« The demographic regime of the Ancien Régime: homeostasis » : différence entre les versions
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== The concept of homeostasis == | == The concept of homeostasis == | ||
Homeostasis is a fundamental principle that applies to many biological and ecological systems, including human populations and their interaction with the environment. It is the ability of a system to maintain a stable internal condition despite external changes. In the context of the Ancien Régime, where technology and the means of acting on the environment were limited, populations had to adapt continuously to maintain this dynamic balance with the available resources. Crises such as famines, epidemics and wars tested the resilience of this balance. However, even in the face of these disruptions, communities strove to re-establish the balance through various survival and adaptation strategies. Farmers, in particular, played an essential role in maintaining demographic homeostasis. They were the most directly affected by crop failure or climate change, but they were also the first to respond to these challenges. Through their empirical knowledge of natural cycles and their ability to adjust their farming practices, they were able to mitigate the impact of these crises. For example, they could alternate crops, store reserves for difficult years, or adapt their diet to cope with food shortages. In addition, rural communities often had systems of solidarity and mutual aid that enabled them to spread risk and help the most vulnerable members in the event of a crisis. This type of social resilience is another aspect of homeostasis, where the cohesion and organisation of society help to maintain demographic and social equilibrium. Homeostasis, in this context, is therefore less a question of active control over the environment than of adaptive responses that enable populations to survive and recover from disturbances, continuing the cycle of stability and change. | |||
Before the advances of modern medicine and the industrial revolution, human populations were heavily influenced by the principles of homeostasis, which regulate the balance between available resources and the number of people who depend on them. Societies had to find ways of adapting to the limitations of their environment in order to survive. Agricultural techniques such as biennial and triennial crop rotation were homeostatic responses to the challenges of food production. These methods allowed soil fertility to be rested and regenerated by alternating crops and fallow periods, thus helping to prevent land exhaustion and maintain a level of production that could meet the needs of the population. Since food resources could not be significantly increased before the technical and agricultural innovations of the industrial revolution, demographic regulation was often achieved through social and cultural mechanisms. For example, the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy limited population growth by shortening women's fertility period and thus lowering the birth rate. Natural selection also played a role in population dynamics. Epidemics, such as the plague, and famines often eliminated the most vulnerable individuals, leaving behind a population that had either natural resistance or social practices that contributed to survival. This homeostatic dynamism reflects the capacity of biological and social systems to absorb disturbances and return to a state of equilibrium, although this equilibrium may be at a different level from that prior to the disturbance. As in ecosystems, where a fire can destroy a forest but is followed by regeneration, human societies have developed mechanisms to manage and overcome crises. | |||
== | == Long-term micro and macro stability == | ||
The historical perception of people's powerlessness in the face of major crises, particularly death and disease, has long been influenced by the apparent lack of means to understand and control these events. Indeed, before the modern era and the rise of scientific medicine, the exact causes of many illnesses and deaths often remained mysterious. As a result, medieval and pre-modern societies relied heavily on religion, superstition and traditional remedies to try and cope with these crises. However, this vision of complete passivity has been challenged by more recent historical research. It is now recognised that even in the face of seemingly uncontrollable forces, such as plague epidemics or famines, the populations of the time were not entirely resigned. Peasants and other social classes developed strategies to mitigate the impact of crises. For example, they adopted innovative farming practices, introduced quarantine measures, or even migrated to regions less affected by famine or disease. The measures taken could also be community-based, such as organising charity to support those most affected by the crisis. In addition, social and family structures could offer a degree of resilience, by sharing resources and supporting the most vulnerable members. After the Second World War, the situation changed radically with the establishment of social security systems in many countries, the advent of modern healthcare and increased access to information, which led to better understanding and prevention of public health crises. Security of life has improved as a result of these developments, considerably reducing the feeling of powerlessness in the face of illness and death. | |||
= | = Social regulations: the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy = | ||
== | == Implementation: 16th century - 18th century == | ||
During the period from the Middle Ages to the end of the pre-industrial period, European populations implemented a demographic regulation strategy known as the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy. Historical data reveals that this practice led to a relatively high age at marriage and substantial rates of celibacy, particularly among women. For example, historians have documented that during the sixteenth century, the average age at first marriage for women ranged from 19 to 22, while by the eighteenth century this age had risen to between 25 and 27 in many regions. These figures show a significant departure from the norms of medieval times, and contrast sharply with other parts of the world where the age at marriage was much lower and celibacy less common. The percentage of women who never married was also notable. Estimates suggest that between the 16th and 18th centuries, between 10% and 15% of women remained single throughout their lives. This rate of celibacy contributed to a natural limitation in population size, which was particularly crucial in an economy where land was the main source of wealth and subsistence. This system of marriage and birth rate was probably influenced by economic and social factors. With land unable to support a rapidly growing population, late marriage and permanent celibacy served as a population control mechanism. In addition, with inheritance systems tending towards the equal division of land, having fewer children meant avoiding excessive division of land, which could have led to an economic decline in peasant families. | |||
== | == The Saint Petersburg - Trieste line == | ||
[[Fichier:Ligne saint petersburg trieste.png|200px|vignette|droite]] | [[Fichier:Ligne saint petersburg trieste.png|200px|vignette|droite]] | ||
The system of late marriage and permanent celibacy was characteristic of certain parts of Europe, particularly in the western and northern regions. The distinction between Western and Eastern Europe in terms of marriage practices was marked by considerable social and economic differences. In the West, where this system was in force, an imaginary line stretching from St Petersburg to Trieste marked the border of this demographic model. Peasants and families in the West often owned their land or had significant rights to it, and inheritance passed through the family line. These conditions favoured the implementation of a birth limitation strategy to preserve the integrity and viability of family farms. Families sought to avoid the fragmentation of land across generations, which could have weakened their economic position. To the east of this line, however, and particularly in areas subject to serfdom, the system was different. Peasants in Eastern Europe were often serfs, tied to their lord's land and with no property to pass on. In this context, there was no immediate economic pressure to limit family size through late marriage or celibacy. Matrimonial practices were more universal and marriages were often arranged for social and economic reasons, without the direct consideration of a strategy to preserve family land. This dichotomy between East and West reflects the diversity of socio-economic structures in Europe prior to the major upheavals of the Industrial Revolution, which would ultimately transform marriage systems and family structures across the continent. | |||
== Les effets démographiques == | == Les effets démographiques == | ||
Version du 28 novembre 2023 à 15:00
Based on a lecture by Michel Oris[1][2][3]
Structures Agraires et Société Rurale: Analyse de la Paysannerie Européenne Préindustrielle ● Le régime démographique d'ancien régime : l'homéostasie ● Évolution des Structures Socioéconomiques au XVIIIe Siècle : De l’Ancien Régime à la Modernité ● Origines et causes de la révolution industrielle anglaise ● Mécanismes structurels de la révolution industrielle ● La diffusion de la révolution industrielle en Europe continentale ● La Révolution Industrielle au-delà de l'Europe : les États-Unis et le Japon ● Les coûts sociaux de la révolution industrielle ● Analyse Historique des Phases Conjoncturelles de la Première Mondialisation ● Dynamiques des Marchés Nationaux et Mondialisation des Échanges de Produits ● La formation de systèmes migratoires mondiaux ● Dynamiques et Impacts de la Mondialisation des Marchés de l'Argent : Le Rôle Central de la Grande-Bretagne et de la France ● La transformation des structures et des relations sociales durant la révolution industrielle ● Aux Origines du Tiers-Monde et l'Impact de la Colonisation ● Echecs et blocages dans les Tiers-Mondes ● Mutation des Méthodes de Travail: Évolution des Rapports de Production de la Fin du XIXe au Milieu du XXe ● L'Âge d'Or de l'Économie Occidentale : Les Trente Glorieuses (1945-1973) ● L'Économie Mondiale en Mutation : 1973-2007 ● Les défis de l’État-Providence ● Autour de la colonisation : peurs et espérances du développement ● Le Temps des Ruptures: Défis et Opportunités dans l'Économie Internationale ● Globalisation et modes de développement dans les « tiers-mondes »
Between the 15th and 18th centuries, pre-industrial Europe was the scene of a fascinating demographic equilibrium known as demographic homeostasis. This historical period, rich in transformations, saw societies and economies develop against the backdrop of a demographic regime in which population growth was carefully counterbalanced by regulatory forces such as epidemics, armed conflicts and famines. This natural demographic self-regulation has proved to be an engine of stability, orchestrating measured and sustainable economic and social development.
This delicate demographic balance has not only fostered moderate and sustainable population growth in Europe, but has also laid the foundations for coherent economic and social progress. Thanks to this phenomenon of homeostasis, Europe has managed to avoid extreme demographic upheaval, allowing its pre-industrial economies and societies to flourish within a framework of gradual, controlled change.
In this article, we take a closer look at the dynamics of this ancient demographic regime and its crucial influence on the fabric of European economies and communities before the advent of industrialisation, highlighting how this delicate balance facilitated an orderly transition to more complex economic and social structures.
Mortality crises under the Ancien Régime
During the Ancien Régime, Europe was faced with frequent and devastating mortality crises, often described through the metaphor of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Each of these horsemen represented one of the major calamities that struck society and contributed to a high mortality rate.
Famine, resulting from poor harvests, extreme weather conditions or economic disruption, was a recurring scourge. It weakened the population, reduced its resilience to disease and led to a dramatic increase in mortality among the poorest. Periods of famine were often followed or accompanied by epidemics which, in a context of widespread weakness, found a fertile breeding ground for their spread. Wars were another major source of mortality. In addition to deaths on the battlefield, conflicts had deleterious effects on agricultural production and infrastructure, leading to a deterioration in living conditions and an increase in deaths indirectly linked to war. Epidemics, for their part, were perhaps the most merciless of the horsemen. Diseases such as the plague and cholera struck indiscriminately, sometimes wiping out entire districts or villages. The absence of effective treatments and a lack of medical knowledge exacerbated their lethal impact. Finally, the horseman representing death embodied the fatal outcome of these three plagues, as well as the daily mortality caused by ageing, accidents and other natural or violent causes. These mortality crises, through their direct and indirect consequences, regulated European demography, keeping the population at a level that the resources of the time could sustain.
The impact of these riders on Ancien Régime society was immense, indelibly shaping the demographic, economic and social structures of the time and leaving a deep imprint on European history.
The hunger
Jusqu'aux années 1960, la vision prédominante était que la faim constituait le principal facteur de mortalité au Moyen Âge. Cependant, cette perspective a évolué avec la reconnaissance de la nécessité de distinguer la disette de la famine. Si la famine était un événement catastrophique avec des conséquences mortelles massives, la disette était plutôt une occurrence courante dans la vie médiévale, marquée par des périodes de pénurie alimentaire plus modérées mais fréquentes. Dans des villes comme Florence, le cycle agricole était ponctué de périodes de disette presque rythmiques, avec des épisodes de pénurie alimentaire survenant environ tous les quatre ans. Ces épisodes étaient liés aux fluctuations de la production agricole et à la gestion des ressources céréalières. À la fin de chaque saison de récolte, la population se retrouvait devant un dilemme : consommer la production de l'année pour satisfaire les besoins immédiats ou en conserver une part pour ensemencer les champs pour la prochaine saison. Une année de disette pouvait survenir lorsque les récoltes étaient simplement suffisantes pour subvenir aux besoins immédiats de la population, sans pour autant permettre un excédent pour les réserves ou les semences futures. Cette situation précaire était exacerbée par le fait qu'il était impératif de réserver une portion des grains pour les semailles. L'insuffisance de la production signifiait alors que la population devait endurer une période de restrictions alimentaires, avec des rations diminuées jusqu'à la prochaine récolte, en espérant que celle-ci soit plus abondante. Ces périodes de disette ne menaient pas systématiquement à une mortalité de masse comme c'était le cas lors des famines, mais elles avaient néanmoins un impact considérable sur la santé et la longévité de la population. La malnutrition chronique affaiblissait la résistance aux maladies et pouvait augmenter indirectement la mortalité, en particulier chez les individus les plus vulnérables comme les enfants et les personnes âgées. Ainsi, la disette jouait son rôle dans le fragile équilibre démographique du Moyen Âge, façonnant subtilement la structure de la population médiévale.
La distinction entre famine et disette est cruciale pour comprendre les conditions de vie et les facteurs de mortalité au Moyen Âge. Alors que la disette se réfère à des périodes de pénurie alimentaire récurrentes et gérables jusqu'à un certain point, la famine désigne des crises alimentaires aiguës où les individus meurent de faim, souvent en résultat de récoltes dramatiquement insuffisantes causées par des catastrophes climatiques. Un exemple frappant est l'éruption d'un volcan islandais aux alentours de 1696, qui a déclenché un refroidissement climatique temporaire en Europe, parfois décrit comme un "mini âge glaciaire". Cet événement extrême a provoqué une réduction drastique des rendements agricoles, plongeant le continent dans des famines dévastatrices. En Finlande, cette période a été si tragique que près de 30% de la population a péri, soulignant l'extrême vulnérabilité des sociétés préindustrielles face aux aléas climatiques. À Florence, l'histoire démontre que bien que la disette était un visiteur régulier, avec des périodes difficiles tous les quatre ans environ, la famine était un fléau beaucoup plus sporadique, survenant tous les quarante ans en moyenne. Cette différence met en lumière une réalité importante : bien que la faim soit une compagne presque constante pour de nombreuses personnes à l'époque, la mort massive due à la famine était relativement rare. Ainsi, contrairement aux perceptions antérieures largement répandues jusqu'aux années 1960, la famine n'était pas la cause principale de la mortalité à l'époque médiévale. Les historiens ont révisé cette conception en reconnaissant que d'autres facteurs, tels que les épidémies et les conditions sanitaires précaires, jouaient un rôle beaucoup plus significatif dans la mortalité de masse. Cette compréhension nuancée aide à peindre un tableau plus précis de la vie et des défis auxquels étaient confrontées les populations du Moyen Âge.
Les guerres
This graph shows the number of war actions in Europe over a 430-year period, from 1320 to 1750. From the curve, we can see that military activity fluctuated considerably over this period, with several peaks that could correspond to periods of major conflict. These peaks could represent major wars such as the Hundred Years' War, the Italian Wars, the Wars of Religion in France, the Thirty Years' War, and the various conflicts involving European powers in the 17th and early 18th centuries. The 'rolling three-year sum' method used to compile the data indicates that the figures have been smoothed over three-year periods to give a clearer picture of trends, rather than reflecting annual variations which may be more chaotic and less representative of long-term trends. It is important to note that this type of historical graph allows researchers to identify patterns and cycles in military activity and correlate them with other historical, economic or demographic events for a better understanding of historical dynamics.
Throughout the Middle Ages and right up to the dawn of the modern period, wars were an almost constant reality in Europe. However, the nature of these conflicts changed significantly over the centuries, reflecting wider political and social developments. In the 14th century, the conflict landscape was dominated by small-scale feudal wars. These clashes, which were often localised, were mainly the result of rivalries between lords over control of land or the settlement of succession disputes. Although these skirmishes may have been violent and destructive at a local level, they were not comparable in scale or consequences to the wars that were to follow. With the consolidation of nation states and the emergence of sovereigns seeking to extend their power beyond their traditional borders, the 14th and 15th centuries saw the emergence of conflicts of unprecedented scale and destructiveness. These new state wars were waged by larger and better organised standing armies, often supported by a burgeoning bureaucratic complex. War thus became an instrument of national policy, with objectives ranging from territorial conquest to the assertion of dynastic supremacy. The impact of these conflicts on the civilian population was often indirect but devastating. As the logistics of armies were still primitive, military stewardship relied heavily on requisitioning and plundering the resources of the regions they passed through. Armies in the field took their sustenance directly from local economies, seizing crops and livestock, destroying infrastructure and spreading famine and disease among civilians. War thus became a calamity for the non-combatant population, depriving them of the means of subsistence they needed to survive. It was not so much the fighting itself that caused the greatest number of civilian deaths, but rather the collapse of local economic structures due to the insatiable needs of the armies. This form of food warfare had a considerable demographic impact, reducing populations not only through direct violence, but also by creating precarious living conditions that encouraged disease and death. War, in this context, was both an engine of destruction and a vector of demographic crisis.
The military history of the pre-modern era clearly shows that armies were not only instruments of conquest and destruction, but also powerful vectors for the spread of disease. Troop movements across continents and borders played a significant role in the spread of epidemics, amplifying their scope and impact. The historical example of the Black Death is a tragic illustration of this dynamic. When the Mongol army laid siege to Caffa, a Genoese trading post in the Crimea, in the 14th century, it unwittingly initiated a chain of events that would lead to one of the greatest health disasters in human history. Bubonic plague, already present among the Mongol troops, was transmitted to the besieged population through attacks and trade. Infected by the disease, the inhabitants of Caffa then fled by sea and returned to Genoa. At the time, Genoa was a major city in the world's trade networks, which facilitated the rapid spread of the plague throughout Italy and, eventually, the whole of Europe. Ships leaving Genoa with infected people on board brought the plague to many Mediterranean ports, from where the disease spread inland, following trade routes and population movements. The impact of the Black Death on Europe was cataclysmic. It is estimated that the pandemic killed between 30% and 60% of the European population, causing massive demographic decline and profound social change. It was a stark reminder of how war and trade could interact with disease to shape the course of history. The Black Death thus became synonymous with a time when disease could reshape the contours of societies with unprecedented speed and scale.
The epidemics
This image represents a historical graph showing the number of places affected by the plague in north-west Europe from 1347 to 1800, with a rolling three-year sum to smooth out variations over short periods. This graph clearly illustrates several major epidemics, with peaks indicating a strong spread of the disease at different times. The first and most pronounced peak corresponds to the Black Death pandemic that began in 1347. This wave had devastating consequences for the population of the time, causing the death of a large proportion of Europeans in the space of a few years. After this first major peak, the graph shows several other significant episodes in which the number of places affected increased, reflecting periodic reappearances of the disease. These peaks may correspond to events such as new introductions of the pathogen into the population through trade or troop movements, as well as conditions favouring the proliferation of rats and fleas carrying the disease. Towards the end of the graph, after 1750, there was a decline in the frequency and intensity of epidemics, which may indicate a better understanding of the disease, improvements in public health, urban development, climate change or other factors that helped to reduce the impact of the plague. These data are valuable for understanding the impact of the plague on European history and the evolution of human responses to pandemics.
The relationship between malnutrition, disease and mortality is a crucial component in understanding historical demographic dynamics. In pre-industrial societies, an uncertain and often precarious food supply contributed to increased vulnerability to infectious diseases. Starving populations, weakened by the lack of regular access to adequate and nutritious food, were much less resistant to infection, which considerably increased the risk of mortality during epidemics. The plague, in particular, was a recurrent scourge in Europe throughout the Middle Ages and long after, having a profound effect on society and the economy. The Black Death of the 14th century is perhaps the most notorious example, having decimated a substantial proportion of the European population. The persistence of the plague well into the 18th century bears witness to the complex interaction between human beings, animal vectors such as rats, and pathogenic bacteria such as Yersinia pestis, which causes the plague. Rats, carriers of fleas infected with the bacterium, were omnipresent in densely populated cities and on ships, facilitating the transmission of the disease. However, the spread of the plague could not be attributed to rodents alone; human activities also played an essential role. Armies on the move and merchants travelling trade routes were effective agents of transmission, as they carried the disease with them from one region to another, often at speeds that societies of the time were ill-equipped to manage. This pattern of disease spread highlights the importance of social and economic infrastructures in public health, even in ancient times. The context of plague epidemics reveals the extent to which seemingly unrelated factors, such as trade and troop movements, can have a direct and devastating impact on the health of populations.
The Black Death, which struck Europe in the mid-14th century, is considered to be one of the most devastating pandemics in human history. The demographic impact of the disease was unprecedented, with estimates indicating that up to a third of the continent's population was wiped out between 1348 and 1351. This event profoundly shaped the course of European history, leading to significant socio-economic changes. The plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It is mainly associated with rats, but it is actually fleas that transmit the bacteria to humans. The bubonic version of the plague is characterised by the appearance of buboes, swollen lymph nodes, particularly in the groin, armpits and neck. The disease is extremely painful and often fatal, with a high rate of contagion. The rapid spread of the bubonic plague was partly due to the deplorable hygiene conditions of the time. Overcrowding, a lack of public health knowledge and close cohabitation with rodents created ideal conditions for the spread of the disease. According to some theories, a form of natural selection took place during this pandemic. The weakest individuals were the first to succumb, while those who survived were often those with a natural resistance or who had developed immunity. This could explain the temporary regression of the disease after the first fatal waves. However, this immunity was not permanent; over time, a new generation with no natural immunity became vulnerable, allowing the disease to re-emerge. The 17th century saw new waves of plague in Europe. Although these epidemics were fatal, they did not reach the catastrophic levels of the Black Death. In France, a large proportion of deaths in the 17th century were still due to the plague, which led to "excess mortality". The effect of the plague on the demography of the Ancien Régime was such that natural population growth (the difference between births and deaths) was often absorbed by plague deaths. This led to a relatively stable or stagnant population, with little long-term net growth due to the plague and other diseases that continued to strike the population at regular intervals.
The plague mercilessly attacked the entire population, but certain factors could make individuals more vulnerable. Young adults, who were often more mobile due to their involvement in trade, travel or even as soldiers, were more likely to be exposed to the plague. This age group is also more likely to have extensive social contacts, which increases their risk of exposure to infectious diseases. The high mortality among young adults during plague epidemics had far-reaching demographic implications, notably by reducing the number of future births. Individuals who died before having children represented 'lost births', a phenomenon that reduces the population's growth potential for subsequent generations. This phenomenon was not unique to the plague era. A similar effect was observed after the First World War. The war resulted in the deaths of millions of young men, making up a largely lost generation. Lost births" refer to the children these men might have had had they survived. The demographic impact of these losses reverberated far beyond the battlefields, affecting population structure for decades. The consequence of these two historic disasters can be seen in the age pyramids following these events, where there is a deficit in the corresponding age groups. The decline in the population of childbearing age has led to a natural decline in the birth rate, an ageing population and a change in the social and economic structure of society. These changes have often required major social and economic adjustments to meet the new demographic challenges.
During the Black Death, for example, the most vulnerable population - often referred to as "the weak" in terms of resilience to disease - suffered heavy losses. Those who survived were generally more resilient, either through the good fortune of less severe exposure, or through innate or acquired resistance to disease. The immediate effect of this natural selection of some kind was to reduce overall mortality because the proportion of the population that survived was more resilient. However, this resilience is not necessarily permanent. Over time, this 'stronger' population ages and becomes more vulnerable to other diseases or to the recurrence of the same disease, especially if the disease progresses. As a result, mortality could rise again, reflecting a cycle of resilience and vulnerability. The mortality curve would therefore be marked by successive peaks and troughs. After an epidemic, mortality would fall as the most resistant individuals survive, but over time and under the effect of other stress factors such as famine, war or the emergence of new diseases, it could rise again. This "hatched curve" reflects the ongoing interaction between environmental stressors and population dynamics. The plague wiped out the surplus of births over deaths. The population of France was therefore unable to grow, and there was a demographic standstill, as the surplus of births over deaths was wiped out by the disease. Today, we know that epidemics were the main cause of death in the Middle Ages.
The image shows a black and white graph illustrating baptism and burial rates over what appears to be a period from 1690 to 1790, with a logarithmic scale on the y-axis to measure frequencies. The upper curve, marked by a solid black line and shaded areas, indicates baptisms, while the lower curve, represented by a dotted black line, represents burials. The graph shows periods when baptisms exceed burials, indicated by the areas where the upper curve is above the lower curve. These periods represent natural population growth, where the number of births exceeds the number of deaths. Conversely, there are times when burials outnumber baptisms, demonstrating a mortality rate higher than the birth rate, which is represented by the areas where the burials curve rises above the baptisms curve. The sharp fluctuations in the graph illustrate periods when deaths exceeded births, with significant peaks suggesting mass mortality events, such as epidemics, famines or wars. Line A, which appears to be a trend line or moving average, helps to visualise the general trend in the excess of deaths over births over this century-long period. The period covered by this graph corresponds to tumultuous moments in European history, marked by significant social, political and environmental changes, which had a profound impact on the demography of the time.
The image shows a conceptual diagram depicting the complex interactions within a demographic crisis. The main factors triggering this crisis are represented by three large rectangles that stand out in the centre of the diagram: crop failure, war and epidemic. These central events are interconnected and their impacts extend across a range of socio-economic and demographic phenomena. A poor harvest is a catalyst, causing prices to rise and food shortages, triggering distress migration. War causes panic and worsens the situation through similar migrations, while epidemics directly increase mortality while also affecting birth rates and marriage rates. These major crises influence various aspects of demographic life. For example, rising prices and famine lead to economic hardship, which has repercussions on marriage and reproduction patterns, illustrated by a fall in the marriage rate and a drop in the birth rate. In addition, epidemics, often exacerbated by famine and population movements due to war, could lead to a significant increase in mortality. The diagram shows the direct effects with solid lines and the secondary effects with dotted lines, showing a hierarchy in the impact of these different events. The diagram as a whole highlights the cascade of effects triggered by crises, demonstrating how a poor harvest can trigger a series of events that spread far beyond its immediate consequences, provoking wars, migrations and facilitating the spread of epidemics, thereby contributing to an increase in mortality and a stagnation or decline in the population.
Homeostasis by controlling population growth
The concept of homeostasis
Homeostasis is a fundamental principle that applies to many biological and ecological systems, including human populations and their interaction with the environment. It is the ability of a system to maintain a stable internal condition despite external changes. In the context of the Ancien Régime, where technology and the means of acting on the environment were limited, populations had to adapt continuously to maintain this dynamic balance with the available resources. Crises such as famines, epidemics and wars tested the resilience of this balance. However, even in the face of these disruptions, communities strove to re-establish the balance through various survival and adaptation strategies. Farmers, in particular, played an essential role in maintaining demographic homeostasis. They were the most directly affected by crop failure or climate change, but they were also the first to respond to these challenges. Through their empirical knowledge of natural cycles and their ability to adjust their farming practices, they were able to mitigate the impact of these crises. For example, they could alternate crops, store reserves for difficult years, or adapt their diet to cope with food shortages. In addition, rural communities often had systems of solidarity and mutual aid that enabled them to spread risk and help the most vulnerable members in the event of a crisis. This type of social resilience is another aspect of homeostasis, where the cohesion and organisation of society help to maintain demographic and social equilibrium. Homeostasis, in this context, is therefore less a question of active control over the environment than of adaptive responses that enable populations to survive and recover from disturbances, continuing the cycle of stability and change.
Before the advances of modern medicine and the industrial revolution, human populations were heavily influenced by the principles of homeostasis, which regulate the balance between available resources and the number of people who depend on them. Societies had to find ways of adapting to the limitations of their environment in order to survive. Agricultural techniques such as biennial and triennial crop rotation were homeostatic responses to the challenges of food production. These methods allowed soil fertility to be rested and regenerated by alternating crops and fallow periods, thus helping to prevent land exhaustion and maintain a level of production that could meet the needs of the population. Since food resources could not be significantly increased before the technical and agricultural innovations of the industrial revolution, demographic regulation was often achieved through social and cultural mechanisms. For example, the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy limited population growth by shortening women's fertility period and thus lowering the birth rate. Natural selection also played a role in population dynamics. Epidemics, such as the plague, and famines often eliminated the most vulnerable individuals, leaving behind a population that had either natural resistance or social practices that contributed to survival. This homeostatic dynamism reflects the capacity of biological and social systems to absorb disturbances and return to a state of equilibrium, although this equilibrium may be at a different level from that prior to the disturbance. As in ecosystems, where a fire can destroy a forest but is followed by regeneration, human societies have developed mechanisms to manage and overcome crises.
Long-term micro and macro stability
The historical perception of people's powerlessness in the face of major crises, particularly death and disease, has long been influenced by the apparent lack of means to understand and control these events. Indeed, before the modern era and the rise of scientific medicine, the exact causes of many illnesses and deaths often remained mysterious. As a result, medieval and pre-modern societies relied heavily on religion, superstition and traditional remedies to try and cope with these crises. However, this vision of complete passivity has been challenged by more recent historical research. It is now recognised that even in the face of seemingly uncontrollable forces, such as plague epidemics or famines, the populations of the time were not entirely resigned. Peasants and other social classes developed strategies to mitigate the impact of crises. For example, they adopted innovative farming practices, introduced quarantine measures, or even migrated to regions less affected by famine or disease. The measures taken could also be community-based, such as organising charity to support those most affected by the crisis. In addition, social and family structures could offer a degree of resilience, by sharing resources and supporting the most vulnerable members. After the Second World War, the situation changed radically with the establishment of social security systems in many countries, the advent of modern healthcare and increased access to information, which led to better understanding and prevention of public health crises. Security of life has improved as a result of these developments, considerably reducing the feeling of powerlessness in the face of illness and death.
Social regulations: the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy
Implementation: 16th century - 18th century
During the period from the Middle Ages to the end of the pre-industrial period, European populations implemented a demographic regulation strategy known as the European system of late marriage and permanent celibacy. Historical data reveals that this practice led to a relatively high age at marriage and substantial rates of celibacy, particularly among women. For example, historians have documented that during the sixteenth century, the average age at first marriage for women ranged from 19 to 22, while by the eighteenth century this age had risen to between 25 and 27 in many regions. These figures show a significant departure from the norms of medieval times, and contrast sharply with other parts of the world where the age at marriage was much lower and celibacy less common. The percentage of women who never married was also notable. Estimates suggest that between the 16th and 18th centuries, between 10% and 15% of women remained single throughout their lives. This rate of celibacy contributed to a natural limitation in population size, which was particularly crucial in an economy where land was the main source of wealth and subsistence. This system of marriage and birth rate was probably influenced by economic and social factors. With land unable to support a rapidly growing population, late marriage and permanent celibacy served as a population control mechanism. In addition, with inheritance systems tending towards the equal division of land, having fewer children meant avoiding excessive division of land, which could have led to an economic decline in peasant families.
The Saint Petersburg - Trieste line
The system of late marriage and permanent celibacy was characteristic of certain parts of Europe, particularly in the western and northern regions. The distinction between Western and Eastern Europe in terms of marriage practices was marked by considerable social and economic differences. In the West, where this system was in force, an imaginary line stretching from St Petersburg to Trieste marked the border of this demographic model. Peasants and families in the West often owned their land or had significant rights to it, and inheritance passed through the family line. These conditions favoured the implementation of a birth limitation strategy to preserve the integrity and viability of family farms. Families sought to avoid the fragmentation of land across generations, which could have weakened their economic position. To the east of this line, however, and particularly in areas subject to serfdom, the system was different. Peasants in Eastern Europe were often serfs, tied to their lord's land and with no property to pass on. In this context, there was no immediate economic pressure to limit family size through late marriage or celibacy. Matrimonial practices were more universal and marriages were often arranged for social and economic reasons, without the direct consideration of a strategy to preserve family land. This dichotomy between East and West reflects the diversity of socio-economic structures in Europe prior to the major upheavals of the Industrial Revolution, which would ultimately transform marriage systems and family structures across the continent.
Les effets démographiques
La période de fertilité d'une femme, souvent estimée entre 15 et 49 ans, est cruciale pour la compréhension de la dynamique démographique historique. Dans une société où l'âge moyen au mariage pour les femmes augmente, comme ce fut le cas en Europe de l'Ouest entre le XVIe et le XVIIIe siècle, les implications sur la fertilité globale sont importantes. Lorsque l'âge au mariage passe de 20 à 25 ans, les femmes entament leur vie reproductive plus tard, réduisant ainsi le nombre d'années pendant lesquelles elles sont susceptibles de concevoir. Les années immédiatement après la puberté sont souvent les plus fertiles, et retarder le mariage de cinq ans peut retirer plusieurs des années les plus fertiles de la vie d'une femme. Cela pourrait résulter en une baisse du nombre moyen d'enfants par femme, car il y aurait moins d'opportunités de grossesse au cours de sa vie reproductive. Si l'on considère qu'une femme peut avoir en moyenne un enfant tous les deux ans après le mariage, en supprimant cinq années de fertilité potentiellement haute, cela pourrait équivaloir à la réduction de la naissance de deux à trois enfants par femme. Cette diminution aurait un impact significatif sur la croissance démographique globale d'une population. En effet, cette pratique de mariage tardif et de limitation des naissances n'était pas due à une meilleure compréhension de la biologie de la reproduction ou à des mesures de contraception, mais plutôt à une réponse socio-économique aux conditions de vie. En limitant le nombre de leurs enfants, les familles pouvaient mieux allouer leurs ressources limitées, éviter la subdivision excessive des terres et préserver le bien-être économique des générations suivantes. Ce phénomène a contribué à une forme de régulation naturelle de la population avant l'avènement de la planification familiale moderne.
Mariage tardif et célibat définitif
Le système de régulation de la natalité en Europe occidentale, notamment du XVIe au XVIIIe siècle, reposait en grande partie sur des normes sociales et religieuses qui décourageaient la procréation hors du cadre du mariage. Dans ce contexte, un nombre significatif de femmes ne se mariaient pas, restant célibataires ou devenant veuves sans se remarier. Si l'on prend en compte que, dans certaines régions, jusqu'à 50% des femmes pouvaient être dans cette situation à un moment donné, l'impact sur les taux de natalité globaux serait considérable. La non-mariée et la veuvage signifiaient, pour la plupart des femmes de cette époque, qu'elles n'avaient pas d'enfants légitimes, en partie à cause des strictes conventions sociales et des enseignements de l'Église catholique qui promouvait la chasteté hors du mariage. Les mariages tardifs étaient encouragés et les relations sexuelles hors mariage étaient fortement condamnées, réduisant ainsi la probabilité de naissances hors mariage. Les naissances illégitimes étaient rares, avec des estimations autour de 2% à 3%. Ceci suggère une conformité relativement élevée aux normes sociales et religieuses, ainsi qu'un contrôle efficace de la sexualité et de la reproduction hors des liens du mariage. Cette dynamique sociale a donc eu pour effet de réduire de manière significative la fécondité globale, avec une réduction estimée jusqu'à 30%. Cela a joué un rôle essentiel dans la régulation démographique de l'époque, assurant un équilibre entre la population et les ressources disponibles dans un contexte où il y avait peu de moyens d'augmenter la production de ressources environnementales. Ainsi, les structures sociales et les normes culturelles ont servi de mécanisme de contrôle de la population, maintenant la stabilité démographique en l'absence de méthodes contraceptives modernes ou d'interventions médicales pour réguler la natalité.
La structure sociale et économique de l'Europe pré-industrielle avait une influence directe sur les pratiques matrimoniales. Le concept de "mariage égal ménage" était fortement ancré dans les mentalités, signifiant qu'un mariage n'était pas seulement l'union de deux personnes mais également la formation d'un nouveau foyer autonome. Cela impliquait la nécessité d'avoir un espace de vie propre, souvent sous la forme d'une ferme ou d'une maison, où le couple pouvait s'installer et vivre de manière indépendante. Cette nécessité d'obtenir une "niche" pour vivre limitait le nombre de mariages possibles à un moment donné. Les opportunités de mariage étaient donc étroitement liées à la disponibilité du logement, qui dans les sociétés agricoles dépendait de la transmission de propriété, telle que les fermes, souvent de génération en génération. La croissance démographique était limitée par la quantité fixe de terres et de fermes, qui ne s'accroissait pas au même rythme que la population. En conséquence, les jeunes couples devaient attendre qu'une propriété se libère, soit par le décès des occupants précédents, soit lorsque ceux-ci étaient prêts à céder leur place, souvent à leurs enfants ou à d'autres membres de la famille. Cela contribuait à retarder l'âge au mariage car les jeunes gens, en particulier les hommes qui étaient souvent attendus pour prendre en charge une ferme, devaient attendre d'avoir les moyens économiques de soutenir un ménage avant de se marier. En retardant le mariage, les périodes de fécondité des femmes étaient également raccourcies, ce qui contribuait à une baisse de la natalité globale. Ainsi, les limitations économiques et les contraintes de logement jouaient un rôle déterminant dans les stratégies matrimoniales et démographiques, favorisant l'émergence du modèle européen du mariage tardif et du ménage nucléaire, qui a eu un impact profond sur les structures sociales et les dynamiques de population en Europe jusqu'à la modernisation et l'urbanisation qui ont accompagné la révolution industrielle.
Le rôle des relations familiales et des attentes envers les enfants était un facteur important dans les stratégies matrimoniales et démographiques des sociétés pré-industrielles européennes. Dans un contexte où les systèmes de retraite et de soins pour les personnes âgées étaient inexistants, les parents dépendaient de leurs enfants pour obtenir un soutien dans leur vieillesse. Cela se traduisait souvent par la nécessité pour au moins un enfant de rester célibataire pour s'occuper de ses parents. Typiquement, dans une famille avec plusieurs enfants, il n'était pas rare qu'un accord tacite ou explicite désigne une des filles pour rester à la maison et prendre soin de ses parents. Ce rôle était souvent assumé par une fille, en partie parce que les fils étaient attendus pour travailler la terre, générer des revenus et perpétuer la lignée familiale. Les filles célibataires avaient aussi moins d'opportunités économiques et sociales hors du cadre familial, les rendant plus disponibles pour prendre soin de leurs parents. Cette pratique du célibat définitif comme forme de "sacrifice" familial avait plusieurs conséquences. D'un côté, elle assurait un certain soutien pour la génération plus âgée, mais de l'autre, elle réduisait le nombre de mariages et par conséquent, la natalité. Cela fonctionnait comme un mécanisme de régulation démographique naturel au sein de la communauté, contribuant ainsi à l'équilibre entre la population et les ressources disponibles. Ces dynamiques soulignent la complexité des liens entre structure familiale, économie, et démographie dans l'Europe pré-industrielle, et comment les choix personnels étaient souvent façonnés par des nécessités économiques et des devoirs familiaux.
L'homéostasie démographique, dans le contexte des sociétés pré-industrielles, reflète un processus de régulation naturelle de la population en réponse à des événements extérieurs. Lorsque ces sociétés étaient frappées par des crises de mortalité, telles que des épidémies, des famines ou des conflits, la population diminuait considérablement. Ces crises avaient pour conséquence indirecte de libérer des "niches" économiques et sociales, telles que des fermes, des emplois ou des rôles dans la communauté, qui étaient auparavant occupées par ceux qui sont décédés. Cela créait de nouvelles opportunités pour les générations survivantes. Les jeunes couples pouvaient se marier plus tôt parce qu'il y avait moins de concurrence pour les ressources et l'espace. Comme les mariages précoces sont généralement associés à une période de fertilité plus longue et donc à un nombre potentiellement plus élevé d'enfants, la population pouvait ainsi rebondir relativement rapidement après une crise. La fertilité accrue des couples mariés jeunes compensait les pertes démographiques subies pendant la crise, ce qui permettait à la population de retourner vers un état d'équilibre, selon les principes de l'homéostasie. Ce cycle de crise et de récupération démontre la résilience des populations humaines et leur capacité à s'adapter aux conditions changeantes, bien que souvent au prix de pertes humaines considérables. C'est une démonstration du concept de l'homéostasie appliqué à la démographie, où après une perturbation extérieure majeure, les systèmes sociaux et économiques inhérents à ces communautés tendaient à ramener la population à un niveau soutenable par les ressources disponibles et les structures sociales en place.
Nuances dans le système européen : les trois Suisses
Les pratiques matrimoniales et successorales variées en Suisse reflètent la manière dont les sociétés traditionnelles s'adaptaient aux contraintes économiques et environnementales. Dans le centre de la Suisse, le système matrimonial était influencé par des réglementations strictes qui restreignaient l'accès au mariage, privilégiant ainsi les familles aisées. Cette restriction était souvent accompagnée d'une transmission des terres selon un modèle inégalitaire, généralement au profit de l'aîné des fils. Cette dynamique avait des implications significatives pour les enfants non héritiers, qui étaient contraints de chercher des moyens de subsistance en dehors de leur lieu de naissance. Cette contrainte sur le mariage et l'héritage a eu pour effet de réguler la population locale, poussant à une émigration qui contribuait à l'équilibre démographique de la région. Les enfants non héritiers, en quittant la région pour chercher fortune ailleurs, permettaient d'éviter une surpopulation qui aurait pu résulter d'une division trop fragmentée des terres agricoles, préservant ainsi l'économie rurale et la stabilité sociale de leur communauté d'origine.
Dans le Valais, la situation matrimoniale et successorale contrastait nettement avec celle du centre de la Suisse. Sans restrictions légales sur le mariage, les individus pouvaient se marier plus librement, indépendamment de leur statut économique. Lorsqu'il s'agissait de l'héritage, la tradition du Valais favorisait une répartition égalitaire des biens. Les frères qui ne devenaient pas propriétaires étaient souvent indemnisés, un arrangement qui leur permettait de démarrer leur propre vie ailleurs, souvent par l'émigration. Ces pratiques successorales égalitaires menaient régulièrement à des accords entre les frères pour maintenir les terres agricoles intactes au sein de la famille, choisissant volontairement un seul héritier pour la gestion des terres et la continuation de l'entreprise familiale. Ce faisant, ils s'assuraient que les exploitations restaient viables et que la propriété foncière ne devenait pas trop morcelée pour rester productive. En même temps, cela contribuait également à un équilibre démographique, car les frères qui partaient cherchaient des opportunités en dehors du Valais, réduisant ainsi la pression sur les ressources locales.
En Suisse italienne, la dynamique sociale et démographique était fortement impactée par la mobilité professionnelle des hommes. Un grand nombre d'hommes quittaient leur domicile pour des périodes prolongées, allant de quelques mois à plusieurs années, pour trouver du travail ailleurs. Cette migration de travailleur, souvent saisonnière, avait pour conséquence un déséquilibre notable sur le marché matrimonial local, réduisant de facto le nombre de mariages possibles en raison de l'absence prolongée des hommes. Cette absence réduisait les occasions pour de nouvelles familles de se former, limitant ainsi le taux de natalité. En outre, les conventions sociales et les valeurs religieuses prédominantes maintenaient les femmes dans des rôles traditionnels et encourageaient la fidélité conjugale. Dans un tel contexte, les femmes avaient peu d'opportunités ou de tolérance sociale pour avoir des enfants en dehors du mariage. Ainsi, les normes culturelles combinées à l'absence des hommes jouaient un rôle clé dans le maintien d'un certain équilibre démographique, limitant l'accroissement naturel de la population en Suisse italienne.
Ces diverses pratiques illustrent comment la régulation de la croissance démographique pouvait être indirectement orchestrée par des mécanismes sociaux, économiques et culturels. Ils permettaient de gérer la taille de la population selon les capacités de l'environnement et des ressources, assurant la pérennité des structures familiales et la stabilité économique des communautés.
Un retour sur la mort omniprésente
La structure traditionnelle d'une famille complète implique un engagement de long terme, où le couple reste uni de leur mariage jusqu'à la fin de la période de fécondité de la femme, généralement autour de l'âge de 50 ans. Si cette continuité est maintenue sans interruption, la théorie suggère qu'une femme pourrait avoir sept enfants en moyenne au cours de sa vie. Cependant, cette situation idéale est souvent impactée par des perturbations telles que la mortalité prématurée de l'un des conjoints. La mort prématurée d'un conjoint, que ce soit le mari ou la femme, avant que la femme n'atteigne l'âge de 50 ans, peut réduire significativement le nombre d'enfants que le couple aurait pu avoir. De telles ruptures familiales sont courantes en raison des conditions de santé, des maladies, des accidents ou d'autres facteurs de risque liés à l'époque et au contexte social et économique. Lorsque l'on prend en compte ces décès prématurés et leurs effets sur la structure familiale, le nombre moyen d'enfants par famille tend à diminuer, avec une moyenne de quatre à cinq enfants par famille. Cette réduction est également un reflet des défis de la vie familiale et des taux de mortalité de l'époque, qui influençaient fortement la démographie et la taille des ménages.
L'enfance, à travers les siècles, a toujours été une période particulièrement vulnérable pour la survie humaine, et cela était encore plus marqué dans le contexte pré-moderne où les connaissances médicales et les conditions de vie étaient loin d'être optimales. À cette époque, un nombre considérable d'enfants, soit entre 20% et 30%, ne survivaient pas à leur première année de vie. En outre, seulement la moitié des enfants nés arrivaient à l'âge de quinze ans. Cela implique qu'un couple moyen ne produisait que deux à deux et demi enfants qui atteignaient l'âge adulte, ce qui n'était guère suffisant pour plus qu'un simple remplacement de la population. En conséquence, la croissance démographique restait stagnante. Cette précarité de l'existence et la familiarité avec la mort façonnaient profondément la psyché et les pratiques sociales de l'époque. Les populations développèrent des mécanismes d'homéostasie, des stratégies pour maintenir l'équilibre démographique en dépit des incertitudes de la vie. Parallèlement, la mort était tellement omniprésente qu'elle était intégrée dans la vie quotidienne. L'origine du terme "caveau" témoigne de cette intégration; il se réfère à la pratique consistant à enterrer les membres de la famille dans la cave de la maison, souvent par manque d'espace dans les cimetières. Ce rapport à la mort est frappant lorsqu'on considère l'histoire de Paris au XVIIIème siècle. Pour des raisons de santé publique, la ville a entrepris de vider ses cimetières surpeuplés situés à l'intérieur de ses murs. Lors de cette opération, les restes de plus de 1,6 million d'individus furent exhumés et transférés dans les catacombes. Cette mesure radicale souligne à quel point la mort était courante et combien peu de place elle laissait, au sens littéral comme figuré, dans la société de l'époque. La mort n'était pas une étrangère, mais une voisine familière avec laquelle il fallait cohabiter.
L'acceptation et la familiarité avec la mort dans la société pré-moderne se manifestent également à travers l'existence de guides et de manuels enseignant comment mourir de manière appropriée, souvent sous l'intitulé d'“Ars Moriendi” ou l'art de bien mourir. Ces textes étaient répandus en Europe dès le Moyen Âge, offrant des conseils pour mourir en état de grâce, conformément aux enseignements chrétiens. Ces manuels offraient des instructions sur la façon de faire face aux tentations spirituelles qui pourraient survenir à l'approche de la mort, et comment les surmonter afin d'assurer le salut de l'âme. Ils traitaient également de l'importance de recevoir les sacrements, de faire la paix avec Dieu et les hommes, et de laisser derrière soi des instructions pour le règlement de ses affaires et la répartition de ses biens. Dans ce contexte, la mort n'était pas seulement une fin mais aussi un passage critique qui nécessitait préparation et réflexion. Même dans les moments les plus sombres, comme lorsqu'une personne était condamnée à mort, cette culture de la mort offrait une forme de consolation paradoxale: le condamné avait, contrairement à beaucoup d'autres qui mouraient subitement ou sans avertissement, la possibilité de se préparer à son dernier moment, de se repentir de ses péchés et de partir en paix avec sa conscience. Cela reflétait une perception très différente de la mort de celle que nous avons aujourd'hui, où la mort subite est souvent considérée comme la plus cruelle, tandis que dans ces temps plus anciens, une telle mort sans préparation était perçue comme une tragédie pour l'âme.
Annexes
- Carbonnier-Burkard Marianne. Les manuels réformés de préparation à la mort. In: Revue de l'histoire des religions, tome 217 n°3, 2000. La prière dans le christianisme moderne. pp. 363-380. url :/web/revues/home/prescript/article/rhr_0035-1423_2000_num_217_3_103