Trade-off between inflation and unemployment - Historique des versions

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

2022-09-26T05:39:47Z

Phillips curve

← Version précédente		Version du 26 septembre 2022 à 07:39
Ligne 60 :		Ligne 60 :
	== Phillips curve ==		== Phillips curve ==

	The Phillips curve represents the short-term relationship between inflation and unemployment~~. It that that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. when inflation is high and unemployment is low~~. The ~~Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment. It assumes~~ that ~~when~~ inflation ~~rises, it increases employment~~, and ~~when it falls, it decreases employment~~. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation can be observed in a graph like the one shown below:		The Phillips curve represents the short-term relationship between inflation and unemployment. The theory claims that with economic growth comes inflation, which in turn should lead to more jobs and less unemployment. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation can be observed in a graph like the one shown below:

	[[Fichier:Intromacro courbe de phillips 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]		[[Fichier:Intromacro courbe de phillips 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

2022-09-26T05:35:16Z

Phillips curve

← Version précédente		Version du 26 septembre 2022 à 07:35
Ligne 60 :		Ligne 60 :
	== Phillips curve ==		== Phillips curve ==

	The Phillips curve represents the short-term relationship between inflation and unemployment.		The Phillips curve represents the short-term relationship between inflation and unemployment. It that that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. when inflation is high and unemployment is low. The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment. It assumes that when inflation rises, it increases employment, and when it falls, it decreases employment. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation can be observed in a graph like the one shown below:

	[[Fichier:Intromacro courbe de phillips 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]		[[Fichier:Intromacro courbe de phillips 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]
Ligne 142 :		Ligne 142 :
	== Unemployment and Inflation 1961 - 2004 ==		== Unemployment and Inflation 1961 - 2004 ==

	<gallery mode="packed-hover" widths=200px heights=200px>		<gallery mode="packed-hover" widths="200px" heights="200px">
	intro macro chomage et inflation 1961 2004 1.png\|Source: Krugman-Wells, 2009.		intro macro chomage et inflation 1961 2004 1.png\|Source: Krugman-Wells, 2009.
	Intro_macro_chomage_et_inflation_1961_2004_2.png\|Source: Mankiw-Taylor, 2006.		Intro_macro_chomage_et_inflation_1961_2004_2.png\|Source: Mankiw-Taylor, 2006.

Arthur le 12 avril 2021 à 06:40

2021-04-12T06:40:00Z

← Version précédente		Version du 12 avril 2021 à 08:40
Ligne 184 :		Ligne 184 :
	Since the central bank does not have perfect control over either the money supply or the exchange rate, it is thought that it should directly pursue a certain target rate of inflation and use the interest rate to expect that target.		Since the central bank does not have perfect control over either the money supply or the exchange rate, it is thought that it should directly pursue a certain target rate of inflation and use the interest rate to expect that target.

	There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low-interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).		There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).

	= Summary =		= Summary =

Arthur le 6 novembre 2020 à 07:46

2020-11-06T07:46:34Z

← Version précédente		Version du 6 novembre 2020 à 09:46
Ligne 28 :		Ligne 28 :
	}}		}}

	In a long-term perspective the level of economic activity does not depend on prices → classic dichotomy (differentiation between real and nominal variables and currency neutrality) → no trade-off between inflation and unemployment.		In a long-term perspective, the level of economic activity does not depend on prices → classic dichotomy (differentiation between real and nominal variables and currency neutrality) → no trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

	In the short term, prices and real output are linked (cf. AD-AO model) → possibility of trade-off between inflation and unemployment.		In the short term, prices and real output are linked (cf. AD-AO model) → possibility of trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
Ligne 184 :		Ligne 184 :
	Since the central bank does not have perfect control over either the money supply or the exchange rate, it is thought that it should directly pursue a certain target rate of inflation and use the interest rate to expect that target.		Since the central bank does not have perfect control over either the money supply or the exchange rate, it is thought that it should directly pursue a certain target rate of inflation and use the interest rate to expect that target.

	There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).		There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low-interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).

	= Summary =		= Summary =

Arthur le 5 avril 2020 à 09:09

2020-04-05T09:09:24Z

← Version précédente		Version du 5 avril 2020 à 11:09
Ligne 7 :		Ligne 7 :
	\| professeurs =		\| professeurs =
	*[[Federica Sbergami\|Sbergami, Federica]]<ref>[https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/faculty/all/federica-sbergami/ Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Genève]</ref><ref>[https://www.unine.ch/irene/home/equipe/federica_sbergami.html Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Neuchâtel]</ref><ref>[https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/14836393_Federica_Sbergami Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur Research Gate]</ref>		*[[Federica Sbergami\|Sbergami, Federica]]<ref>[https://www.unige.ch/gsem/en/research/faculty/all/federica-sbergami/ Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Genève]</ref><ref>[https://www.unine.ch/irene/home/equipe/federica_sbergami.html Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur le site de l'Université de Neuchâtel]</ref><ref>[https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/14836393_Federica_Sbergami Page personnelle de Federica Sbergami sur Research Gate]</ref>
	*[[Nicolas Maystre]]<ref>Researchgate.net - [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nicolas_Maystre Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Google Scholar - [https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B73U0wsAAAAJ&hl=en Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>VOX, CEPR Policy Portal - [https://voxeu.org/users/nicolasmaystre0 Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>[http://nicolas.maystre.ch/ Nicolas Maystre's webpage]</ref><ref>Cairn.~~ingo~~ - [https://www.cairn.info/publications-de-Nicolas-Maystre--104530.htm Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Linkedin - [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-maystre-82660737/?originalSubdomain=ch Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Academia.edu - [https://unctad.academia.edu/NicolasMaystre Nicolas Maystre]</ref>		*[[Nicolas Maystre]]<ref>Researchgate.net - [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Nicolas_Maystre Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Google Scholar - [https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=B73U0wsAAAAJ&hl=en Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>VOX, CEPR Policy Portal - [https://voxeu.org/users/nicolasmaystre0 Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>[http://nicolas.maystre.ch/ Nicolas Maystre's webpage]</ref><ref>Cairn.info - [https://www.cairn.info/publications-de-Nicolas-Maystre--104530.htm Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Linkedin - [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-maystre-82660737/?originalSubdomain=ch Nicolas Maystre]</ref><ref>Academia.edu - [https://unctad.academia.edu/NicolasMaystre Nicolas Maystre]</ref>
	\| enregistrement =		\| enregistrement =
	\| lectures =		\| lectures =

Arthur le 5 avril 2020 à 09:08

2020-04-05T09:08:50Z

← Version précédente		Version du 5 avril 2020 à 11:08
Ligne 38 :		Ligne 38 :
	{{Translations		{{Translations
	\| fr = Trade-off entre inflation et chômage		\| fr = Trade-off entre inflation et chômage
	\| es =		\| es = El equilibrio entre la inflación y el desempleo
	}}		}}

Arthur : /* Résumé */

2020-03-27T20:31:10Z

Résumé

← Version précédente		Version du 27 mars 2020 à 22:31
Ligne 186 :		Ligne 186 :
	There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).		There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).

	= ~~Résumé~~ =		= Summary =

	~~La courbe de~~ Phillips ~~décrit la relation~~ inverse ~~entre~~ inflation ~~et chômage~~.		The Phillips curve describes the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment.

	~~En poursuivant une politique~~ expansive (restrictive), ~~les autorités de politique économique peuvent choisir le long de la courbe de~~ Phillips ~~de court terme une combinaison d’inflation plus élevée~~ (~~faible~~) ~~et de chômage plus bas~~ (~~élevé~~).		By pursuing an expansive (restrictive) policy, economic policy authorities can choose along the short-term Phillips curve a combination of higher (low) inflation and lower (high) unemployment.

	Le trade-off ~~entre~~ inflation ~~et chômage se vérifie seulement dans le court terme~~. ~~La courbe de~~ Phillips ~~de long terme est une ligne verticale en correspondance du taux de chômage naturel~~.		The trade-off between inflation and unemployment only occurs in the short term. The long-term Phillips curve is a vertical line corresponding to the natural unemployment rate.

	~~La courbe de~~ Phillips ~~de court terme peut se déplacer soit à cause des changements dans les anticipations sur l’évolution~~ future ~~des prix, soit à cause de chocs de l’offre agrégée~~.		The short-term Phillips curve may shift either because of changes in expectations of future price developments or because of aggregate supply shocks.

	~~Un choc négatif de l’offre détériore le~~ trade-off ~~entre chômage et~~ inflation ~~auquel le gouvernement est confronté~~.		A negative supply shock deteriorates the trade-off between unemployment and inflation that the government faces.

	~~Une politique monétaire~~ restrictive ~~qui a comme objectif de réduire le taux d’inflation augmente temporairement le taux de chômage~~.		A restrictive monetary policy that aims to reduce the inflation rate temporarily increases the unemployment rate.

	~~Le coût de la désinflation dépend de la rapidité à laquelle les opérateurs ajustent leurs anticipations d’inflation~~.		The cost of disinflation depends on how quickly traders adjust their inflation expectations.

	~~Plus la banque centrale est crédible~~, ~~plus rapidement les opérateurs vont modifier leurs prévisions et plus bas seront les coûts pour la collectivité en terme de chômage élevé~~.		The more credible the central bank is, the faster traders will adjust their expectations and the lower the costs to the community in terms of high unemployment.

	~~En étant le contrôle de l’offre de monnaie imparfait~~, ~~la banque centrale devrait fixer ces objectifs en terme de taux d’inflation et utiliser le taux d’intérêt pour attendre ses objectifs~~.		By being the controller of the imperfect money supply, the central bank should set these targets in terms of the inflation rate and use the interest rate to wait for its targets.

	~~Quand la taux d’intérêt~~ nominal ~~est égal à zéro la politique monétaire traditionnelle n’a aucun~~ impact ~~sur le système économique car les individus gardent la monnaie et n’augmentent pas leurs dépenses~~.		When the nominal interest rate is equal to zero, traditional monetary policy has no impact on the economic system because individuals keep the money and do not increase their spending.

	= Annexes =		= Annexes =

Arthur : /* Crédibilité des banques centrales */

2020-03-27T20:30:34Z

Crédibilité des banques centrales

← Version précédente		Version du 27 mars 2020 à 22:30
Ligne 156 :		Ligne 156 :
	*Imported inflation (rising prices of imported goods).		*Imported inflation (rising prices of imported goods).

	= ~~Crédibilité des banques centrales~~ =		= Central bank credibility =

	== ~~Le rôle des banques centrales~~ ==		== The role of central banks ==

	~~L’objectif principal de l’autorité de politique monétaire est de maintenir l’inflation et ses coûts sous contrôle~~.		The primary objective of the monetary policy authority is to keep inflation and its costs under control.

	~~Quand la banque centrale essaye de réduire l’inflation en menant une politique monétaire~~ restrictive, ~~ceci entraîne une baisse de la production et~~, ~~donc~~, ~~un taux de chômage plus élevé~~.		When the central bank tries to reduce inflation by conducting a restrictive monetary policy, this leads to lower output and, therefore, higher unemployment.

	~~Un processus de désinflation peut par fois coûter très cher en terme de chômage pendant une période prolongée~~ (~~déplacement le long de la courbe de~~ Phillips ~~de court terme~~ → Y ~~bas et~~ u ~~élevé~~).		A disinflation process can at times be very costly in terms of unemployment over a prolonged period (moving along the short-term Phillips curve → Y low and u high).

	~~Il est alors essentiel que la baisse du taux d’inflation soit poursuivie de manière crédible~~: ~~plus la politique~~ restrictive ~~est crédible~~, ~~plus rapidement les opérateurs vont ajuster leurs anticipations sur l’évolution~~ future ~~du niveau général des prix et intégrer la désinflation dans leurs prévisions~~ (~~déplacement sur une courbe de~~ Phillips ~~plus basse~~ → ~~cf. graphique~~).		It is therefore essential that the decline in the rate of inflation is pursued in a credible manner: the more credible the restrictive policy, the more quickly operators will adjust their expectations of the future development of the general price level and incorporate disinflation into their forecasts (movement along a lower Phillips curve → see graph).

	~~Ceci justifie~~, ~~encore une fois~~, ~~l’exigence d’avoir des banques centrales qui soient indépendantes du pouvoir politique~~.		This justifies, once again, the need for central banks to be independent of political power.

	~~Sur le rôle des CB cf.~~ The Economist 17.09.2011 et 28.07.2012		On the role of CBs see The Economist 17.09.2011 and 28.07.2012

	== ~~Désinflation~~ ==		== Disinflation ==

	~~Plus la politique~~ restrictive ~~est crédible~~, ~~plus rapidement l’économie se déplace de~~ <math>B</math> à <math>C</math> ~~en réduisant ainsi les coûts liés à un taux de chômage élevé~~ (point <math>B</math>).		The more credible the restrictive policy is, the faster the economy moves from <math>B</math> to <math>C</math> thereby reducing the costs associated with high unemployment (point <math>B</math>).

	[[Fichier:Intromacro phillips deflation 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]		[[Fichier:Intromacro phillips deflation 1.png\|400px\|vignette\|centré]]

	== ~~L’inflation cible et la trappe à liquidité~~ ==		== Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap ==

	~~La banque centrale a plusieurs~~ instruments ~~à disposition pour réaliser ses objectifs en terme d’inflation~~. ~~L’offre de monnaie et le taux de change peuvent être vus comme des cibles intermédiaires de la politique monétaire~~, ~~étant le niveau des prix la cible ultime~~.		The central bank has several instruments at its disposal to achieve its inflation targets. The money supply and the exchange rate can be seen as intermediate targets of monetary policy, with the price level as the ultimate target.

	~~Comme la banque centrale n’a pas un contrôle parfait ni de l’offre de monnaie ni du taux de change~~, ~~on pense qu’elle devrait directement poursuivre un~~ certain ~~taux d’inflation cible et utiliser le taux d’intérêt pour attendre cet objectif~~.		Since the central bank does not have perfect control over either the money supply or the exchange rate, it is thought that it should directly pursue a certain target rate of inflation and use the interest rate to expect that target.

	~~Il y a des~~ situations ~~dans lesquelles la politique monétaire devient complètement inefficace et ne peut avoir aucun~~ impact ~~sur l’économie~~. ~~Ceci se produit quand le taux d’intérêt~~ nominal ~~est déjà égal à zéro~~. Avec un taux d’intérêt très bas tout le monde veut conserver du liquide et toute augmentation supplémentaire de l’offre de monnaie est complètement absorbée par les individus sans que le taux d’intérêt baisse et les dépenses augmentent (~~demande de monnaie parfaitement élastique~~). ~~On appelle cette~~ situation ~~une trappe à liquidité~~ (~~cf. ch.~~ 13).		There are situations in which monetary policy becomes completely ineffective and cannot have any impact on the economy. This happens when the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero. With a very low interest rate everyone wants to conserve cash and any further increase in the money supply is completely absorbed by individuals without the interest rate falling and spending increasing (perfectly elastic demand for money). This situation is known as a liquidity trap (see section 13).

	= Résumé =		= Résumé =

Arthur : /* Note sur l'inflation : sources principales */

2020-03-27T20:29:25Z

Note sur l'inflation : sources principales

← Version précédente		Version du 27 mars 2020 à 22:29
Ligne 147 :		Ligne 147 :
	</gallery>		</gallery>

	== Note ~~sur l'~~inflation : sources ~~principales~~ ==		== Note on inflation: main sources ==

	~~Dans le ch.~~ 8 ~~nous avons expliqué l'~~inflation ~~comme un phénomène purement monétaire~~: ~~c'est l'offre de monnaie qui détermine le niveau des prix et toute création monétaire~~ excessive (~~pas rapport au taux de croissance de la production~~) ~~provoque de l'~~inflation. NB.: ~~à remarquer que la création~~ excessive ~~de monnaie peut des fois être liée au régime de change~~ (~~sous un régime de change fixe~~, ~~interventions continuelles de la CB~~).		In chapter 8 we explained inflation as a purely monetary phenomenon: the supply of money determines the price level and any excessive creation of money (not in relation to the rate of growth of output) causes inflation. NB: It should be noted that excessive money creation can sometimes be linked to the exchange rate regime (under a fixed exchange rate regime, continuous BC intervention).

	~~Avec le développement du modèle de court terme~~, ~~nous sommes maintenant en mesure de comprendre d'autres~~ sources ~~de l'~~inflation:		With the development of the short-term model, we are now able to understand other sources of inflation:
	*~~Inflation par les coûts~~ (~~hausse autonome des coûts de~~ production, ~~tels que les salaires~~, ~~la rémunération du~~ capital, ~~les prix des matières premières~~... → ~~l'OA de court terme se déplace vers la gauche et les~~ P↑) ;		*Cost inflation (autonomous increase in production costs, such as wages, return on capital, raw material prices... → the short term AO moves to the left and P↑);
	*~~Inflation par la demande~~ (~~excès de demande de B~~&S ~~offerts dans l'économie~~ → la DA ~~se déplace vers la droite et les~~ P↑) ;		*Demand inflation (excess demand for G&S offered in the economy → the DA moves to the right and the P↑);
	*~~Inflation importée~~ (~~hausse des prix des biens d'importation~~).		*Imported inflation (rising prices of imported goods).

	= Crédibilité des banques centrales =		= Crédibilité des banques centrales =

Arthur : /* Chômage et inflation 1961 - 2004 */

2020-03-27T20:28:41Z

Chômage et inflation 1961 - 2004

← Version précédente		Version du 27 mars 2020 à 22:28
Ligne 140 :		Ligne 140 :
	One possible explanation is the shocks (oil prices and labour productivity) that caused the entire short-term Phillips curve to shift upwards in the 1970s (oil price shocks and stagflation) and downwards in the 1990s (technological progress and rising labour productivity).		One possible explanation is the shocks (oil prices and labour productivity) that caused the entire short-term Phillips curve to shift upwards in the 1970s (oil price shocks and stagflation) and downwards in the 1990s (technological progress and rising labour productivity).

	== ~~Chômage et inflation~~ 1961 - 2004 ==		== Unemployment and Inflation 1961 - 2004 ==

	<gallery mode="packed-hover" widths=200px heights=200px>		<gallery mode="packed-hover" widths=200px heights=200px>

Trade-off between inflation and unemployment - Historique des versions

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

Arthur le 12 avril 2021 à 06:40

Arthur le 6 novembre 2020 à 07:46

Arthur le 5 avril 2020 à 09:09

Arthur le 5 avril 2020 à 09:08

Arthur : /* Résumé */

Arthur : /* Crédibilité des banques centrales */

Arthur : /* Note sur l'inflation : sources principales */

Arthur : /* Chômage et inflation 1961 - 2004 */

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

Arthur : /* Phillips curve */

Arthur : /* Résumé */

Arthur : /* Crédibilité des banques centrales */

Arthur : /* Note sur l'inflation : sources principales */

Arthur : /* Chômage et inflation 1961 - 2004 */