中东地区的政治和宗教潮流
阿拉伯民族主义
阿拉伯民族主义是一种意识形态，根据这种意识形态，阿拉伯人构成了一个由特定的特征(文化、宗教、历史)捆绑在一起的民族，而这些特征必须在政治层面上构成：文化/民族边界必须与政治边界相对应。自奥斯曼帝国灭亡以来，阿拉伯民族主义一直受到质疑。Ba'athism代表的是复兴党运动，是大众的，而纳赛尔主义代表的是来自上层的精英。
它的起源可以追溯到1916年的阿拉伯起义，尽管其开始的时间可以追溯到更早：1517年，奥斯曼帝国征服了埃及（占领开罗）；1533年，巴格达（今伊拉克）被奥斯曼帝国人占领，从此奥斯曼帝国控制了全部领土；1798年，拿破仑-波拿巴远征埃及，标志着奥斯曼帝国与英国的联盟开始；等等。奥斯曼帝国是第一个被奥斯曼人征服的阿拉伯国家。
这个过程的另一个来源是青年土耳其人的革命。从1909年起，该运动陷入了专制主义（参见对亚美尼亚人的大屠杀）。此外，土耳其语被置于该运动的机构和利益中心。1913 年，一些西方化的阿拉伯知识分子在巴黎组织了第一次阿拉伯人大会。埃及代表以观察员的身份去了那里，由于文化上的原因，他不认为自己是阿拉伯人，因为埃及人在英国人的统治下，文化上的原因，已经有了不同的发展。
尽管如此，阿拉伯人和领土一样，还是出现了分裂。但由于第一次世界大战的原因，以及纳粹在该地区的宣传和欧洲的知识分子活动的影响，泛阿拉伯主义正在兴起。尽管如此，泛阿拉伯主义的失败还是留下了一个真空地带，使伊斯兰教得以发展。
泛阿拉伯主义
在一战的背景下，从中心/外围的角度看，传统的名流们会试图与西方人建立联盟：我们可以说到麦加的侯赛因郡主--他建立阿拉伯王国的企图会因为几个任务的缘故而失败。失望的心情是巨大的。战争结束时，费萨尔在萨提-胡斯里的陪同下，成为教育部长，也是阿拉伯民族主义的第一个理论家。他受到德国民族观念的影响，他倾向于把语言和文化方面作为决定什么是阿拉伯和非阿拉伯的要素。
由于冲突期间所做的承诺被打破，这种演变将在二战期间继续下去----塞克斯-皮科协定就是一个很好的例子。一些因素将加速这一进程：法西斯或纳粹的宣传----巴格达正在出现一场亲纳粹政变。关于阿拉伯独立的争论也很多。
Baasism
土耳其吞并圣地亚哥德亚历山大（叙利亚），将激起复兴阿拉伯复兴的复兴党的出现。1947年召开的复兴党第一次代表大会，非常强调统一（领土）、独立（自治）和阿拉伯社会主义（实现现代国家的改革）。另一个特点仍然是该运动的非宗教性，因此是世俗主义的，同时也是少数民族必须与阿拉伯民族同化，反犹太复国主义占主导地位。
Michel Aflak（1910-1989年），大马士革希腊东正教徒，1943年创立复兴党。他在叙利亚和伊拉克都将担任该党总书记一职。
这种意识形态将不断发展，我们看到不同国家的民族部分的发展。巴萨主义一被同化上台，就出现了改革，也出现了暴力（分裂、战争、镇压）的形式。早在1958年，复兴党的计划就通过建立阿拉伯联合共和国（1961年失败）而形成。
纳赛尔主义
它是以埃及总统加迈勒-阿卜杜勒-纳赛尔的思想为基础的阿拉伯政治意识形态。它是以阿拉伯社会主义为核心，加强阿拉伯人的团结，阿拉伯人的彻底独立（1922年在埃及）。是在政权建立后出现的一种意识形态（与巴萨主义不同）。1958年成立的阿拉伯联合共和国是纳赛尔主义思想的体现之一。阿拉伯联合共和国的目的之一是将叙利亚建立为埃及的一个省。有专家认为，1979年埃及与以色列签订的《戴维营协议》标志着泛阿拉伯主义的终结。埃及将被排除在阿拉伯联盟之外。
阿拉伯国家联盟（阿拉伯联盟）
1944年，埃及政府考虑建立一个阿拉伯国家联盟的发展结构。提出了几个项目：大叙利亚(西岸和外约旦河谷)、肥沃的新月、建立联盟等。亚历山大议定书》为未来的联盟奠定了基础，一年后，即1945年，阿拉伯国家联盟的首字母缩写为 "阿拉伯国家联盟"，该联盟将于一年后生效。其创始成员有埃及、沙特、伊拉克、约旦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚和北也门。其体制使决策复杂化。阿拉伯世界的特点是多样性非常大，这使得任何区域性的倡议都非常复杂。此外，阿拉伯国家之间几乎没有什么经济交流。
1971年，阿拉伯共和国联盟的成立并没有带来任何具体的结果。在马格里布地区，曾试图将各国联合起来，但没有成功。在伊朗发生伊斯兰革命后，海湾国家成立了一个协商委员会，但没有成功。
泛伊斯兰教
Wahhabism
One of the sources of Arabism or Arab nationalism is particularly important: Wahhabism, which can be defined as the will to purify Islam, the conquest of souls, according to the original principles, the salaf ("ancestors", "predecessors"), the first three generations of Islam. Its protagonist Mohammed Ben Abdelwahhab (1703-1792), preaching a reformist and puritanical Islam, allied himself with Mohammed Ibn Saud (1710 - 1765) in this project and challenged the Ottoman Caliphate, leading to a growing politicization on this issue. The pact would lead to the creation of the first Saudi emirate, that of Dariya. Ben Abdelwahhab would be in charge of religious matters and Ibn Saoud would be in charge of political and military matters. This agreement became a "pact of mutual support" and power-sharing between the Al Saud family and the followers of ben Abdelwahhab, which remained in place for almost 300 years, providing the ideological impetus for Saudi expansion.
Arab modernism or "nahda"
The Arab renaissance or Nahdah is taking shape in Egypt: Al Afghani (1839-1897), the leading theorist of Arab modernism, settled there at the age of 33. With the help of Mohammed Abduh, mufti (interpreter of Muslim law), he founded Islamic modernism with the aim of reforming many institutions. This process will also lead to a cultural development based on the historical rediscovery of the Arab world: a cultural Arabism marked by a return to the historical and glorious heritage. In this movement, no confessional distinction is made, the emphasis is on language. Political parties are created, associations, leagues and organizations are created.
The pan-Islamicism of Abdülhamid II (1842-1918) represents a more political aspect of Arab nationalism. Procedures of centralization, investigation and repression are put in place. Some activists are exiled to Egypt.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The notion of Palestine predates the Ottoman Empire: it comes from antiquity. During the period of Islamic expansion, the Holy Land was referred to as the Holy Land. As time went by, especially after the European conquests, the term Palestine was used. The inhabitants of this region will then use this term to define the territory where the future Arab state will be established.
In the 19th century, many rivalries claimed the territory (churches, states, powers, etc.), which led to conflicts taking place in the holy places. This is why, in the case of Jerusalem, the city was placed under the direct authority of Constantinople, whereas this was not the case in the rest of the Ottoman Empire.
Following the demise of the Ottoman Empire, the British continue to use the word "Palestine" or "Southern Syria" to define their mandate. On the side of Israel, they speak of an "Arab state", which has yet to come into being. The process of Arab nationalism is not very clear at the beginning - we note the waves of migration as well as the politico-religious stakes as determinants of the latter. The defence of the land is done in the name of Arabism.
The balance of power on the ground is clearly in favour of the Zionists. Tensions between the two sides will lead to massacres, assassinations and attacks. During the Great Uprising of 1938-1939, the Israeli ruling class is assaulted by the Arabs. The British, taking into account the difficulties, ask for the help of the League of Nations, which will set up the Peel Commission to carry out, in 1937, the first partition plan between the two states. It is refused by the Arab side, as are the Jewish revisionists - while the Jews in general accept it. Tensions continue until 1947, when the British hand over their mandate to the UN, which will propose a second partition plan.
The Palestinian exodus of 1948 or Nakba ("catastrophe") refers to the civil war which causes the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of Arabs from the territory. On the other hand, the refugee issue is linked to the formation of the Palestinian diaspora. The movement therefore redefined itself around the years 1958-59 to emphasize Palestinian identity - and to detach itself from Arab leaders. Yasser Arafat, who dominated the movement, no longer had as his objective the defence of Arabism or the creation of an Arab state, but rather a claim by the diaspora for the creation of a Palestinian state. From then on, the armed struggle becomes the means for the liberation of Palestine.
As early as 1963, military operations were conducted from Jordan against Israel. Arafat is beginning to be appreciated by Arabs in view of its military successes. Quickly, the Israeli retaliation forced Jordan to expel the Palestinian fighters, who would settle in Lebanon. Things changed there as well: several events, including the assassination attempt on the Israeli ambassador in London, led to Operation Galilee Peace, with Israel invading Lebanon in June 1982 to divert rockets based there and repel the Syrian army. Moreover, the image of the Palestinians in Lebanon declined as they also found themselves involved in the civil war. The movement moves its headquarters to North Africa. While it was revising its objectives downwards - even considering the idea of two states - it was saved by the intifada, a popular movement to revitalise Palestine. At the end of the Cold War, this will lead to the Oslo agreements, Yasser Arafat is praised.
On the other hand, the negotiations with Israel fail, particularly on the question of settlements and refugees. The nationalist milieu, and Hamas in particular, accuses Arafat of incompetence, corruption and nepotism. As a result, Hamas gains political power, although it advocates a more Islamic approach to the Palestinian movement: this is the transition to the third phase.
The armed struggle is resumed, just like the intifada, in a desire for jihad against the Jews. In 2006, Hamas, a Palestinian Islamist movement composed of a political and an armed wing, won elections, but is also regarded as terrorist by European countries and the United States. In particular, the notion of two governments within Palestine is emerging. Nowadays, the territory is fragmented, unemployment and corruption make the authority fragile.
The Kurdish case
The movement has to fight against the states resulting from the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire. The word "Kurdistan" has existed since at least the 12th century. The war between the Sepheviks (Iranians) and the Ottomans in 1514 marked the first fracture in the land of the Kurdish people. It is all a question of what is at stake: some Kurds side with the Shah and some with the Ottomans. In 1639, a treaty in principle established the borders of the territory: de facto, they had only existed since the 1940s.
A new political era took place under the sign of pan-Islamism and the autonomy of the Kurds was abolished, although certain benefits and rights were created for the said population (tribes). This did not prevent rivalries between them and neighbouring populations, such as Armenia, for example.
In 1919, the Kurdish political organisation was newly created: this was the first sign of Kurdish nationalism. The Treaty of Sèvres provides for the autonomy of the Kurdish territory, which could lead to independence. However, the state will not come into being:
- The settlement areas were divided (France, GB, Russia) and the Allies were not willing to question their plan.
- Armenian autonomy raised conflicts over the targeted territories.
- Kurdish nationalism is weak and cannot mobilise the masses. The community is undermined by indecision: the possibility of refusing Sèvres to link the community to Turkish nationalism for a single territory is one of them.
Turkish Kurdistan
In 1924, the words "Kurdish" and "Kurdistan" were banned in Kemalist Turkey as part of a process of assimilation and acculturation: populations were displaced, theorising that Kurds were in fact "mountain" Turks - which explains the differences at the linguistic and cultural levels. A context of permanent revolt is thus emerging. But Turkey's identity crisis at the end of the Second World War was to lead to the development of an interest in the Kurdish language, culture and history, a revival of Kurdish nationalism. In the end, coups d'état and repression with nationalist tendencies during the following years undermined the interests of the Kurdish community.
The armed struggle began in 1984, at the instigation of the PKK (the Kurdish Labour Party), supported by the Russian communist left. Since 1946, the Soviet Union has taken a close interest in the situation in this region: the Communists support Iranian Azerbaijan, self-proclaimed autonomous republic against the Iran of Rezah Pahlawi (son) - Cf. Iranian-Soviet conflict. Since the 2000s, tension has been rising again because of Shiite Islam in Iran, whereas the Iranian Kurds are mostly Sunni.
Iraqi Kurdistan
Iraqi Kurdistan is linked to the question of the Mosul villaet (see British Mandate). In 1925, the League of Nations decided to annex Mosul to the Iraqi mandate. The resurrectional movement never dried up in Iraq, which represents the specificity of Kurdish nationalism in the country. Nevertheless, the agreements with Iraq are a failure, especially with the fact that Iran no longer supports Kurdish nationalism. In 1991, when Saddam Hussein lost the war, the Kurds took the opportunity to establish de facto autonomy: the constitutionalisation of this autonomy took place as soon as Saddam Hussein's regime fell. However, since the American withdrawal in 2009, the Kurds have suffered pronounced marginalisation from central Iraq. Even more recently, the referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan in September 2017 was opposed by Baghdad.
Syrian Kurdistan
In the 1960s, the Syrian nationalist government aggravated the division between the different Kurdish communities - along the lines of a railway line. In the 2000s, the first demonstrations for an autonomy for Syrian Kurdistan emerged: the Kurds took advantage of the chaos in the country to establish a de facto one.
Since the Anglo-American intervention on Iraqi soil in 2003, aggravated by the ensuing civil war - including the Syrian crisis since 2011 - the hope of creating stable nation states has become very fragile, if not non-existent, in the Middle East. Paradoxically, the borders are still there, witnessing a very strong geopolitical history.
Ralph Peters believes that the reality on the ground (political, cultural and religious differences) calls into question borders that do not meet the expectations of the societies on the ground: countries find themselves shaped according to national, ethnic and religious criteria. This map was the subject of much debate, including within NATO.
There is a broad consensus that the national experiment has failed. Although Bashar Al-Assad is winning the war, the Syrian nation will no longer exist in the same way as before the conflict (as will the way of governing). Moreover, borders do not demarcate communities: they are linked, if not territorially, through the notion of religion, historical heritage, etc. The Syrian nation will no longer exist in the same way as before the conflict (as will the way of governing). The concept of diaspora includes all these elements.
The Persian Gulf
Some states prefer to call it "Arab Gulf". Today, the Gulf is a symbol of prosperity and luxury. It includes Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. To understand its evolution, one has to look at British policy in the region.
Historically, the Gulf was linked to Mesopotamia with the pearl trade, with centres in Bahrain and Oman. Poor regions traded in pearls, fishing and sea trade. The region experienced a certain boom with the Abbasids, but as soon as they declined, the situation became problematic again. This void was soon replaced, as from the 15th century, the European powers invested in the region: the spice trade and maritime trade in general were the main vectors. With the arrival of Great Britain, trade was strengthened through the intensification of trade with India.
British policy was abused by pirates and by the various princes who fought each other in war. From 1798, the threat also became French. From then on, Great Britain concludes special pacts with local players - the treaty with Oman to prevent French expansionism. The same procedure will be applied in relations with pirates. These treaties, which appeared in the 19th century, would determine British economic and strategic policy insofar as their renewal made it possible to secure the Gulf: although the region was unstable, more and more privateers and princes pledged not to wage war against each other.
Some states took advantage of the outbreak of the First World War to strengthen their international position: Kuwait signed an agreement with Great Britain to strengthen the protectorate. After the independence of India and Pakistan, the British decided to withdraw from that region in the 1960s. All the local princes, having made alliances with the British, were going to ask themselves the question of the future of the region: the creation of the states we know today was taking place at that very moment. Shortly afterwards, the discovery of oil changed the situation and led to renewed Western interest in the region: the second wave of independence took place in the 1970s.
Political Islam
It is an ideology, a political programme, whose aim is to conquer power in order to Islamize society according to the reading of certain religious sources and texts by the actors of the said ideology.
It appeared as soon as pan-Arabism (a movement of opposition to Western domination) failed. The destruction of Israel, symbol of foreign power, also returns in this imaginary. According to specialists, this era began in 1979, when the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel was signed: the Egyptian "betrayal" only reinforced the antagonisms towards the Jewish state.
Several characteristic features:
- Fundamentalism is also part of political Islam (and in the Muslim world since the 8th century). Wahhabism (18th century), a very rigorous, revolutionary fundamentalism, plays a very important role.
- Fundamentalism is a will to make history in order to return to the foundations of religion.
- Colonization, a concrete manifestation of European domination over the Arab world, is an integral part of the political imagination.
- The struggles for independence as a reaction to Western penetration: the Islamic tradition is strongly imprinted in it, and the religious concept will contribute a great deal to it. The ideology of national liberation.
The origin of this movement, in our century, can be traced to the Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt, 1928), whose protagonist is Hassan Al-Banna. This organization will appear on the political scene to support the Islamization of Egyptian society. The originality of the movement lies in the fact that this political organization has a paramilitary force - the presence of the military tradition and the British on the territory. It considers the Koran as its constitution. The movement will have its ups and downs. Although it is not in favour of armed action, it will still take part in the 1948 war (pretext of treason) as well as in the 1952 revolution.
Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966), the theoretician of a potential Islamic state, was to play a very important role in the role of political Islam: tortured, repressed because he was a dissident, he theorized that such societies - westernized, led by the pan-Arab nationalist - could not be built on the basis of Islam. They have fallen into "Jahiliya", thus legitimizing the use of violence (against a Muslim ruler). He will be condemned to death and will decide not to resort to the decision in order to reactivate the imagination of the martyrs.
While his thinking remains marginal, things change in 1979. The ideological plan was upset by the pan-Arab failure, as was the symbolic, affected by the agreement with Israel. Elsewhere, the presence of Soviet forces in Afghanistan would lead to a war lasting from 1979 to 1989, pitting the USSR against the Mujaheddin ("holy warriors"). The notion of martyrs became widespread in the struggle against any power (Western, communist...), contributing to the development of the movement. Some states want to react by promoting Islamist policies, taking advantage of the context to establish their monopoly of authority (in unstable regions).
In the 1990s, specialists concluded that political Islam had failed because Islamist movements had not succeeded in taking power. It soon became clear that the conclusion was too hasty: once the war was won against the Soviets leaving Afghanistan, the jihad would be launched against the United States and its crusader allies, Israel.
The rhetoric, approaches and tactics are different, because violence is now sacrificial. We are moving beyond the stage of martyrdom, it takes a completely different form: the appearance of (suicide) attacks, the use of terrorism. The actors have evolved: activist elites are joining Al Qaeda. We are also witnessing the relocation of these actors, which will mainly take place in Iraq. The situation in the country is peculiar, because the Shiite minority is regaining power in a context of total chaos - the Baath Party has been banned since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. With the Sunni population pushed out of power, the Shiites become the first target of al-Qaeda (see al-Tawihd de al Zarqaoui) in Iraq. From 2014, the formation will be designated as an Islamic state.