Modification de National Accounts and Balance of Payments

{{Infobox Lecture
 | image = 
 | image_caption = 
 | cours = [[International Economy]]
 | faculté = 
 | département = 
 | professeurs = 
*[[Federica Sbergami|Sbergami, Federica]]<ref>[https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/faculty/all/federica-sbergami/ Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Genève]</ref><ref>[https://www.unine.ch/irene/home/equipe/federica_sbergami.html Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Neuchâtel]</ref><ref>[https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/14836393_Federica_Sbergami Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur Research Gate]</ref>
*[[Céline Carrère]]<ref>[https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/faculty/all/celine-carrere/ Céline Carrère] - [https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/ Faculté d'économie et de management] - [https://www.unige.ch/ UNIGE]</ref><ref>[https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BLP5coMAAAAJ&hl=en Céline Carrère - Google Scholar Citations]</ref><ref>[https://www.unige.ch/rectorat/en/home/directrice-celine-carrere/ Director Céline Carrère] - [https://www.unige.ch/rectorat/en/home/ Rectorat] - [https://www.unige.ch/ UNIGE]</ref><ref>[https://www.sciencespo.fr/liepp/fr/users/celine-carrere Céline Carrère] | [https://www.sciencespo.fr/ Sciences Po] - [https://www.sciencespo.fr/liepp/fr Le Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d'Evaluation des Politiques Publiques (LIEPP)]</ref><ref>[https://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pca535.htm Céline Carrere] - [https://econpapers.repec.org/ EconPapers]</ref><ref>[https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/10069980_Celine_Carrere Céline Carrère's research works] - [https://www.researchgate.net/ ResearchGate]</ref>
 | enregistrement = 
 | lectures = 
* [[Ricardo's model: productivity differences as a determinant of trade]]
* [[The Heckscher-Ohlin model: differences in factor endowments as a determinant of trade]]
* [[Economies of scale as a determinant of trade: beyond comparative advantage]]
* [[Trade policy instruments]]
* [[Multilateral trade agreements]]
* [[Preferential Trade Agreements]]
* [[The Free Trade Challenge]]
* [[International Macroeconomics: Issues and Overview]]
* [[National Accounts and Balance of Payments]]
* [[Exchange rates and the foreign exchange market]]
* [[Short-term exchange rates: the asset-based approach]]
* [[Long-term exchange rates: the monetary approach]]
* [[Domestic product and short-term exchange rates]]
* [[Floating exchange rates]]
* [[Fixed exchange rates and intervention on the foreign exchange market]]
}}

What is a country's external position?

How does it relate to GDP or national savings?

What are the different items in the balance of payments? 

How can these different items be interpreted correctly?

{{Translations
| fr = Comptes nationaux et balance des paiements
| es = 
}}

= National accounts reminders =

== GDP and NI ==

Gross domestic product GDP (territorial perspective) :
:::::<math>GDP \equiv C + I + G + EXP - IMP</math> [1]

Gross National Income (GNI) and National Income (NI) (residency perspective) :

[[File:économie internationale PIB et RN 1.png|thumb|center|NB: PIB et RNB liés, mais, pays débiteurs (créditeurs) → PIB > (<) RNB.]]

== GDP and its components ==

GDP = sum of value added of all goods and services produced in the country.

[[File:économie internationale PIB et ses composantes 1.png|thumb|center|]]

== GDP and GNI: an example ==

As we have just seen, GDP and GNI do not coincide. In particular, for a debtor country (net importer of capital or labour services) the <math>GDP > GNI</math> → Example: Ireland

[[File:économie internationale PIB et RN exemple 1.png|thumb|center|NFIA = net factor income from abroad (= SBRF).]]

== Absorption and current account balance ==

Simplification in the model: capital depreciation, taxes and subsidies assumed to be negligible --> "<math>Y</math>" is both national product and national income :
:::::<math>Y \equiv C + I + G + EXP - IMP + SBRF + SBTC (\cong RN)</math>

Condensed notation :
:::::<math>Y \equiv A + CC</math> [2]

where:
:::::<math>A \equiv C + I + G</math> : absorption (dépense intérieure)
:::::<math>CC \equiv EXP - IMP + SBRF + SBTC</math> : solde balance courante (ou compte courant)
:::::<math>\Leftrightarrow CC \equiv Y - A \equiv \Delta AEN</math> (flux)

NB: if <math>A > Y</math> → current account deficit financed by net debt (<math>NEA</math>↓)

where:
:::::<math>NEA \equiv net\ foreign\ assets</math> (or rest of the world, RW) [3]
:::::<math>NEA \equiv receivables\ from\ RW - liabilities\ to\ RW</math>

== Savings, government deficit and current account ==

In an open economy, the current account is the difference between income and expenditure (or absorption) and reflects the change in net foreign assets over the period = the financing capacity of the economy.

Allocation of income:
:::::<math>Y \equiv C + S^P + T</math> (<math>S^P</math> = private saving, <math>T</math> = taxes) [4]

Combined with <math>Y \equiv C + I + G + CC</math> we get:
:::::<math>S^P +(T-G) \equiv I + CC</math> [5]

In an open economy, savings lead either to an increase in the capital stock or to an increase in NEAs.

Or, as <math>S = S^P + S^g</math> and <math>S^g = T - G</math> :
:::::<math>S^P \equiv I + CC - S^g</math> [5']

The surplus of private savings over I is used to finance the government deficit and the current account. Put differently, domestic investment can be financed by savings or by a current account deficit.

== Current account deficit and net external debt ==

[[File:économie internationale déficit courant et dette extérieure nette 1.png|thumb|center|]]

== Implications of identities ==

An open economy can save either by developing its capital stock (as in a closed economy) or by acquiring external assets (example of intertemporal trade: the NZ building a new hydropower plant).

Equation [5] is a fundamental accounting identity, but not an economic model → beware of misinterpretation. Example: KO case study 13.1: the case of 'twin deficits'. USA early 1980s: expansive fiscal policy → public deficit → CC deficit. EU in the 1990s: the reduction of EU deficits - to meet the Maastricht criteria - did not result in a CC surplus. Why not? Because private savings decreased almost as much as the increase in public savings (possible explanation: Ricardian equivalence). → No automatism → Need for an economic model that EXPLAINS the links between the variables involved in identity.

= The balance of payments =

== General principles ==

All international transactions are recorded in the balance of payments.

Any transaction that leads to foreign exchange earnings from abroad (exports of goods or assets) is recorded with a positive sign indicating a credit (+).
:→ supply of foreign currency (or demand for domestic currency).

Any transaction that leads to a payment in foreign currency abroad (import of goods or import of assets) is accounted for with a negative sign indicating a debit (-)
:→ demand for foreign currency (or supply of domestic currency).
:→ If <math>H</math> is Switzerland, any transaction leading to a demand (offer) of CHF is recorded as a credit (debit).

== Types of transactions ==
Two kinds of transactions (but three accounts!) :
*'''Purchase or sale of goods and services'''. Transactions recorded in the current account (CC). An import purchase from a resident in <math>H</math> gives rise to a debit of the CC of <math>H</math> (and a credit of the CC of <math>F</math>), as payment in foreign currency in return.
*'''Purchase or sale of assets'''. Transactions recorded in the financial account (CF) or in the capital account (CK). For example, a resident of H buys shares in a company of <math>F</math> (increase in foreign assets held by residents of <math>H</math>). The CF of <math>H</math> is debited because there is demand for currency and credit in the CF of <math>F</math>.

== Balance of payments: simplified structure ==

[[File:économie internationale balance des paiements structure simplifiée 1.png|thumb|center|]]

Interpretation: CC indicates the net financing capacity of the economy relative to the RDM (e.g. a surplus of 100), and CK,CF indicate how this capacity materializes (e.g. a debt reduction of 20 = ↘ of domestic assets held by RDM and a debt increase of 80 = of foreign assets held by residents) => the balance of payments is always in equilibrium.

== The principle of double writing ==

Each international transaction automatically enters the PB twice, once as a debit, once as a credit (again, the balance of payments is always in balance).

Ex. 1: The company PRECISA from Geneva sells watch cases to its French customer ARTHUS from Besançon. ARTHUS pays the customer:
:(i) by liquidating its cash voucher position at the BCG.
:(ii) by drawing a cheque on its Belfort CA account. PRECISA takes the opportunity to increase the French securities it already holds with the CA.

[[File:économie internationale principe de double écriture 1.png|thumb|center|]]

Ex. 2: Fiduciary BONCOMPTE of Geneva imports computer equipment produced by the company OLIVETTO of Turin. It does so:
:(i) by selling all its FIAT shares deposited in Banco M of Turin.
:(ii) by obtaining a loan from Banco M of Turin.

[[File:économie internationale principe de double écriture 2.png|thumb|center|]]

== Balance of payments : Decomposition ==

[[File:économie internationale balance des paiements décomposition 1.png|thumb|center|]]

== Trade balance (labour and capital income) ==

Debit: Income from labour and capital paid abroad

Credit: Labour and capital income received from abroad

[[File:économie internationale la balance commerciale (revenus du travail et des capitaux) 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BNS.]]

== Factor income balance: details ==

Income from work:
*Payments to foreign cross-border commuters working in Switzerland;
*Salaries received by persons working for international organisations in Switzerland.

Income from capital:
*Income from securities (shares, bonds);
*Income from direct investments;
*Income from investments of the National Bank and the Confederation.

== Balance of current transfers ==

Debit: Non-counterparty payments made abroad

Credit: Non-counterparty payments received from abroad

[[File:économie internationale la balance des transferts courants 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BNS.]]

== Current transfers balance: details ==

Current transfers from the private sector:
*transfers from Swiss emigrants;
*Transfers from foreign insurance institutions;
*Transfers from foreign immigrants.

Current transfers from the public sector:
*Social insurance contributions by Swiss abroad;
*State revenue from withholding tax;
*Social insurance benefits paid abroad;
*contributions to international organisations.

== Balance of capital transactions ==

Debit: Payments related to the movement of capital from the country to abroad (purchase of a foreign security)

Credit: Payments related to the movement of capital from abroad into the country (sale of a domestic security)

Capital account (CK) = any asset transaction not listed in the CF

Financial Account (FA) = private transactions, (FC) and official reserves (or "reserve assets", RES)

== Balance of capital transactions ==

[[File:économie internationale la balance des en capital 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BNS.]]

== Capital account balance: detail ==

Capital account (CK) = any asset transactions not listed in the CF. 
*Capital transfers = transfer of ownership without consideration. Two types: (i) debt forgiveness (= cancellation) and (ii) other transfers (e.g. transfers of migrants' property).
*Acquisitions/disposals of intangible assets such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, etc.

Financial account (FC). Composed of five categories:
*Direct investment = when the investor has a lasting interest and seeks to influence the management of the "invested" company (holding more than 10% of the voting rights or failing that of the share capital).
*Portfolio investment = non-temporary transactions in marketable securities (shares, bonds).
*Financial derivatives = transactions on options and futures markets.
*Other investments = trade credits, loans and miscellaneous deposits. 
*Reserve assets = transactions in international reserves held by the Central Bank.

== Net change in official reserves ==
Transactions on international reserves (foreign exchange, gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), reserve position with the IMF) held by the Central Bank.

Debit: An increase in reserves

Credit: A decrease in reserves 

A surplus on the balance of accounts increases official gold and foreign exchange reserves; a deficit decreases them.

[[File:économie internationale variation nette des réserves officielles 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BNS.]]

Algebraically adding the balance of the balance of accounts and the net change in official reserves gives the balance of the balance of payments equal to zero.

== Residual item: Errors and omissions ==

All transactions are theoretically recorded on both the revenue and expenditure sides, so the two totals should be equal. In practice, this is not the case.

The residual item is the difference between the total "revenue" and the total "expenditure".

This difference is due to gaps and errors in the statistical records.

[[File:économie internationale poste résiduel erreurs et omissions 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BNS.]]

== Example: Euro zone ==

[[File:économie internationale comptes nationaux et balance des paiements exemple zone euro 1.png|thumb|center|Source : BCE.]]

== Current account and movement of capital ==
Any transaction in the current account (CC) is settled by a transaction in the capital movements balance (CF) = change in the country's stock of assets and liabilities vis-à-vis other countries.

The reverse is not necessarily correct: a transaction originating in the capital account may have its counterpart in the capital account. In this case, it does not change the country's net financial debit or credit position vis-à-vis the ROW.

Example: direct investment abroad financed by foreign currency borrowing.
*Investment transaction = ↗ assets abroad (export of capital = debit)
*Currency borrowing = ↗ liabilities to foreign countries (capital import = credit)

== Remarks ==

Importance de la balance de base (BB, aussi appelée balance des règlements officiels ou encore balance des comptes): dans les régimes de change fixe, elle indique la capacité de la Banque Centrale à honorer ses engagements, puisqu’un déficit de la balance de base signifie une baisse des réserves officielles.

H ne peut pas accuser simultanément F "d'envahir son marché intérieur" (CC < 0) et "de capturer toute son épargne" (<math>CF < 0</math>).

En principe : le solde agrégé de tous les CC sur le plan mondial devrait être égal à zéro. Or il est négatif! "Mystère du surplus manquant"

Quel est le niveau optimal de CC? Un déficit important et permanent crée des problèmes de crédibilité (détériore la position extérieure nette du pays, cf. cas des USA, le plus grand pays débiteur mondial, KO encadré 13.2). Un surplus important et permanent crée des tensions avec les partenaires commerciaux qui se plaignent de leurs déficits.

== Pour résumer ==

Richesse :
:::::<math>total\ des\ actifs - total\ des\ passifs\ engagements</math>
(montants possédés) - (montants dus)
*Chaque fois qu’une nation épargne, c.-à-d. dégage un excédent de son compte courant, sa richesse augmente.
*Chaque fois qu’une nation emprunte, c.-à-d. dégage un déficit de son compte courant, sa richesse diminue.

Richesse externe (ou position extérieure) :
:::::<math>total\ des\ actifs\ etrangers\ detenus - total\ des\ actifs\ nationaux\ detenus\ par\ l'etranger</math>
*Une position extérieure positive signifie que le pays est créditeur. 
*Une position extérieure négative signifie que le pays est débiteur.

== Déficits et surplus globaux ==

Ces dernières années, on trouve des pays qui ont des très grands surplus (pays émergents + pays exportateurs de pétrole) et des pays avec des très grands déficits (USA en tête + un certain nombre de pays développés).

[[File:économie internationale comptes nationaux et balance des paiements déficits et surplus globaux 1.png|thumb|center|Source: Feenstra and Taylor, 2008.]]

== Pays débiteurs et pays créditeurs ==

[[File:économie internationale comptes nationaux et balance des paiements pays débiteurs et pays créditeurs 1.png|thumb|right|Source: Feenstra and Taylor, 2008.]]

Les États-Unis et les autres pays développés financent leur déficit courant en vendant des titres qui sont achetés par les pays qui ont
un surplus commercial → changement dans la propriété des titres → variation des avoirs nets sur le RDM

Flux de capitaux des pays émergents vers les pays développés: pas en ligne avec la théorie du commerce intertemporel (cf. cours de commerce).

La position nette d’un pays dépend aussi des variations de la valeur des actifs .

Risque de défaut: depuis 1980, 14 pays n’ont pas payé leur dette à cause de crises sur le marché des changes → country risk ↑

== Le cas de l'Argentine ==

[[File:économie internationale comptes nationaux et balance des paiements pays cas de l'Argentine 1.png|thumb|center|Source: Feenstra and Taylor, 2008.]]

Conséquences d'un défaut: le pays devient moins attractif pour les investissements étrangers et le pays devra payer des taux d’intérêt plus élevés.

Notion de risque pays: supplément de taux d’intérêt qu’un pays doit payer pour compenser les investisseurs du risque de défaut.

Exemple en Juin 2010, d’après le Financial Times, comparé aux bons du Trésor américains:
*Pays avec «bonnes notes»: Pologne (A-): +1.88%, Mexique (BBB): +1.36%
*Pays avec des «junk-bond grades»: Colombie (BB+): 2.16%, Turkey (BB+): +2.64%
*Pays qui sont toujours considérés comme "techniquement en défaut": Argentine (grade D): +33%

== Correction partielle ? ==

Correction partielle depuis 2009, Explications ?

[[File:économie internationale comptes nationaux et balance des paiements correction partielle 1.png|thumb|center|Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2011.]]

= Résumé =

La position extérieure d’un pays est fréquemment mesurée par le solde du compte courant (CC) ou par celui de la balance de base (BB)

En termes d’agrégats macroéconomiques, CC est égal à la différence entre le revenu national brut et l’absorption (ou dépense intérieure)

CC découle du solde de la balance commerciale et de celui de la balance des revenus de facteurs. Il reflète la capacité (ou le besoin) de financement externe du pays considéré.

Les différents postes du compte capital (CK) et du compte financier (CF) indiquent la matérialisation de cette capacité de financement en termes de variation des actifs détenus.

Le solde de la BB indique la capacité de la Banque Centrale à honorer ses engagements en régime de changes fixes

Les déséquilibres extérieurs se sont fortement accrus depuis 2001.

= Annexes =

= References = 
<references/>

[[Catégorie:Économie]]
[[Catégorie:Économie internationale]]
[[Catégorie:Federica Sbergami]]
[[Category:2011]] 
[[Category:2012]]  
[[Category:2013]] 
[[Category:2014]]