent problems in economic fundamentals. This has highlighted the need for better understanding and management of the financial sector, more effective regulation of financial markets, and increased oversight of financial risks to prevent or mitigate future crises. The 2008 crisis marked a turning point, illustrating that the stability and health of the global economy now depends not only on traditional economic fundamentals, but also on the complex and interconnected dynamics of financial markets.

The 2008 financial crisis, one of the most devastating since the Great Depression, was the result of a complex combination of interconnected factors. One of the main triggers of the crisis was the rise in interest rates, which had a direct impact on the property market. After a prolonged period of low interest rates, which had encouraged an aggressive expansion of mortgage lending, including to high-risk borrowers, rising rates made mortgages more expensive. This reduced demand for homes, causing house prices to fall. This fall in house prices had serious consequences for borrowers, particularly those who had taken out variable-rate mortgages. Many found themselves in a situation where the value of their loan exceeded the value of their home, making it increasingly difficult to repay their loan. This situation, compounded by falling property values, led to a significant increase in defaults and foreclosures. At the same time, the market had seen a proliferation of sub-prime mortgages, granted to borrowers with poor credit ratings. As interest rates rose, these borrowers found it increasingly difficult to repay their loans, leading to a rise in defaults. The situation was exacerbated by the existence of complex financial instruments, such as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), which bundled together these sub-prime mortgages. The devaluation of these financial instruments, due to the increase in defaults, severely affected the financial institutions that held them. The financial crisis of 2008 was therefore the result of a series of interrelated problems: a rise in interest rates, an excess of subprime mortgages, a fall in demand and property prices, and the complexity of the financial products based on these loans. These elements converged to create a crisis of exceptional scale, revealing numerous weaknesses in the global financial system and underlining the need for stricter reforms and regulations to prevent similar crises in the future.

The 2008 financial crisis was exacerbated by the overvaluation of property assets, a phenomenon directly linked to the creation and distribution of complex financial products. Sub-prime mortgages played a central role in this dynamic. These loans were made to borrowers with low incomes or poor credit histories, and therefore represented a higher risk of default. The overvaluation of property assets was encouraged by a booming property market, where house prices rose significantly and steadily. This rise in prices created a sense of optimism and a belief that property values would continue to rise indefinitely. Against this backdrop, sub-prime mortgages became an attractive way for sub-prime borrowers to become homeowners, and for lenders to generate substantial profits. These subprime mortgages were often bundled together and transformed into complex financial instruments, such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Asset-Backed Securities (ABSs). These instruments were then sold to banks, pension funds and other investors, often under the impression that these investments were safe and profitable. Credit agency ratings, which often gave these instruments high marks, reinforced this perception. However, when the property market began to weaken and house prices fell, the value of these overvalued property assets began to plummet. This had a knock-on effect on the CDOs and ABSs that were backed by these mortgages. The banks and investors who held these financial instruments suffered huge losses, as the value of the underlying assets fell drastically and default rates on subprime loans soared. The overvaluation of property assets, combined with the proliferation of sub-prime loans and the creation of complex financial products based on these loans, was a key factor in triggering the 2008 financial crisis. This crisis highlighted the dangers of excessive speculation in the property market and the risks associated with poorly understood and insufficiently regulated financial products.

Labour Market Change: Structural Unemployment and the End of Full Employment

The current labour market situation is marked by a significant distortion, resulting from structural changes in the global economy. These changes are mainly due to deindustrialisation and the rise of the service sector. Since the 1970s, a process of deindustrialisation has been observed in many developed countries. This phenomenon has been characterised by a decline in the importance of the industrial sector in the economy, leading to the closure of many factories and the loss of manufacturing jobs. This de-industrialisation has posed major challenges, particularly in terms of retraining manual workers, whose skills are not always transferable to the service sector. At the same time as the industrial sector has declined, the tertiary sector, which includes services such as finance, education, health and information technology, has grown significantly. This expanding sector requires a different set of skills, often focused on technology, analysis and customer service. This economic shift has created a distortion in the labour market between those seeking to enter or re-enter, often armed with skills suited to a declining industrial sector, and those already integrated into the expanding services sector. This situation is exacerbated by the rapid pace of technological and economic change, making it difficult for many workers to adapt and retrain. In response to these challenges, continuous training and professional retraining policies are needed. These policies should help workers acquire the skills required in growth sectors and facilitate their transition to new areas of employment, thus ensuring a smoother adaptation to the changing realities of the labour market.

The current labour market landscape is strongly influenced by the decline in industrial employment and the rise in service employment, a phenomenon that marks a significant change from the era of the Trente Glorieuses. During this post-war period, despite the existence of sectors that had become obsolete, the industrial world was robust enough to compensate for these losses, often through the creation of new industrial jobs or through transformation within the same sector. However, with the advent of deindustrialisation, this dynamic has changed. The crisis in the industrial sector is no longer limited to problems internal to the secondary sector; it is also creating challenges in terms of professional retraining towards the tertiary sector. This transition is proving particularly difficult for blue-collar workers, who are often the hardest hit by these changes. The skills and experience acquired in the industrial sector do not necessarily match the requirements of the service sector, making their integration into the new labour market more complex. Workers, accustomed to a certain type of work and skills, often find themselves at a disadvantage in this new economic context. The transition to the service sector requires not only new skills, but also adaptation to a different working environment, often more focused on services, technology and interpersonal interaction. This raises important questions about the need for appropriate support and training policies. It is becoming crucial to put in place vocational training and retraining programmes, as well as employment support policies, to help workers in the industrial sector adapt and find opportunities in the expanding tertiary sector. Without these measures, there is a risk that a significant proportion of the industrial workforce will become marginalised in the modern economy.

The contemporary labour market is characterised by the "inside-outside" phenomenon, which illustrates the tendency of the market to close in on itself. This phenomenon makes it particularly complex for newcomers to enter the labour market, while mobility for those who are already integrated is generally easier. One of the main difficulties encountered by new arrivals, particularly young people, is the strong competition for entry-level positions, coupled with high requirements in terms of qualifications and experience. These obstacles are exacerbated by structural changes in the economy, such as de-industrialisation and the rise of the service sector, which require specific skills and appropriate training that are not always accessible to young entrants. This difficulty in accessing the labour market can have lasting implications for their career paths. On the other hand, for workers already established in the market, mobility within it is often facilitated by experience and skills acquired, as well as well-developed professional networks. These assets give them a competitive edge and facilitate their career progression or transition. Changes in the labour market also have gender implications. With the increase in employment in the tertiary sector, which tends to employ more women, and the decline in the secondary sector, traditionally dominated by male jobs, there is a potential rebalancing of opportunities between the genders. This could mean increased job opportunities for women, while men could face greater challenges, particularly in regions heavily affected by deindustrialisation.

The Welfare State: Rise, Challenges and Questioning

The Jobs Crisis at the Heart of the Welfare State Crisis

The evolution of the welfare state, from its heyday to its questioning, is intimately linked to the transformation of the labour market and technological change. This transition has had a profound impact on the social and economic model of the welfare state, particularly in Europe and North America.

During the Trente Glorieuses, technological innovation was generally associated with job creation. New technologies and industries created more jobs than they destroyed, fostering robust economic growth and a dynamic labour market. This favourable economic environment enabled welfare states to reach their peak between 1973 and 1990, marked by a significant increase in public spending on social protection, reflected in a growing share of GDP devoted to this expenditure.

However, from the 1990s onwards, this dynamic began to change. Innovations, particularly in the fields of automation and artificial intelligence, now seem to be destroying more jobs than ever before. Entire professions are being called into question by the arrival of technologies capable of carrying out tasks previously performed by humans. These developments are having a direct impact on the labour market, with rising unemployment and the casualisation of certain jobs.

The welfare state is thus faced with a twofold challenge. On the one hand, tax revenues, which largely finance social spending, are being affected by rising unemployment and job insecurity. Fewer people in work means less tax revenue from wages. On the other hand, expenditure is rising as more people rely on social benefits because of the difficulty of finding stable employment.

This situation has led to a rethink of welfare state models. Governments are faced with the need to reform their social protection systems to adapt them to this new economic and social reality, while ensuring the financial sustainability of these systems. Striking a balance between providing adequate social protection and managing public finances responsibly has become a central concern for many countries.

Challenges and Criticisms of the Welfare State

Questioning of the welfare state has grown over time, centred around two major criticisms that affect both its financial management and its social effectiveness. The emergence of budget deficits and the accumulation of public debt constitute the first major criticism of the welfare state. As social spending has increased, many governments have found themselves facing growing budget deficits, leading to a significant rise in public debt. This strained financial situation is often seen as the direct result of a system that is deemed to be too costly, or even a drain on public funds. Concerns about the long-term financial viability of the welfare state are exacerbated by falling tax revenues, a problem often linked to high unemployment rates and job insecurity. At the same time, there is a second major criticism of the social effectiveness of the welfare state. This debate focuses on the problems of abuse and fraud, particularly concerning undeclared work and the exploitation of social benefits. Some critics argue that the welfare state, in its current form, can create negative incentives, discouraging formal employment and encouraging a certain dependence on social benefits. This perspective has fuelled a discourse around the 'abusers' of the system, questioning the need for reforms to make social protection programmes more effective, accountable and less vulnerable to abuse. These criticisms highlight the complex challenges facing welfare states in the current economic and social context. On the one hand, there is an imperative need to provide a safety net for the most vulnerable citizens, and on the other, there is growing pressure to manage public finances responsibly and ensure that social protection systems are efficient and equitable. Striking a balance between these divergent objectives is a central challenge in contemporary political and economic debates about the future and shape of the welfare state.

The downsizing of welfare state policies in the 1980s was strongly influenced by the rise of neo-liberalism, an economic and political ideology that stood as a reaction to the dominant Keynesian principles of the post-war era. Neo-liberalism gained popularity during a period marked by an economic slowdown, increasing public spending to support the welfare state, and global political changes, notably the fall of the Soviet bloc. Neo-liberalism advocates a laissez-faire approach to economics, supporting a significant reduction in state intervention in the economy. Market liberalisation, privatisation of state-owned enterprises, deregulation and free competition are seen as the best means of stimulating economic growth and efficiency. Two political figures are often associated with the rise of neo-liberalism in the 1980s: Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom, elected in 1979, and Ronald Reagan in the United States, elected in 1981. Both leaders implemented economic policies that reflected neo-liberal principles. Under Thatcher and Reagan, policies of privatisation, cuts in public spending, deregulation of industries and reducing the influence of trade unions were adopted. The aim of these measures was to reduce the role of the state in the economy and encourage greater participation by the private sector. This period marked a significant turning point in global economic policy. Neo-liberalism not only influenced domestic policies in the UK and the US, but also had an impact on global economic governance, with the promotion of market liberalisation on an international scale. Neo-liberal reforms have led to lasting changes in the structure of national economies and the global economic order.

The neo-liberal policies adopted in the 1980s led to significant changes in many aspects of social and economic governance, particularly in the field of education. A notable example of these changes is the transition from the allocation of student grants to the distribution of student loans. This change reflects a broader philosophy of neo-liberalism, according to which the individual is responsible for his or her own life and finances, including education. Under the neo-liberal approach, rather than providing grants to cover tuition fees as a gift, the emphasis is on student loans. These loans are to be repaid by students after completion of their studies, placing the financial responsibility directly on the individual. This approach is based on the idea that education is a personal investment for which the student should bear the costs, with the expectation that this investment will translate into better future income and career opportunities. This philosophy contrasts with the principles of classical and Keynesian liberalism, where access to education is often seen as a right, and where the state plays a more active role in providing educational opportunities, including through grants. Classical liberalism would argue that education should be accessible to all, regardless of their financial situation, and that the state has a role to play in ensuring this access. The move towards student loans is also based on the idea that the best and brightest individuals should be able to use their entrepreneurial spirit and personal initiative to succeed. However, this approach has been criticised for potentially creating financial barriers to education, limiting access to those who can afford the cost of loans, and increasing debt for young graduates. The shift from grants to student loans under the influence of neo-liberalism reflects a philosophy of individual responsibility and self-financing, but also raises questions about the equity and accessibility of education in contemporary society.

Trends in Poverty Rates: Context and Implications

Rising poverty rates and growing inequalities in income distribution are worrying phenomena in many countries, exacerbated by neo-liberal policies and the effects of economic globalisation. The increase in the poverty rate is the result of several interdependent factors. De-industrialisation and job insecurity have led to a reduction in stable, well-paid jobs, particularly for low-skilled workers. At the same time, cuts in social spending by the welfare state, a pillar of neo-liberal policies, have weakened safety nets for the most vulnerable. Reduced investment in essential public services such as education and health has also contributed to this rise in poverty, leaving individuals and families less protected against the vagaries of the economy. At the same time, income inequalities are widening. Economic policies favouring deregulation, market liberalisation and tax cuts for the wealthiest have often been criticised for reinforcing the concentration of wealth within the richest strata of society. This concentration of wealth is at odds with the stagnation or deterioration of economic conditions for the majority of the population, creating a widening gap between rich and poor. The consequences of these phenomena are profound and varied. Socially, rising poverty and inequality can lead to increased fragmentation and polarisation of society, exacerbating social tensions and eroding social cohesion. Economically, these inequalities can restrict aggregate demand, as low-income people tend to spend a greater proportion of their income, which can limit overall economic growth. In the face of these challenges, there are calls for reform of economic and social policies, calling for a fairer distribution of wealth, stronger social safety nets, and greater investment in public services. These measures aim to establish more balanced and just societies, where opportunities and wealth are better shared between all segments of the population.

The situation in Switzerland regarding pensions and the elderly vote raises important questions about demography, social policy and intergenerational solidarity. In Switzerland, as in many other developed countries, the population is ageing as a result of rising life expectancy and low birth rates. This demographic change has significant implications for retirement and pension systems. The elderly, who make up a growing proportion of the population, often have a direct interest in pension and retirement policies. In Switzerland, where the political system allows for direct citizen participation through referendums and popular initiatives, older people can exert a significant influence on political decisions, particularly those concerning pensions. Rising pension costs are a major concern in Switzerland, as the number of pensioners increases while the number of contributing workers remains relatively stable or grows slowly. This puts financial pressure on the pension system, which has to find ways to fund retirement payments for a growing number of beneficiaries. This situation can lead to intergenerational conflict, as younger generations may feel aggrieved by a system that requires them to make increasing contributions to support pensions that they perceive as uncertain for their own future. On the other hand, retirees depend on these pensions for their financial security. Switzerland, like other countries facing similar demographic challenges, has to strike a balance between the needs and expectations of the elderly and the economic and social realities affecting younger generations. This often involves discussions about reforming pension systems, finding sustainable sources of funding and creating equitable policies that take into account the needs of all generations.

Analysis of Factors Contributing to the Rise in Inequality

The rise in inequality and poverty in many countries is a complex phenomenon, one of the main causes of which is the retreat of the welfare state and the reduction in public spending. This trend, which began in the 1980s under the influence of neo-liberalism, has led to significant changes in the way governments approach social protection and the distribution of wealth. The retreat of the welfare state is characterised by reduced investment in essential social programmes. These include health, education, social housing, family support and pensions. Historically, the welfare state played a crucial role in reducing inequality by providing a safety net for the most vulnerable individuals and families. However, as public spending in these areas has fallen, the support offered by the state has weakened, increasing the risk of poverty and inequality. Cuts in public spending have had a direct impact on the poorest sections of the population, limiting their access to essential services. For example, budget cuts in education can restrict access to quality education for children from disadvantaged backgrounds, while reductions in health spending can make medical care inaccessible to people on low incomes. In addition, tax cuts for high earners and businesses, often justified by the desire to stimulate the economy, have contributed to an unequal distribution of wealth, with the accumulation of wealth in the hands of a minority. The retreat of the welfare state and cuts in public spending have played a key role in the rise of inequality and poverty. These policies have reduced the capacity of the state to provide adequate support to those most in need and have exacerbated economic and social disparities. Consequently, the fight against poverty and inequality requires a recommitment to more inclusive and equitable social and economic policies.

The weakening of trade unions over recent decades has played a significant role in increasing inequality and poverty. Historically, trade unions have been essential in defending workers' rights, negotiating fair wages and decent working conditions, and establishing labour standards that benefit a wide range of workers. However, various economic, political and social changes have led to their weakening. The changing economic structure, notably deindustrialisation and the emergence of the service sector, has eroded the traditional trade union base. In the service sector, unionisation is less widespread, and new forms of work such as freelance and contract work make unionisation more difficult. In addition, the neo-liberal policies adopted since the 1980s have often favoured the flexibilisation and deregulation of the labour market, weakening the power of trade unions and reducing their ability to protect workers' interests. Employers' attitudes towards unionisation have also changed, with many companies adopting strategies to discourage union formation or minimise their influence. At the same time, changes in labour legislation in some countries have restricted union activities, limiting their ability to act effectively. The impact of the weakening of trade unions on inequality and poverty is profound. Without effective union representation, workers have less power to negotiate fair wages and working conditions. This can lead to wage stagnation, an increase in precarious work and a deterioration in working conditions, exacerbating economic and social inequalities. Faced with this situation, it becomes essential to support workers' rights to organise and bargain collectively, and to recognise the crucial importance of trade unions in promoting equity and social and economic justice.

The globalisation of the labour market has brought about a profound transformation in global economic dynamics, marked by increased competition on the international labour market. This has brought both opportunities and challenges. With globalisation, companies now have access to a global workforce, intensifying competition for jobs. Workers are no longer just competing with their local peers, but also with those from countries where labour costs are often lower. This global competition can exert downward pressure on wages and working conditions, even in developed economies, as companies seek to remain competitive by minimising costs. One of the most visible aspects of this globalisation is the relocation and outsourcing of certain operations to countries where production costs are lower. Although this strategy can generate jobs in emerging economies, it often leads to job losses in developed countries, raising questions about the quality of the jobs created and workers' rights in these new environments. Globalisation also offers new opportunities, such as greater international mobility for some workers and access to enlarged markets for professionals and companies. However, it also presents major challenges, including the need for workers to adapt to an ever-changing global market and to maintain decent working and living standards. Faced with this complex reality, governments, companies and international organisations are faced with the difficult task of balancing the benefits and challenges of globalisation. It is becoming imperative to protect workers' rights and conditions while taking advantage of the opportunities offered by a more open and interconnected labour market. This requires a coordinated approach and appropriate policies to ensure that globalisation benefits all stakeholders fairly.

Thomas Piketty, in his research on the distribution of wealth and income, has made an important contribution to the understanding of contemporary economic inequalities. In particular, he has challenged the Kuznets curve, which postulated that economic inequality would decline as countries developed economically. According to Piketty, contrary to this hypothesis, inequalities have increased, notably due to the accumulation of capital among the richest, many of whom have inherited their wealth rather than having created it. Piketty points out that this accumulation of wealth among a minority leads to an increase in inequality, since this wealth is not redistributed fairly throughout society. This situation is exacerbated by tax systems that often favour the wealthiest and by a lack of investment in public services and social assistance that could benefit the majority of the population. At the same time, the Kuznets curve is also being put to the test by the growing duality of working sectors, particularly in the service sector. This sector is characterised by a wide variety of jobs, ranging from high-paying positions in areas such as finance or technology to insecure, low-paid jobs in services, retail or hospitality. This duality creates a dichotomy where some can earn large sums of money while others, often referred to as the "working poor", struggle to support themselves despite having a job. Migratory flows to developed countries often tend to be concentrated in the least remunerative sectors of the labour market, reinforcing this dualisation of the labour market. Migrants, in search of opportunities, often find themselves in low-skilled, low-paid jobs, which contributes to economic and social stratification. Piketty's observations and the challenges posed to the Kuznets curve highlight a growing duality and complexity in the global economy, marked by increasingly pronounced inequalities. This situation highlights the need for economic and social policies that promote a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunities, in order to reduce disparities and promote inclusive economic growth.

Rapid technological change, particularly in the areas of digitalisation and automation, has profoundly transformed the labour market, leading to a marked dualisation. This dualisation is characterised by a growing division between high-skilled jobs, which are often well-paid, and low-skilled jobs, which are generally less well-paid. On the one hand, technological change has created a strong demand for specialist skills in areas such as IT, engineering, data science and other cutting-edge sectors. People with these specialist skills are often well paid and enjoy good working conditions. These jobs are at the heart of the modern economy, characterised by rapid innovation, high demand for skilled labour and high wages, reflecting the growing importance of human capital in economic development. On the other hand, many lower-skilled jobs, particularly in manufacturing and services, are threatened by automation and digitalisation. These jobs are often characterised by lower pay, greater job insecurity and limited career prospects. Workers in these areas face competition from technologies that can perform repetitive tasks more cheaply and efficiently. This dualisation of the labour market has major social and economic implications. It contributes to an increase in income inequalities and can lead to a social divide, where one part of the population benefits from economic growth while another is excluded. This situation raises major challenges in terms of employment policy and vocational training, highlighting the need to adapt the skills of the workforce to the changing demands of the economy. Faced with these challenges, it is essential that governments and educational institutions develop strategies to improve access to education and continuing vocational training. The aim is to prepare workers effectively for the realities of tomorrow's economy and to reduce the gap between high-skilled and low-skilled jobs. These efforts are crucial to forging a more inclusive and equitable labour market, capable of meeting the needs of the ever-changing global economy.

Annexes

References

  1. ↑ Page personnelle de Michel Oris sur le site de l'Université de Genève
  2. ↑ CV de Michel Oris en français
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