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[[Fichier:Carte proche-orient + moyent-orient.jpg|350px|vignette|droite|Map of the Middle East.]] | |||
We will reflect on developments in the Middle East and move on to the next phase of the analysis of radical Islamist terrorism. | We will reflect on developments in the Middle East and move on to the next phase of the analysis of radical Islamist terrorism. | ||
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According to some, it was the American strategist Alfred Mahan who used the word first in an article in the National Review in 1902. Admiral Mahan militates for the development of a fleet that ensures military supremacy to expand its power and capture the resources to guide a military strategy. | According to some, it was the American strategist Alfred Mahan who used the word first in an article in the National Review in 1902. Admiral Mahan militates for the development of a fleet that ensures military supremacy to expand its power and capture the resources to guide a military strategy. | ||
= The concept of the Middle East = | |||
= The | |||
It is a concept that contradicts the concept of the Oriental Question in the sense of a questioning of the future of the Orient. Moreover, it is opposed to the French concept of "Pays du Levant" - a geographical and political vision - which postulates a continuity between the geomorphology of Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. From the 1920s and 1930s onwards, the concept of the Middle East was to take root, in particular through the constitution of large oil companies and the constitution and consolidation of political regimes such as, for example, in Saudi Arabia, which was created by Western countries. The quarrel reflects different perspectives on the legitimacy of the policies of the major powers in the region: over time, the concept of the Middle East will supersede that of the Levant. Francophone vision will not survive decolonization. | It is a concept that contradicts the concept of the Oriental Question in the sense of a questioning of the future of the Orient. Moreover, it is opposed to the French concept of "Pays du Levant" - a geographical and political vision - which postulates a continuity between the geomorphology of Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. From the 1920s and 1930s onwards, the concept of the Middle East was to take root, in particular through the constitution of large oil companies and the constitution and consolidation of political regimes such as, for example, in Saudi Arabia, which was created by Western countries. The quarrel reflects different perspectives on the legitimacy of the policies of the major powers in the region: over time, the concept of the Middle East will supersede that of the Levant. Francophone vision will not survive decolonization. | ||
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Since its launch in 1964 Middle Eastern Studies has become required reading for all those with a serious concern in understanding the modern Middle East. | Since its launch in 1964 Middle Eastern Studies has become required reading for all those with a serious concern in understanding the modern Middle East. | ||
Middle Eastern Studies | Middle Eastern Studies provides the most up-to-date academic research on the history and politics of the Arabic-speaking countries in the Middle East and North Africa as well as on Turkey, Iran and Israel, particularly during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries ". | ||
The Middle East is becoming an inescapable concept, particularly with the perception of conflicts between Israel and Arab countries. Israel is an integral part of the Middle East concept, as underlined by Middle Eastern studies. | The Middle East is becoming an inescapable concept, particularly with the perception of conflicts between Israel and Arab countries. Israel is an integral part of the Middle East concept, as underlined by Middle Eastern studies. | ||
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The first period is a critique of French colonialism. Initially, the United States was to show a well-developed benevolence towards the decolonization political regimes that emancipated themselves from the French and British tutelage in order to move on to conditional release, as with Iraq in 1932 or Egypt in 1937. | The first period is a critique of French colonialism. Initially, the United States was to show a well-developed benevolence towards the decolonization political regimes that emancipated themselves from the French and British tutelage in order to move on to conditional release, as with Iraq in 1932 or Egypt in 1937. | ||
The acceleration of the American presence in the Middle East comes with the Soviet advance beyond the Black Sea. It is a question of countering the USSR by means of a strategy of | The acceleration of the American presence in the Middle East comes with the Soviet advance beyond the Black Sea. It is a question of countering the USSR by means of a strategy of Containment, that is to say that policies will be put in place to contain the political power of the other by consolidating other states. There is an opposition within the framework of a binary world between "free world" and "communist world". | ||
== The | == The measures == | ||
Conventional means are the sale and control of arms sales to the Middle East by France, the United States and Great Britain. On the other hand, we must think of the military presence that will lead to the permanent parking of the Fifth Fleet in the Mediterranean to secure the transit routes for strategic supplies, but also to intimidate or react in the event of threats to its nationals. Strengthen support for Israel, which is seen as an area of stability to think of the Middle East as a powder keg. In the Arab-Israeli wars, Israel has always found strong support from the West for arms and logistics. | Conventional means are the sale and control of arms sales to the Middle East by France, the United States and Great Britain. On the other hand, we must think of the military presence that will lead to the permanent parking of the Fifth Fleet in the Mediterranean to secure the transit routes for strategic supplies, but also to intimidate or react in the event of threats to its nationals. Strengthen support for Israel, which is seen as an area of stability to think of the Middle East as a powder keg. In the Arab-Israeli wars, Israel has always found strong support from the West for arms and logistics. | ||
The great conflict that will arise is the conflict that will appear with Nasser. Nasser will turn to the Americans to finance the Aswan dam which will refuse to turn to the Soviets who will finance it. The Nassérien regime presents itself as socialist, but not as Marxist. Nasser will be the great charismatic leader of pan-Arabism which is the idea of the great Arab and secular nation. It is the introduction of a model that is significantly linked to the Soviet Union, but at the same time seeks to assert an original position of the non-aligned countries. | The great conflict that will arise is the conflict that will appear with Nasser. Nasser will turn to the Americans to finance the Aswan dam which will refuse to turn to the Soviets who will finance it. The Nassérien regime presents itself as socialist, but not as Marxist. Nasser will be the great charismatic leader of pan-Arabism which is the idea of the great Arab and secular nation. It is the introduction of a model that is significantly linked to the Soviet Union, but at the same time seeks to assert an original position of the non-aligned countries. | ||
The Middle East appears to the West as an area of uncertainty, a complex area where control and precautionary systems must be developed. There is a double paradox of the American position in the 1950s with a doctrine that aims | The Middle East appears to the West as an area of uncertainty, a complex area where control and precautionary systems must be developed. There is a double paradox of the American position in the 1950s with a doctrine that aims on the one hand to support the national liberation of peoples, and on the other hand to support revolutions that are in progress, but whose outcome is unknown and which often turns against the Americans and their allies such as, for example, France in Algeria, which is rebelling against arms trafficking from Egypt for the FLN. Finally, US interference in local affairs in the name of a strategic imperative. Since this region is a strategic region in terms of resources and political management, the American position will be both to maintain historical and cultural ties with traditional European allies such as England and France and to think that interference is also necessary. | ||
This dual position involves several possible strategies: | This dual position involves several possible strategies: | ||
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[[Fichier:Carte israel moyent orient.jpg|150px|vignette|droite]] | [[Fichier:Carte israel moyent orient.jpg|150px|vignette|droite]] | ||
The logic is to rely on Israel | The logic is to rely on Israel first of all because there is an awareness of the impossibility of building an anti-communist front in the Middle East. There is the fear that "Arab socialism" may spread through the export of the Egyptian model through the transition from "Arab socialism" to pan-Arabism. Israel appears to be an important lever for controlling Arab socialism. | ||
For Americans, Arab socialism appears to be dangerous. The dual purpose of "Arab nationalism" that worries the United States: | For Americans, Arab socialism appears to be dangerous. The dual purpose of "Arab nationalism" that worries the United States: | ||
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== The new words of American hegemony == | == The new words of American hegemony == | ||
D’anciens concepts réactualisés et nouveaux concepts font leur entrée dans le domaine de la stratégie américaine : | |||
*'''Bandwagoning State''' : refers to the act of weaker states joining a stronger power or coalition within balance of power politics.<ref>Quincy Wright (1890-1980) in A Study of War, 1942</ref><ref>Kenneth Waltz in Theory of International Politics, 1979</ref>. | *'''Bandwagoning State''' : refers to the act of weaker states joining a stronger power or coalition within balance of power politics.<ref>Quincy Wright (1890-1980) in A Study of War, 1942</ref><ref>Kenneth Waltz in Theory of International Politics, 1979</ref>. Cela permet d’acquérir de l’influence dans le système impérial afin de ramener l’État vers soi. | ||
*'''Pivotal State''' : countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and ultimately the stability of the international system<ref>Robert S. Chase, Emily Hill, and Paul M. Kennedy, The Pivotal State, 2000</ref>. | *'''Pivotal State''' : countries whose fate determines the survival and success of the surrounding region and ultimately the stability of the international system<ref>Robert S. Chase, Emily Hill, and Paul M. Kennedy, The Pivotal State, 2000</ref>. C’est un État capable de structurer une région. La gestion des relations diplomatiques et économiques est la capacité de stabiliser politiquement une région. | ||
*'''Backlasch States''' : there are few « backlash states » : Cuba, North Korea, Iran, | *'''Backlasch States''' : there are few « backlash states » : Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Irak and Libya. For now they lack the resources of a superpower, which would enable them to seriously threaten the democratic order being created around them. Nevertheless, their behavior is often aggressive ansd defiant. The ties between them are growing as they seek to thwart of quarantine themselves from a global trend to which they seem incapable of adapting<ref>Anthony Lake, Confronting Backlash States, 1994</ref>. C’est un État qui n’a pas de dimension démocratique et qui a un pouvoir de nuisance notamment belliqueux. | ||
*'''Rogue States''' : some states considered threatening to the world's peace. This means meeting certain criteria, such as being ruled by authoritarian regimes that severely restrict human rights, sponsor terrorism, and seek to proliferate weapons of mass destruction<ref>T.D.Allman, Rogue State: America at War with the World, 2004</ref><ref>William Blum, Rogue state: a guide to the world's only superpower. 2006</ref><ref>Noam Chomsky, Rogue States : The Rule of Force in World, 2000</ref>. | *'''Rogue States''' : some states considered threatening to the world's peace. This means meeting certain criteria, such as being ruled by authoritarian regimes that severely restrict human rights, sponsor terrorism, and seek to proliferate weapons of mass destruction<ref>T.D.Allman, Rogue State: America at War with the World, 2004</ref><ref>William Blum, Rogue state: a guide to the world's only superpower. 2006</ref><ref>Noam Chomsky, Rogue States : The Rule of Force in World, 2000</ref>. C’est un niveau supplémentaire dans la gradation de la conflictualité. Dans cette doctrine, ce sont les États qui atteignent à la paix mondiale en recourant à un régime autoritaire, restreignent la liberté humaine et qui financeraient ou utiliseraient le terrorisme comme un mode d’assurance de leur pouvoir. L’utilisation du terrorisme est un mode d’assurance de son pouvoir. C’est aussi celui qui fait de la prolifération nucléaire et d’armes de destruction massives. | ||
Ces termes permettent de fabriquer le discours impérial sur le Moyen-Orient qui est la théorie des « amis-ennemis ». | |||
== The concept of pivotal State and its application to Egypt == | == The concept of pivotal State and its application to Egypt == | ||
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There are two levels of interest in Egypt: | There are two levels of interest in Egypt: | ||
contain the Islamist wave and through it any revolutionary demands in the region. Reference to the Iran of Khomeini and the Islamic Revolution. This is based on any revolutionary ideal in counterpoint to the Iranian revolution. | |||
to be an anchor in diplomacy and the peace process with Israel. Without a pivotal state as a bridge state, this diplomacy would be doomed to failure. | |||
According to Daniel Pipes, Egypt is helping to counterbalance and rebalance the political balance of power in the Middle East. Egypt's entry into the regional geopolitical scene - a powerful negotiating factor with Israel - could be credited to the weakening of the Arab camp and the Palestinians. | According to Daniel Pipes, Egypt is helping to counterbalance and rebalance the political balance of power in the Middle East. Egypt's entry into the regional geopolitical scene - a powerful negotiating factor with Israel - could be credited to the weakening of the Arab camp and the Palestinians. | ||
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The Rogue State opposes not only the international order imposed by the most powerful, but also regional rules put in place by the powerful or the United States, such as Cuba. | The Rogue State opposes not only the international order imposed by the most powerful, but also regional rules put in place by the powerful or the United States, such as Cuba. | ||
The list of Rebel States is subject to caution, varying in space-time. It has long understood Libya, Sudan, Iran and more recently Iraq. What place for Syria? Positions evolve over time and according to regional geopolitical conditions. On the one hand, there is a complicated relationship with the West and | The list of Rebel States is subject to caution, varying in space-time. It has long understood Libya, Sudan, Iran and more recently Iraq. What place for Syria? Positions evolve over time and according to regional geopolitical conditions. On the one hand, there is a complicated relationship with the West and on the other hand, an overarmed and authoritarian state. | ||
The theory of backlash State logically leads to the theory of containment, which questions how to stem the development of either socialism or political Islam. The containment policy will aim at containing political Islam and will produce tools for management. | The theory of backlash State logically leads to the theory of containment, which questions how to stem the development of either socialism or political Islam. The containment policy will aim at containing political Islam and will produce tools for management. | ||
The contents of the containment policy include: | The contents of the containment policy include: | ||
*economic development assistance to stabilize political regimes on the basis of trade and economic opportunities | *economic development assistance to stabilize political regimes on the basis of trade and economic opportunities | ||
military aid to ensure that the country concerned has the means to defend itself geostrategically, particularly through the sale of arms; | |||
*an intervention policy based on "low intensity war"[low intensity conflict] based on conventional weapons and devices | *an intervention policy based on "low intensity war"[low intensity conflict] based on conventional weapons and devices | ||
repressive mechanisms such as the embargo raising the issue of the United Nations management report. | repressive mechanisms such as the embargo raising the issue of the United Nations management report. | ||
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*more active dialogue with Europe on the policy to be pursued in the Middle East. | *more active dialogue with Europe on the policy to be pursued in the Middle East. | ||
== | == La position sur l’Irak a été marquée par les hésitations nées des contradictions géostratégiques == | ||
[[Fichier:USAF F-16A F-15C F-15E Desert Storm pic.jpg|200px|vignette|droite|Opération Desert Storm.]] | [[Fichier:USAF F-16A F-15C F-15E Desert Storm pic.jpg|200px|vignette|droite|Opération Desert Storm.]] | ||
La première guerre du Golfe avait pour objet l’anéantissement de la puissance militaire irakienne. La crainte d’une déstabilisation régionale au profit de l’Iran a conforté les États-Unis dans la conservation du régime de Saddam Hussein – principes de l’école réaliste –. Le régime politique est sauvé, mais placé sous embargo des Nations Unies. Le concept de Rogue State est appliqué à l’Irak jusque dans les dernières années du XXème siècle. | |||
Le renversement le régime irakien devient une nécessité qui se réactualise après le 11 septembre 2001 avec pour ambition de détruire le régime irakien. Le passage par le 11 septembre est très important pour comprendre ce qui va se passer. | |||
= Conclusion : 1993 ou l’année des trois paradigmes pour l’après-guerre froide = | |||
[[Fichier:Alain Joxe - L'Empire du chaos.png|100px|vignette|droite|Alain Joxe - L'Empire du chaos<ref>Joxe, Alain. L'empire Du Chaos: Les Républiques Face À La Domination Américaine Dans L'après-guerre Froide. Paris: La Découverte, 2004. </ref>]] | |||
Les meilleures analyses produites sont pour nous celles d’Alain Joxe auteur de plusieurs ouvrages de géopolitique dont L’Empire du chaos, dont nous référons ici. | |||
Trois paradigmes contenus dans trois livres parus dans la même année 1993 qui est considérée comme une année charnière : | |||
*Samuel Huntington, The Clash of civilizations, 1993; | *Samuel Huntington, The Clash of civilizations, 1993 ; | ||
*Alvin | *Alvin et Heidi Töffler, Third wave information war, 1993 ; | ||
*Anthony Lake, Enlargement versus Containment, 1993. | *Anthony Lake, Enlargement versus Containment, 1993. | ||
== Samuel Huntington [1927 – 2008] == | == Samuel Huntington [1927 – 2008] == | ||
[[File:Samuel P. Huntington (2004 World Economic Forum).jpg|thumb|Samuel Huntington en 2004 au Forum économique mondial de Davos.]] | [[File:Samuel P. Huntington (2004 World Economic Forum).jpg|thumb|Samuel Huntington en 2004 au Forum économique mondial de Davos.]] | ||
Huntington est un brillant universitaire d’Harvard, membre du Conseil de Sécurité́ nationale, auteur de plusieurs livres sur le politique, l’armement, la culture et la stratégie. Il publie en 1993 un article The Clash of Civilizations ; sa thèse : Le monde se divise en civilisations : occidentale, tao-confucéenne, islamique, Hindoue, orthodoxe, latino-américaine. Le choc va se produire entre occidentale, tao-confucéenne et islamique soulevant la question de savoir comment diviser le monde pour le dominer ? | |||
Huntington | |||
L’idée est de diviser le monde pour dominer proposant une stratégie impériale d’alliances. « La civilisation judéo-chrétienne » repose sur le principe de la stratégie impériale classique faite d’alliances. Selon lui, les cultures ne sont pas « mixables ». La seule modernité possible est occidentale caricaturant l’Islam et le présentant comme un danger. Le problème des best-sellers est que ce genre d’ouvrage diffuse des perceptions simplistes. | |||
== Alvin | == Alvin et Heidi Töffler == | ||
Alvin | Alvin et Töffler sont des écrivains, sociologues et futurologues et auteurs en 1970 du ''Choc du futur''. Ils travaillent sur : | ||
* | *« la guerre de l’information », « la guerre de la connaissance » ; | ||
* | *« la guerre de la troisième vague », soit la guerre de la connaissance électronique. | ||
Le concept religieux de « choc des civilisations » est écarté. Pour eux, la nature du conflit est d’ordre entre des civilisations agraires, industrielles et informatiques. Le leadership ne peut être que fondé sur l’information au centre de toute guerre à venir. Information et connaissance vont de pair. Seul le maintien du monopole de la connaissance – non-partage et supériorité – permet de jouer sur l’information qui ne se partage donc pas. | |||
Il ne peut donc y avoir des alliances qui ont pour objet le partage de l’information. Il faut fabriquer des alliances régionales pour permettre aux États-Unis de conserver un leadership mondial. Le concept d’alliance associe donc les États-Unis, l’Europe et le Japon. | |||
== Anthony Lake == | == Anthony Lake == | ||
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[[Fichier:Anthony_Lake_0c175_7733.jpg|thumb|150px|Anthony Lake.]] | [[Fichier:Anthony_Lake_0c175_7733.jpg|thumb|150px|Anthony Lake.]] | ||
Lake | Lake est universitaire à la John Hopkins University, conseiller à la sécurité nationale du président Clinton. Il fonde une nouvelle théorie sur les cendres de la théorie du containment de la bipolarité de la Guerre Froide. Il va fabriquer un « enlargement » fabriquant une ouverture par une économie de marché. À partir du moment où on ouvre les États à une économie de marché, l’idée est qu’on va aboutir à une libéralisation politique qui va créer un grand marché mondial et instaurer une paix mondiale. | ||
Il ne s’agit plus de contenir l’ennemi ou ses alliés, mais au contraire de produire de l’enlargement par une économie de marché elle-même ouverte - et qui s’oppose à la command economy –. L’enlargement par l’économie vise par effet de ricochet un enlargement politique soit l’ouverture de régimes considérés comme bloqués et dirigistes et anti-démocratiques. | |||
C’est une conceptualisation d’un nouveau monde globalisé avec : | |||
*consolidation | *la consolidation du noyau dur des démocraties de marché : États-Unis ; Canada, Japon et Europe | ||
*consolidation | *la consolidation des « nouvelles démocraties » : Amérique latine, Afrique du Sud, Nigeria. | ||
La contre-attaque ou la stratégie de subversion libéralisante est élaborée contre les États hostiles comme l’Iran, l’Irak ou encore Cuba qui sont des États voués au blocus. L’aide humanitaire dans les régions de misère - great humanitarian concern – est mise en place pour favoriser la démocratie de marché. Émerge un nouveau monde polarisé qui n’est plus celui du libéralisme opposé au dirigisme, mais celui de la démocratie contre la barbarie. | |||
La démocratie ne peut que faire alliance avec les États-Unis. Les États en cours de libéralisation économique dont la Chine, le Vietnam sont des États avec une économie de marché développée, mais avec des régimes autoritaires ; ou encore certains États du Moyen-Orient ne génèrent plus de la bienveillance que de l’hostilité. | |||
La question qui est soulevée est quelle est l’étendue de la Barbarie ? Ou de la « Zone barbare ». Ce sont Les États tyranniques, les États contre la démocratie et l’économie de marché, mais aussi les États fondés sur des régimes militaires et/ou la religion. D’autre part, il y a un retour d’une théorie de l’unilatéralisme. On peut remarquer que le grand absent dans la pensée d’Anthony Lake est l’ONU qui est considérée comme impensée et impensable. | |||
Par ses trois analyses, Alain Joxe nous invite à penser la géopolitique américaine à partir de 1993 en termes de « stocks de représentations impériales » qui peut être rapportées aux figures suivantes : | |||
* | *la structure autistique. Il n’y a plus d’interaction à rechercher avec l’autre et il n’y a pas de compréhension du monde ; | ||
* | *le leadership des États-Unis est réaffirmé ; | ||
* | *la recherche d’un principe d’intervention expéditionnaire minimaliste. On ne va plus s’investir sur des champs bancals. | ||
Il y a la mise à distance de la tyrannie comme domination du politico-militaire sur l’économie. Pour comprendre les conséquences diplomatiques, politiques du 11 septembre, il faut comprendre cette position autistique. | |||
= Annexes = | = Annexes = | ||
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*"Moyen-Orient Et Pays Limitrophes Géographie." Moyen-Orient Et Pays Limitrophes Géographie. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 July 2014. <http://le-lutin-savant.com/g-moyen-orient-geographie.html>. | *"Moyen-Orient Et Pays Limitrophes Géographie." Moyen-Orient Et Pays Limitrophes Géographie. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 July 2014. <http://le-lutin-savant.com/g-moyen-orient-geographie.html>. | ||
*Foreign Policy,. (2015). Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle East.. Retrieved 11 August 2015, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/10/sykes-picot-treaty-of-sevres-modern-turkey-middle-east-borders-turkey/ | *Foreign Policy,. (2015). Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle East.. Retrieved 11 August 2015, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/10/sykes-picot-treaty-of-sevres-modern-turkey-middle-east-borders-turkey/ | ||
= References = | = References = | ||
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