Modification de La economía: ¿un New Deal global?
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La cuestión económica es importante. La dimensión económica es un elemento absolutamente fundamental de la política exterior estadounidense y del modo de expansión estadounidense desde finales del siglo XIX hasta nuestros días. La cuestión económica está relacionada con la cuestión de la política exterior y la democracia, porque en la política exterior estadounidense existe un vínculo íntimo entre la dimensión económica y, en particular, el desarrollo económico y la prosperidad, la estabilidad de la sociedad y luego el régimen político. El desarrollo económico conduce a la estabilidad social y, por último, al desarrollo de la democracia. Finalmente, que la promoción de regímenes políticos y un modo de desarrollo económico es una característica recurrente de la política exterior estadounidense. En el mesianismo norteamericano existe la dimensión de la difusión de la democracia, pero también de una manera inseparablemente unida, de hacerse cargo de la prosperidad social, es decir, de comprometerse con el desarrollo económico mundial. | La cuestión económica es importante. La dimensión económica es un elemento absolutamente fundamental de la política exterior estadounidense y del modo de expansión estadounidense desde finales del siglo XIX hasta nuestros días. La cuestión económica está relacionada con la cuestión de la política exterior y la democracia, porque en la política exterior estadounidense existe un vínculo íntimo entre la dimensión económica y, en particular, el desarrollo económico y la prosperidad, la estabilidad de la sociedad y luego el régimen político. El desarrollo económico conduce a la estabilidad social y, por último, al desarrollo de la democracia. Finalmente, que la promoción de regímenes políticos y un modo de desarrollo económico es una característica recurrente de la política exterior estadounidense. En el mesianismo norteamericano existe la dimensión de la difusión de la democracia, pero también de una manera inseparablemente unida, de hacerse cargo de la prosperidad social, es decir, de comprometerse con el desarrollo económico mundial. | ||
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Por último, es necesario cuestionar los medios de llevar a cabo este proyecto, que se encuentra en el ámbito económico aún más que en el político, que es una sinergia entre actores públicos y privados. Esto se hace en una sinergia entre los empresarios estadounidenses y el Estado norteamericano, que interviene continua y permanentemente. Es un liberalismo engañoso porque desde finales del siglo XIX el Estado ha apoyado el expansionismo estadounidense. | Por último, es necesario cuestionar los medios de llevar a cabo este proyecto, que se encuentra en el ámbito económico aún más que en el político, que es una sinergia entre actores públicos y privados. Esto se hace en una sinergia entre los empresarios estadounidenses y el Estado norteamericano, que interviene continua y permanentemente. Es un liberalismo engañoso porque desde finales del siglo XIX el Estado ha apoyado el expansionismo estadounidense. | ||
= Del mercado americano al mercado mundial = | = Del mercado americano al mercado mundial = | ||
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La lógica de la puerta abierta se materializará en 1899 y 1900 con dos notas de John Hay que enviarán notas diplomáticas a las grandes potencias sobre el mercado chino. El mercado chino a finales del siglo XIX era un sueño hecho realidad para todas las grandes potencias, especialmente Estados Unidos, dada la gran población de China. Este mercado es de hecho una promesa falsa y es virtual hasta los años ochenta. El mercado chino está en línea con los industriales americanos de la década de 1880. Toda una serie de grupos de presión como la Asociación Asiática Americana está presionando al gobierno estadounidense para que abra el mercado chino a las empresas estadounidenses. En ese momento, el mercado chino estaba dividido entre las potencias europeas, pero no se invitó a los Estados Unidos. Las notas de John Hay tratarán sobre la apertura del mercado chino. Enviará a las cancillerías occidentales que los puertos chinos deben abrirse sin discriminación y, en particular, a la economía estadounidense. La idea más amplia es abrir el mercado mundial. Las calificaciones de Hay se refieren a la eventual apertura del mercado mundial. Es una posición contraria a la lógica del mercado colonial en manos de algunas grandes potencias. Se trata de notas que son bienvenidas en las cancillerías occidentales sin un efecto inmediato ya que Estados Unidos no es capaz de imponer la lógica de la puerta abierta ya que Estados Unidos representa una gran potencia industrial, pero se percibe militarmente como bastante débil aunque Estados Unidos sea invitado a explotar el mercado chino. | La lógica de la puerta abierta se materializará en 1899 y 1900 con dos notas de John Hay que enviarán notas diplomáticas a las grandes potencias sobre el mercado chino. El mercado chino a finales del siglo XIX era un sueño hecho realidad para todas las grandes potencias, especialmente Estados Unidos, dada la gran población de China. Este mercado es de hecho una promesa falsa y es virtual hasta los años ochenta. El mercado chino está en línea con los industriales americanos de la década de 1880. Toda una serie de grupos de presión como la Asociación Asiática Americana está presionando al gobierno estadounidense para que abra el mercado chino a las empresas estadounidenses. En ese momento, el mercado chino estaba dividido entre las potencias europeas, pero no se invitó a los Estados Unidos. Las notas de John Hay tratarán sobre la apertura del mercado chino. Enviará a las cancillerías occidentales que los puertos chinos deben abrirse sin discriminación y, en particular, a la economía estadounidense. La idea más amplia es abrir el mercado mundial. Las calificaciones de Hay se refieren a la eventual apertura del mercado mundial. Es una posición contraria a la lógica del mercado colonial en manos de algunas grandes potencias. Se trata de notas que son bienvenidas en las cancillerías occidentales sin un efecto inmediato ya que Estados Unidos no es capaz de imponer la lógica de la puerta abierta ya que Estados Unidos representa una gran potencia industrial, pero se percibe militarmente como bastante débil aunque Estados Unidos sea invitado a explotar el mercado chino. | ||
La política de puertas abiertas se introdujo gradualmente en los años 1890 y 1900. Con la presidencia de Wilson, la diplomacia del dólar y la política de puertas abiertas se desarrollarán, sistematizando que el mundo debe ser un mercado abierto único y amplio con el menor número posible de aranceles protectores. Los dos discursos entre la creación de áreas protegidas, por un lado, y un mercado completamente abierto, por otro, se desarrollan al mismo tiempo. La lógica de sistematizar la puerta abierta está presente en los Catorce Puntos del discurso de enero de 1918. | La política de puertas abiertas se introdujo gradualmente en los años 1890 y 1900. Con la presidencia de Wilson, la diplomacia del dólar y la política de puertas abiertas se desarrollarán, sistematizando que el mundo debe ser un mercado abierto único y amplio con el menor número posible de aranceles protectores. Los dos discursos entre la creación de áreas protegidas, por un lado, y un mercado completamente abierto, por otro, se desarrollan al mismo tiempo. La lógica de sistematizar la puerta abierta está presente en los Catorce Puntos del discurso de enero de 1918. Se considera que ésta es una de las cuestiones fundamentales que deben abordarse después del primer conflicto mundial. Vemos cómo la noción de una puerta abierta de Wilson está en el corazón de la política exterior de Estados Unidos y en el corazón de la relación que Estados Unidos está construyendo con el resto del mundo. | ||
== Evolución de la situación entre las dos guerras mundiales == | == Evolución de la situación entre las dos guerras mundiales == | ||
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== Teorías de la modernización == | == Teorías de la modernización == | ||
The issue of international trade and its reorganisation, particularly on a liberal basis, is the organisational system envisaged at Bretton Woods. There have been two directions of work in the American strategy from the beginning, and they still are. From an economic strategy point of view, the United States navigates between a regionalist strategy and a globalization strategy. These strategies may seem contradictory, but theory is often contradicted by practice. There is an intellectual contradiction between the project of regionalism and internationalism, but this is not the case. | |||
At the end of the 19th century, there was a strategy to build dollar zones at the regional level and promote the Open Door on a global scale. In 1944, it was the logic of globalization that prevailed, but for a short period of time, because in Bretton Woods there was the system that considered the world as a dollar zone and the World Trade Organization's project was formalized in 1944 and 1945, but which was finally formalized at the Havana Conference in 1948. The initial plan was to create an organization that would bring together all the countries of the world into one organization. From 1945 to 1946, the logic of the Cold War functioned and this economic reorganization was called into question. The American project quickly became politically impossible with the USSR; on the other hand, the United States did not like it and would be constrained by a framework they did not like. The multilateral dimension imagined rather ephemerally in 1944 and 1945 was set aside quite rapidly. | |||
Even though the Havana Conference, which was held from October 1947 to March 1948, was to be the birthplace of the International Trade Organization, the United States signed the GATT with a number of Marshall aid recipients in October 1947. The signing of the GATT allows withdrawal in the countries of the American orbit and in particular in Western Europe in a more limited regionalist approach. We can clearly see how, in the years 1944 and 1947, we are moving from a logic of globalization to a regional logic with 23 countries. The GATT was signed in 1947 to liberalize trade between signatory countries. | |||
At the same time, the International Trade Organization was created, but the U.S. government knew at the time that it would not ratify it. The treaty is signed, but will never be presented by Truman to Congress. Between 1944 and 1947, the process of international reorganization shifted from a global to a more regional approach. The geopolitical break-up of the Cold War plays a very important role in this change of strategy. | |||
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This is produced in a series of institutions that are American universities, foundations and think tanks. One of the best-known authors is Walt Whitman Rostow who published The Stages of Economic Growth in 1960. An anti-communist manifesto. What became a classic economic literature was produced in the context of the Cold War, ideological struggle and a development model for some countries. On the other hand, this book proposes an international development according to a global pattern. Rostow is not only an economist, but has important political relays who became one of the most influential economic advisers to American presidents in the 1960s and 1970s, including Johnson and Kennedy. There is a direct connection between knowledge production and implementation within the framework of a particular policy. Rostow, at the height of his influence during the 1960s, fell sharply in 1970, particularly since the United States withdrew from development assistance, but his legacy is to be found in the structural adjustment policies of the IMF and World Bank in the 1980s, which were partly based on this reading grid. Other modernization theorists include Seymour Lipset, Samuel Huntington and Talcott Parsons. They are key theories in this period, with important relays within the US government and in this way within international institutions, showing the link between the theoretical production of knowledge and its implementation in politics, but which also has broader political implications. | |||
== Ayuda al desarrollo == | == Ayuda al desarrollo == | ||
Development policy is only a continuation of the Marshall Plan. UNRRA is the prototype of the Marshall Plan, and the Marshall Plan is the prototype of development assistance. This is a single policy. The operating logic is identical. Development aid is no more and no less than a "Marshall Plan" for underdeveloped countries. This policy is a direct application of modernization theories that crystallized in the 1950s, but were implemented in the 1940s. | |||
[[Image:Roosevelt_signing_TVA_Act_(1933).jpg|right|thumb|upright=1.3|200px|L'acte de signature du ''Tennessee Valley Authority Act'' par Roosevelt et ses conseillers en 1933.]] | [[Image:Roosevelt_signing_TVA_Act_(1933).jpg|right|thumb|upright=1.3|200px|L'acte de signature du ''Tennessee Valley Authority Act'' par Roosevelt et ses conseillers en 1933.]] | ||
Development aid draws on a much earlier chronological perspective. If we look at development aid policy, we realize that its laboratory for implementation even before foreign countries is the southern United States, which considers it to be their "Third World". If there is a north-south divide, it is not only due to slavery, but also the economic system between agriculture and industry. An important chapter in American history is the development of the southern part of the United States from which development assistance originated in the 1920s and 1930s. In this process, the New Deal is a crucial moment. The symbol of the New Deal is the Tennessee Valley Authority[TVA] which all the development of Tennessee with the construction of large dams with electrification of the countryside in particular. The New Deal is partly a modernization and development company in the southern United States. | |||
Johnson | Johnson will say in the 1960s that if the Americans are able to understand what is happening in development in other countries, it is because they have experienced it at home. The South is a laboratory for American development policy. Finally, everything that has been implemented in developing countries since the 1950s and 1960s is done on this model. From the end of the 1940s, American development policy was launched into the Cold War and a whole series of modernisations. In other words, the internationalization of economic planning is a Cold War strategy for modernization and integration into the liberal economy. | ||
The Point Four Program, founded in January 1949 by Truman, led to the creation of the Technical Cooperation Administration[TCA] in 1950, is the implementation of a development and technical assistance program for a series of non-European countries. Beginning in the late 1940s, the United States launched development programs in which it spent huge sums of money. Development aid has an economic component to contribute to the development of domestic markets in these countries, but also to trade with the United States. The political logic is the Cold War logic with the idea of anchoring these countries in the western orbit and removing them from Soviet influence. Between 1946 and 1960, U.S. aid amounted to $84 billion, including $43 billion for Europe, $19 billion for the Far East, $13.4 billion for the Middle East, $4.4 billion for Latin America and $882 million for Africa. | |||
After the ATT, the second stage in development policy is the Alliance for Progress speech given by Kennedy in January 1961 and the creation of USAID, which is the extension of the ATT to other sectors, particularly in Latin America, and at the same time the rise in development aid in a number of parts of the world with privileged areas such as Latin America. It is difficult to assess the economic impact, but the political impact is relatively non-existent to the extent that one of the elements of development policy as presented in the theory of modernization is to develop the economy to develop democracy, and US policy in Latin America was not to support the development of democracy. The political and economic dimension is completely linked. | |||
[[Fichier:Mekong River Commission banderole au Laos.jpg|thumb|left|Une banderole de la MRC à Vientiane.]] | [[Fichier:Mekong River Commission banderole au Laos.jpg|thumb|left|Une banderole de la MRC à Vientiane.]] | ||
Another major area is South-East Asia with Korea and Vietnam in particular, where we can see how the United States is grappling with an initiative set up by the United Nations in 1957, the Mekong River Commission, which aims to build large infrastructures and in particular a series of dams on the Mekong to control its flow, electrify the countryside. From the late 1950s and into the 1960s, the United States will invest in the Mekong River Commission with the aim of reproducing VAT in Vietnam with the idea of contributing to economic modernization of Vietnam is to its anchoring in the Western and American camp in particular. The problem is that the increase in development aid policy comes at the same time that the United States is starting the excessive war in Vietnam. The two logics will lose and break each other, highlighting the difficulty of implementation in a country at war. Much of the development aid is used to heal the wounded and bury the dead of American bombings, but also to rebuild dams financed by development aid. The United States withdrew from the Mekong River Commission when it withdrew from Vietnam in 1975. In the 1970s, development aid will decline considerably in large part because of the extremely limited political impact. | |||
= | = Energy: an economic and strategic challenge = | ||
The case of oil shows how American foreign policy is linked to the economic dimension. | |||
== | == Oil in the American Economy and Society == | ||
Oil is a commodity that became fundamental from the 20th century onwards in the world economy, but particularly in the United States, which at the end of the 19th century was both the world's largest producer and the largest consumer. The Standard Oil company owned about 90% of the oil trade until 1910. | |||
Oil is at the heart of the U.S. economy and American culture as part of the American way of life based on the freedom of the individual, mobility and the car that crosses the United States. It is an element of American individualistic culture. The important thing is the 1940s because from that point on, the United States no longer produces enough oil to meet its booming domestic demand. | |||
== | == A Strategic Issue == | ||
The geopolitical context of the inter-war period and the Second World War is important, becoming a strategic issue. Finally, a large part of the military operations that took place between 1941 and 1943 had the major objective of controlling oil routes. This is true for the German invasion of the USSR. Controlling oil routes such as Iraq and Iran is essential to keep the military company going. One of the reasons why Germany was suffocated at the end of the war and because Hitler failed to control oil sources. This strategic issue will continue during the Cold War. As there is an arms race logic, there is a technological dimension, but also a fuel logic. | |||
== | == Securing supplies == | ||
Securing oil supplies is an extremely important element of American economic diplomacy since the inter-war period and especially since the Second World War. During the 1920s and 1930s, the United States entered into oil negotiations in the Middle East with the entry into the capital of the Iraqi petroleum company and the Anglo-Persian company in 1928. | |||
The United States will establish preferential partnerships with countries that seek to escape from the English, such as Saudi Arabia, with the Standard Oil Company. In 1945, an agreement was concluded between Roosevelt and Ibn Séoud to create ARAMCO to give the United States preferential access to Saudi Arabia's petroleum resources against military protection. This alliance will function almost without any problems until the end of the 1990s with the increase in attacks on the United States. This alliance continues, but is less natural than it was in the 1940s and 1960s. From the aftermath of the Second World War, there was an extremely important American grip on the supply of oil in the Middle East region, so much so that Iran tried to emancipate itself from this control with the arrival of Mossadegh, who attempted to nationalize Iranian oil in 1951, but was overthrown by a coup d'État that established the Shah. This is a context in which the United States secures its oil supply in the Middle East, highlighting the economic, geopolitical and strategic dimensions that are fundamentally linked. | |||
= | = The end of the Bretton Woods system = | ||
The United States is no longer a pole of economic stability as it was before 1945, fundamentally changing the international roles of the United States. There is no longer the overwhelming dominance of the United States over the world economy as in the post-World War II period. Moreover, with the collapse of the Soviet bloc, the competing system collapses and remains the liberal model of relative consensus. While, following the 1945s, there was a connection between American interests and the geographical areas under their influence, from the 1970s onwards, there was a growing disconnection. As a result, over the past 40 years, the United States has implemented a series of concurrent and competing strategies to return to the heart of the global economy. Sometimes they appear to be contradictory, but are implemented at the same time. | |||
== | == From fixed to floating exchange rates == | ||
The end of the Bretton Woods system means that we are moving from the fixed exchange rate system to the floating exchange rate system. The Bretton Woods system is a system that balances the world economy, but it is a precarious and fragile balance because this Bretton Woods system is based entirely on the domination and strength of the American economy and its stability, which is extremely important after the Second World War, but also on the American currency, which is a factor of international economic growth. This system depends on the balance of large loans to foreign countries between the amount of loans that are out of the United States and the amount of U.S. exports that bring in foreign currency to the United States. This "in-end" flow is balanced, but will begin to become unbalanced. | |||
The political dimension of this system is also an economic reorganisation of the world linked to it, and in particular from 1947 onwards, which is a system designed to make the liberal ideology triumphant, but from the moment the Cold War comes into being, two models compete with each other. Central to the American strategy is the idea of defending the liberal economy against the Soviet system, which has an economic cost in military terms. Until the late 1960s, it balanced the U.S. profit. It is a system of unstable and fragile equilibrium based on the economic stability of the United States. | |||
This imbalance began to worsen in the 1960s, which was characterized by the rise in the logic of war in Vietnam, the deepening of military engagement in Vietnam and the considerable increase in military spending. Maintaining the system is very expensive. There is a huge alliance system, which is characterized by the establishment of 2,300 bases abroad and is very expensive to maintain. As far as the Vietnam war itself is concerned, it costs $30 billion a year. There is a considerable increase in military spending that is increasingly expensive for the United States to defend the liberal economic model and liberal democracy. | |||
American investments are growing in Europe. From the time the EEC was created, the United States created subsidiaries in Europe so as not to pay customs duties on entry into Europe. If we look at American FDI, it increased by 471% from 1958 to 1968, while at the same time in the United States, investments increased by 52%. The globalization of the U.S. company is important for foreign exchange earnings, but not much work not providing work to U.S. employees. There is an imbalance between money coming out and money coming in. | |||
On the one hand, there are military expenditures and direct investment abroad that cause money to flow out of the United States and exports become insufficient to compensate for the outflow of money from the United States. From the 1950s onwards, and more precisely from 1959 onwards, the United States is in a balance of payments deficit and is facing European countries that have rebuilt and become competitors. | |||
The United States will start to borrow a lot more, especially as the United States holds the dollar and borrows dollars at low rates obtaining more facilities from European banks and in particular from German banks. From the moment there is an influx of money into the U.S. through borrowing, will start working the "money board", as the U.S. will no longer have enough gold to cover foreign borrowing. At the same time, there is the cost of military engagement that leads to weakening American economic power and the stability of the Bretton Woods system that is built around the dollar. Once the dollar is no longer a credible currency, it is no longer a guarantee of stability in the international economic system. U.S. allies will fund the United States, but will no longer want to continue to do so, because from the 1960s onwards, the United States will finance its deficit through its allies. European central banks, and in particular the Bundesbank, are reluctant to lend to the United States. As the dollar is destabilized, it triggers speculative attacks that weaken the dollar. All these phenomena coalesced in the spring of 1971 with the Bundesbank, which stopped buying dollars on the market to support the dollar. The collapse of the system is partly due to the Bundesbank, which by its symbolic act shows that the system is no longer functioning. | |||
In 1971, the U.S. trade balance was in deficit for the first time since 1893. The United States buys more than it sells, not to say that the economy is no longer credible, not as dominant as it once was. August 15,1971 is the end of the Bretton Woods system, but it is not a unilateral action by Nixon, but a reaction to the fact that European countries refuse to continue to support a de facto overvalued US currency. Suspending convertibility in gold allows the dollar to go down to boost exports. The fixed exchange rate system ceased to exist in the summer of 1971. The measure will be ratified following a conference in December 1971 leading to the Smithsonian agreements where the dollar is devalued by 10% and in 1973, the fixed exchange rate ceases to exist de jure. A system that has lasted since 1945 is quickly dismantled. | |||
== | == The dependency of the U.S. economy == | ||
The American economy, which had been driving the world economy since 1945, is becoming increasingly dependent on other countries that have recovered economically since the end of the Second World War. Europe's economic recovery took about ten years until the mid-1950s, and Europeans began to recover in the 1960s. | |||
The U.S. economy lives on the credit of others who can no longer play a de facto pivotal role in the post-1945 world economy. The economy is all the more dependent on European economies. Until the 1930s, the U.S. economy's share of foreign trade was relatively small. From the 1960s onwards, it became increasingly important and the foreign economy became in deficit, which had a major impact on the American economy. US foreign trade represented 30% of GNP in 2000. | |||
The issue of energy expenditure is a strategic aspect. Since World War II, energy spending in the U.S. economy has been rising steadily while the United States was almost self-sufficient before World War II. After the conflict, their dependence on external sources increases. 15% were imported in 1960,25% in 1972,50% in 1978. This plays a major role in American dependence on the rest of the world. | |||
[[File:% du PNB des Etats-Unis.jpg|vignette|droite|Durant la Guerre froide, les économies des États-Unis et celle de l'Europe de l'Ouest n'ont jamais pu être surpassées.]] | [[File:% du PNB des Etats-Unis.jpg|vignette|droite|Durant la Guerre froide, les économies des États-Unis et celle de l'Europe de l'Ouest n'ont jamais pu être surpassées.]] | ||
From the time the trade deficit first appeared in 1971, it became permanent until today, when it is growing steadily. From 1971 onwards, the economy became structurally loss-making, with an increasingly colossal sum of $100 billion in 1988, $340 billion in 1999 reaching $550 billion in 2011. This has led to an explosion in foreign borrowing, increasing the burden of debt and public debt. The more we borrow, the larger the debt becomes and today it is at a colossal level. | |||
Since the end of 2013, the President and Congress have renegotiated the "budget wall" in order to raise the maximum debt ceiling enshrined in the Constitution. Debt began to be repurchased in the 1960s until the 1970s by Germany, followed by Japan, Saudi Arabia and China. If there is a collapse of the U.S. economy, China also collapses so that the economies are interdependent. In 1945, the United States was in a position of economic dominance with low dependency, while in the late 1960s, its economy was increasingly connected, dependent on the rest of the world, interdependent in particular with U.S. debt, which was financed by foreign countries. The context changed from the 1970s onwards, making American power very strong, but no longer resembles what it could have been in the twenty years after World War II. | |||
The United States is still the world's largest economy. From the moment the economic system is globalized, the economic collapse of the United States would lead to the collapse of the rest of the industrial powers. Support for the U.S. economy can also be explained by this, but the situation of domination is no longer the same as it was before the 1960s. The terms of the relationship between the United States and the world changed fundamentally from 1945-1971. | |||
= | = The United States in the face of global multipolarization = | ||
== | == The rise of Europe and Japan == | ||
The multipolarization of the world is first and foremost the reconstruction of a certain number of countries, in particular the countries of Western Europe and Japan. Between 1945 and 1960, the European and Japanese economies were on American perfusion, in particular being fed by the Marshall Plan credits allowing these economies to buy equipment, start selling, trade among themselves and with the United States. This reconstruction is being done extremely quickly. After a few years of rebuilding industrial potential, starting in 1954 and 1954, economic dynamism was boosted by the establishment of the European Economic Community in 1957. Growth rates are sometimes 7%, 8%, 9% or 10%. Reconstruction is rapid, and these countries became competitors of the United States fairly quickly by the early 1960s. | |||
== | == Oil shocks == | ||
[[File:Oil Prices 1861 2007.png|thumb|300px|The real oil price was low during the post-war decades, with this ending in the 1973 oil crisis.]] | [[File:Oil Prices 1861 2007.png|thumb|300px|The real oil price was low during the post-war decades, with this ending in the 1973 oil crisis.]] | ||
Oil shocks signify the arrival on the geo-economic scene of countries that were not there before. There are far-reaching structural causes being the fact that in 1945, the United States when it introduced the "military umbrella" on Arab countries and Saudi Arabia in particular, this was based in particular on a relatively low oil price. On a regular basis, the Arab countries try to obtain an increase in oil prices and this demand is always met with a refusal by the United States. Since the Arab countries are divided, they are unable to influence the United States in this type of negotiation. Even after the creation of OPEC in the 1960s, with the ambition of joining forces to influence Western countries, OPEC countries could not reach an agreement. A whole exasperation is taking place in the face of low oil prices, which pay little. The direct cause is the 1973 Kippur War with U.S. military support to Israel resulting in retaliatory action by Arab countries and rising oil prices. | |||
The end of the Bretton Woods system and the German example is symbolic, because it means that the United States no longer makes laws on the international economic system giving ideas and showing that it is possible to oppose the economic system of the United States. Oil-exporting countries will decide to raise oil prices. In 1973, prices are multiplied by 4 and between 1973 and 1979 prices are multiplied by 12, accentuating the American trade deficit. This shows the rebellion of a group of countries that were under the tutelage of the United States, including the Baghdad Pact. | |||
These oil shocks come after the end of the Bretton Woods system, showing that the international economic system set up after 1945 is no longer controlled by the United States. Symbolically, the oil shock means a new stage in the loss of US control over the international economic system. | |||
== | == A New International Economic Order [NOEI]? == | ||
In the early 1970s, the new international economic order was in vogue. This is one of the signs of the multipolarization and contestation of American leadership. The centrepiece of the new international economic order and the GATT issue, which is a free trade agreement first signed between the United States and a number of European countries and a number of Third World countries. The principle of non-discrimination in trade and the principle of tariff reduction work less well for fragile economies in developing and less industrialized countries with few product lines. From the late 1960s and early 1970s, the GATT principle was increasingly challenged by Third World countries. That is when we talk about neo-colonialism with a system that replaces political domination with economic domination. | |||
The creation of UNCTAD in 1964 was the beginning of the challenge within the United Nations framework, which was a reorganization linked to the arrival at the United Nations of most of the newly decolonized countries changing the balance of power at the United Nations. This is a sign of the willingness of Third World countries to set up a trade organisation different from the GATT. Within UNCTAD, it is a matter of negotiating preferential access to the markets of industrialized countries in order to make it easier for them to place their products and be competitive. From the early 1970s onwards, there was the example of the Bundesbank and the Arab countries, which led to two UN resolutions in May 1974 and September 1975, claiming that they wanted to establish a new international economic order. These resolutions are in themselves and explicitly a frontal critique of the post-1945 economic order as drawn by the United States. It is also a sign that the United States is no longer in control of the UN. These resolutions reiterate the need to establish the international economic order on a country-by-country basis. | |||
The issue of economic sovereignty is the idea of the right to set tariffs in order to favour domestic industry. It is educational protectionism with the idea of economic sovereignty that is a strong demand through the question of the new international economic order. The issue of technology transfer is the idea of enabling Third World countries to catch up with industrialised countries and trade with them on an equitable basis in the context of technological catching-up. The new international economic order will not change international rules, but is corroborating at a time when there is a growing challenge to American economic leadership. | |||
== | == What leadership in a multipolar global economy? == | ||
The question is how American leadership evolves in the context of multipolarization and in the years following the end of the Cold War. From the moment the competing system of the liberal system, which is the planned economy, collapses, the remaining model is that of liberal capitalism. The ultimate goal of the American policy of universalizing the liberal system is achieved. Once the objective is achieved, the question is raised of how to maintain leadership with the emergence of competing economies. The whole of Eastern Europe is converting to liberal capitalism with the enlargement of the European Union, giving birth to a colossal market. It is a manifestation of strong competition with the European economic model. The question is how to position oneself in relation to an increasingly important European market. | |||
It is also a question of knowing how to position oneself vis-à-vis Russia, which is growing in the 2000s, especially when gas and oil prices are rising. There is also the questioning of positioning in relation to China. China converted to the liberal economy in the 1980s while retaining the single-party system that allowed China to survive as a political system. China has become a huge economic market that is still in its infancy. It is a country that is both a huge market and an important competitor. The United States has difficulty positioning itself after the Cold War. | |||
This is a paradox since, at the same time, the market economy triumphs and American leadership is increasingly being called into question. This question is increasingly complex in the sense that the 1945 system was ultimately quite simple compared to the one that developed from the 1970s onwards in the context of an increasingly interconnected international economy. Even though the Bretton Woods system has ceased to exist, the Bretton Woods institutions continue to exist. Managing the global economy is difficult, as evidenced by the crises of 1997 and 2008, which the United States is not in control of. | |||
= | = The new ways of the open door = | ||
New strategies will be implemented by the United States to respond to this questioning of the international economic order, which calls into question their post-1945 status. At the same time, there is a common thread running through American economic policy, which is to globalize a market without customs duties, and at the same time it is far from being a one-size-fits-all strategy characterized by unilateral, bilateral and regional actions. The period when the American economic strategy is coherent is 1945 to 1960. | |||
== | == Challenging multilateralism == | ||
There is growing criticism from the United States of GATT, which is seen as too small and too slow an organization to liberalize world markets in most areas. There is a questioning of multilateralism on the American side and the promotion of unilateralism through criticism of multilateralism. This questioning of the manifest in relation to the emergence of competitors who compete with the United States in an increasingly aggressive manner. The end of the Bretton Woods system and the passage of the floating exchange rate system is a sign of the United States' loss of control over the international system; it is a major rupture. The devaluation of the dollar is intended to boost U.S. exports, not to stabilize the global economic system, but to safeguard U.S. economic interests. The move to the floating exchange rate system is a sign of a unilateral reorientation of US policy from the 1970s onwards. There is a disconnection between the interests of the United States and the global economy. | |||
U.S. trade policy is producing a number of measures and legislation that are increasingly unilateral to restore American economic strength and force open markets. Beginning in the 1970s, U.S. trade policy was governed by two major laws that made U.S. trade relations with the rest of the world: the 1974 Trade Act and the 1988 Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act, particularly section 301 of 1974 and super-section 301 of 1988, which allowed the U.S. to impose trade sanctions against countries that hindered U.S. exports. The United States reserves the right to develop a unilateral policy outside GATT agreements. Between 1960 and 2000, there were about 150 uses. This is a sign of a trend in the US economy and US trade policy towards unilateralism. | |||
Bilateral agreements had disappeared after 1945 because the post-war challenge was whether a set of bilateral or multilateral agreements was needed. Bilateralism re-emerged in the 1970s with the United States, which resumed signing a number of bilateral agreements in order to obtain preferential agreements and increase their exports. | |||
The WTO aims to organize international trade with the objective of having a multilateral system in all areas. The unilateralist policy is increasingly pronounced in Congress in the 1990s, which opposes multilateralism in general as much for UN peacekeeping operations as for trade agreements with a willingness to withdraw from the WTO. Section 301 is now despite the creation of the WTO. | |||
== | == Between regionalism and globalization == | ||
Achieving a multilateral negotiating framework is the U.S. objective characterized by the fact that the major multilateral rounds of GATT negotiations were initiated under U.S. impetus, particularly the Kennedy round. The Tokyo Round and the Uruguay Round followed. The development of multilateral negotiations is extremely important. The role of the United States leading to the creation of the WTO in 1994 is very important. There is a clear link between the WTO and the ICO with the Havana Charter. The ICO had aborted in 1948 following the Cold War logic. Following the collapse of the Soviet bloc, the creation of a new international economic organization was relaunched, leading to the creation of the WTO. Today, the WTO represents 97% of world trade, 159 countries and is independent of the UN, whereas the ICO in 1948 was supposed to be part of the UN. It shows the evolution of things. The goal of the United States in 1945 was to have an international organization connected to the UN, and the position of the United States vis-à-vis the UN has changed. This is a sign of growing unilateralism, but also the fact that the UN has no control over what happens at the WTO. | |||
The WTO is part of the US strategy to broaden the countries involved in trade negotiations, but also to extend the scope of trade negotiations, since the GATT concerned before all industrial production. From now on, the agricultural sector, which was concerned when it was not taken into account by the GATT with the idea of bypassing the CAP which is in place in Europe, but also the cultural industry and intellectual property. Oppositions to the American strategy were strong at least from the point of view of both European and developing countries, so that agricultural and cultural fields are excluded with the introduction of the cultural exception that was put in place at the time of the WTO trade talks. | |||
[[Fichier:Photos NewYork1 032.jpg|thumb|Broad Street, avec le New York Stock Exchange.]] | [[Fichier:Photos NewYork1 032.jpg|thumb|Broad Street, avec le New York Stock Exchange.]] | ||
When we look at the major trade conferences and negotiations, especially since the Seattle Conference in 1999, then Doha in 2001, Cancun in 2003, Hong Kong in 2005 and Bali in 2012, they have all failed. From the American perspective, what was meant to be a multilateral negotiating forum to broaden the spectrum of multilateral negotiations and regain leadership has failed. The large rounds of negotiations almost all ended in failure. This did not translate into a reaffirmation of American leadership on the global economy. In other words, it is an area of multilateral negotiations that the United States does not dominate. | |||
At the same time as unilateralism and multilateralism, there are regionalist strategies, because the global multilateral system and doubled by regional agreements that the United States has considerably increased since the late 1980s, particularly with the free trade agreement which is the NAFTA set up in 1993 in response to the Single European Act. Many free trade agreements were put in place to double the multilateral system through a series of free trade zones. Like the aborted project of the Free Trade Area of the Americas[ZLEA] in 2005, Asia pacific economic cooperation[APEC] or the aborted projects with the Europe of the MAI and NPET in 1998. | |||
The idea is that today we have a strategy that aims to create a global multilateral strategy, but with more or less large free trade areas, with the establishment of a large North American free trade area comparable to the European Union, participation in multiple free trade areas and the promotion of interconnections between them within the framework of a series of interconnected regional groups advocating another way towards globalisation. The idea is to be able to bypass an unwieldy WTO. | |||
= Anexos = | = Anexos = | ||
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<references/> | <references/> | ||
[[Category: Ludovic Tournès]] | [[Category:Ludovic Tournès]] | ||
[[Category: | [[Category:histoire]] | ||
[[Category: | [[Category:relations internationales]] | ||
[[Category: | [[Category:Histoire des États-Unis]] | ||
[[Category:2012]] | |||
[[Category: 2012]] | [[Category:2013]] | ||
[[Category: 2013]] | [[Category:2014]] | ||
[[Category: 2014]] |